bmoochie said:
Since you are in here, does it seem to you that XOM is being artificially held down? It seems the last week or so it pops up hard then methodically just works its way back down to negative. Just curious your thoughts.
- Yes I do.
To add some additional info -
- Norway Health Fund decided to exit their XOM position, 1.13% stake, or just over 45 million shares. They announced last week. Typically you don't begin your position exit on the day you announce. (duh..) I have accounted for a minimum of 30 million in share volume adjustments since March. I figure they have been out of their position by now and only had a few million shares to exit since their announcement in the last 5 trading days. (Norway is short NatGas and I hope XOM sticks it to them)
- XOM volume adjustments. So, XOM 65DMA on Volume is 16.27 million. Of late, Volume is around 8 million at 3:00pmET. By the Closing Bell it's at 11 or 12 million. 15 minutes After The Closing Bell its around 14 million. Approximately 50% of the 65DMA Volume is trading in the last hour? Consistently. .... Sure it is. The old average daily adjustment was 800,000 to 1.2 million. Adjustments at 2.0 million at 15 minutes after the closing bell are to be monitored.
- EIA continues it weird ways in numbers reporting. They are following JB's Green Energy agenda. Any thing to make fossil fuels look bad, add price pressure, etc. EIA will "fix" the numbers in the Monthly Adjustments to reflect more of reality, but no one pays attention to the Monthly numbers as the trade relies on hte Weekly Reports.
- 23Q2 XOM will be a debt free company. Think about that for a sec,....debt free in a super capital intensive biz that looks at 10, 15, 20 year paybacks. XOM will have more cash than LT Debt at the end of Q2. FCF going forward, $15 to $30 billion a quarter. And, still can't get a credit rating agency to give them an update. Last update was 2019/2020 and were given a "Negative Outlook". Rating agencies not going to help a fossil fuel company because it's not PC. Debt free come the end of Q2, that's a wow!
- Baker Hughes reports rigs declining in US. (I think last week they raised the count by 1). Regardless, less rigs than 2020 I believe is the current number.
- Goldman Sachs announced a price cut on crude oil outlook. The day before Jeff Currie, economist, GS, gave a NO CHANGE on crude oil going forward and he has been a bull for a while. Jeff is a $95+ guy. He's more correct in his forecasts than Ed Morse/BoA. This shows that GS has internal struggles within their own company. I do do think GS gave a negative outlook to get their whales positioned in XOM while the share price pressure is on.
- Now through Sep is generally the time energy companies are going to make money and share prices move up. I see nothing different other than a slow start.
- So, why a slow start? Well, every sector in the market can have inflation except for energy. Now why is that? I believe the NY Fed has a hand in Crude Futures because the SPR is not available to flood the physical market and suppress prices as in 2022. China is importing more crude now than before.
- Saudi made mention again of the disconnect between paper crude and physical oil price. That 1.0 million barrel voluntary cut for July, announced June 4th, can be extended. Saudi is going to drive prices up. Before someone jumps in and says Russia will take up the slack....Russia will have a hard time keeping production pace without U.S. parts to replace failing/worn out parts.
- XOM continues the
buyout buyback program purchasing 625,000 to 650,000 shares a day. That's like +$70 million every afternoon. By the time XOM is finished in 2024/25, outstanding shares should be around 3.8 billion.
- XOM will raise the div and should see the increase payable in Q4. (bullish)
I just continue to add shares.
In closing - today is Flag Day, my flags are out. And, today is National Bourbon Day. Cheers!
I hope this information helps you in some way.
