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EngrAg14
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FTAG 2000 said:

SF2004 said:

AgCPA95 said:


They even cooked the books by changing the calculation.

This ain't good but once again the scam markets pump.
How did they change the calcs? Cut out everything but cost of air to breathe?


They reduced the areas like housing and such that are clearly about to get bad and anf increased areas like cars that have peaked (probably) and should be showing a decrease.
Slappy007
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EngrAg14 said:

FTAG 2000 said:

SF2004 said:

AgCPA95 said:


They even cooked the books by changing the calculation.

This ain't good but once again the scam markets pump.
How did they change the calcs? Cut out everything but cost of air to breathe?


They reduced the areas like housing and such that are clearly about to get bad and anf increased areas like cars that have peaked (probably) and should be showing a decrease.
They also decreased the data period from the previous two years to previous one year.
Brewmaster
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thanks a bunch for posting this. Since our fiasco with USAA and a national body shop chain (I can't mention), I've been on the look for different auto insurance, but would gladly switch everything over. We settled for $ well over the vehicle's value with the chain body shop. USAA and several other big insurers push this chain non stop (they get big discounts in return).

On the hunt for a new bank too!
Chef Elko
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Probably Caliber
irish pete ag06
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Shameless plug, but feel free to reach out if you'd like me to shop it for you. We're fully independent.

I will say this. Chubb's personal lines appetite is extremely limited to a starting point of primary residences of $1 million or more in replacement cost. They will take a look at $750K, but prefer 1 million or more. Their prices do not get competitive until $2.5 mil or more.

Now, saying all of that, their claims process is the gold standard in the biz. You're paying a premium to Chubb for insurance to be a white glove experience.

It's also why I'm bullish on them as a stock. They have a great business model.
irish pete ag06
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right back in the range on the QQQ. CPI didn't move it.

I think the market is waiting on the FED's statements.
Golf1
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$414 was the model T for December 2021 highs and 2022 lows so I was looking for a play to enter puts there. We got close enough during pre market for me to start adding some but I was a little hesitant because the CPI numbers were decent except for core CPI. Was not expecting this big of a drop though before 10 am.
Ragoo
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I love days when I position into the direction correct and get out with the first big move missing the second move for the multibagger.
Boy Named Sue
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So what do we think the SPY ranges are today? Haven't had time to read back over the thread, and I'm sure some things have changed anyway

Edit: and just so I'm contributing, I bought Friday 409Cs about 30 minutes ago thinking we see 410.50 and then possibly 411.74 today. But I could be wrong!
Quacked
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this was me w/ 410p today
deadbq03
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perma Brew doomster said:

thanks a bunch for posting this. Since our fiasco with USAA and a national body shop chain (I can't mention), I've been on the look for different auto insurance, but would gladly switch everything over. We settled for $ well over the vehicle's value with the chain body shop. USAA and several other big insurers push this chain non stop (they get big discounts in return).

On the hunt for a new bank too!
I went with Amica when I left USAA. I haven't had a claims experience yet, but they're rated highly there.

Similar to USAA, they're member owned, so you'll get refund/dividend checks back.

Auto rates were slightly higher than USAA, but home rates were vastly lower (why I switched). Anyone who lives in TX or FL and uses USAA for property insurance needs to GTFO. I heard it from the horse's mouth years ago when we moved back to TX. My first home (or rather tiny condo) was in CA, and USAA had great rates there. Moving back to TX, my rate was higher even though the property was like half the value. I asked and the USAA guy reluctantly told me that they can't compete in TX and FL.

I still haven't switched bank because I'm lazy and have way too many autopay/etc tied to it.
irish pete ag06
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deadbq03 said:

perma Brew doomster said:

thanks a bunch for posting this. Since our fiasco with USAA and a national body shop chain (I can't mention), I've been on the look for different auto insurance, but would gladly switch everything over. We settled for $ well over the vehicle's value with the chain body shop. USAA and several other big insurers push this chain non stop (they get big discounts in return).

On the hunt for a new bank too!
I went with Amica when I left USAA. I haven't had a claims experience yet, but they're rated highly there.

Similar to USAA, they're member owned, so you'll get refund/dividend checks back.

Auto rates were slightly higher than USAA, but home rates were vastly lower (why I switched). Anyone who lives in TX or FL and uses USAA for property insurance needs to GTFO. I heard it from the horse's mouth years ago when we moved back to TX. My first home (or rather tiny condo) was in CA, and USAA had great rates there. Moving back to TX, my rate was higher even though the property was like half the value. I asked and the USAA guy reluctantly told me that they can't compete in TX and FL.

I still haven't switched bank because I'm lazy and have way too many autopay/etc tied to it.
What insurance is doing in Texas and Florida is just insane, but when you know why, it makes a little more sense.

Texas specifically got torched on loss ratio in 2021 with the freeze (this is still hitting bottom lines of the carriers now)
Then in 2022, nearly all insurance carriers got torched on their investments.

They are using 2023 to "de-risk" specific geographic areas. Texas being one of them that not many carriers want to put "risk-on" in. So this is called a "hard market," meaning carriers don't want to write insurance. so they:

Increase premiums drastically
non-renew policies
make claims processes absolute nightmares
etc.

The market is showing some infantile signs of starting to soften, but it's just ludicrous what some quote.

Quoted my own house the other day and $2500 was the low end all the way to $7500 (from travelers, lol, why not just say we don't want the business... this is essentially offering about 50% asking price on a piece of property... traveler's is thinking if some idiot is willing to pay THAT, we'll take it)
Golf1
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Model T today is 411 along with yesterdays highs. We broke yesterdays lows earlier and I wouldn't be shocked to do it again today. Kinda leaning towards an engulfing candle on the daily.


Edit: keep seeing stuff on social media from fed comments that sound positive so may not retest lows like I thought.
trip98
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all I have to contribute is......GO ASO!!!

past performance...yada yada yada....but it rockets like this then evens out a bit or comes down a little....then a while later it repeats. Lets hope that happens again.

BUT what I have learned from this thread and OA1 is sell CC's when the stock is up or moving up. So I am patiently waiting to see how this latest move up goes. Timing is impossible but better to sell on upswing than down

And I'm not looking to recoup full investment by selling CC's so when I do sell it will be for a much higher strike price even though that means smaller sale price. That way if called out it's a really big win and if not it just chips away at cost little by little
Boy Named Sue
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I was considering doing this with VLO. Just trying to decide on strike and expiration. Any thoughts?
deadbq03
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I switched pre-freeze, but thanks for color there.

My suspicion is that USAA has a higher percentage of their membership in TX and FL (ex-military) then other major insurance companies - and therefore the hurricane risk is higher for them than most other national companies. I'm probably wrong, but that's what I thought when I heard this.
Boy Named Sue
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SPY keeps testing 410.75 on the 1-minute. Maybe it'll bust through here.
Charismatic Megafauna
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deadbq03 said:

I went with Amica when I left USAA. I haven't had a claims experience yet, but they're rated highly there.

Similar to USAA, they're member owned, so you'll get refund/dividend checks back.

The notes I've gotten make it sound like amica has discontinued their refund program indefinitely. But overall i have been pretty happy with them as a provider.
trip98
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No idea...not familiar at all with VLO
FTAG 2000
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FTAG 2000
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seriously though, someone explain ASO.
deadbq03
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

deadbq03 said:

I went with Amica when I left USAA. I haven't had a claims experience yet, but they're rated highly there.

Similar to USAA, they're member owned, so you'll get refund/dividend checks back.

The notes I've gotten make it sound like amica has discontinued their refund program indefinitely. But overall i have been pretty happy with them as a provider.
Good to know. I got Feb checks, but I don't think I got any in March so that may well be true.

But yeah, the thing that impressed me most was when they sent an inspector to my property and then reduced my premium after the inspection. Much more thorough than just answering questions over the phone and getting a blanket algorithmic rate, sight unseen.
Boy Named Sue
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There's some volume. Looks like lots of disagreement
Boy Named Sue
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Alright let's go test 411.50 again and make some real money this afternoon
gougler08
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Woah, big drop
Boy Named Sue
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It tried and rejected hard. Where's support? 409.30? 408.25?
Golf1
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Was there news or something?
Triple_Bagger
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March FOMC Meeting Minutes:

Fed lowered their target interest rate and is considering pausing rate hikes after bank issues.

Fed is also predicting a recession later this year.
Boy Named Sue
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Fed minutes then first move, then rug pull. Tempted to buy calls here but I'm scared lol
FTAG 2000
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Bought a couple of XSP411s for today.
jsap
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irish pete ag06 said:

Shameless plug, but feel free to reach out if you'd like me to shop it for you. We're fully independent.

I will say this. Chubb's personal lines appetite is extremely limited to a starting point of primary residences of $1 million or more in replacement cost. They will take a look at $750K, but prefer 1 million or more. Their prices do not get competitive until $2.5 mil or more.

Now, saying all of that, their claims process is the gold standard in the biz. You're paying a premium to Chubb for insurance to be a white glove experience.

It's also why I'm bullish on them as a stock. They have a great business model.
I'm in the market for landlord insurance. Is that something you can shop it for me? Feel free to reach me at csjsap @ gmail.com.
thanks
Bird Poo
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How low will it go in 2023? 3600? 3800?
deadbq03
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FTAG 2000 said:

Bought a couple of XSP411s for today.
Honest question… why XSP instead of SPY? Those bid-ask spreads are atrocious.
trip98
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FTAG 2000 said:

seriously though, someone explain ASO.
Not sure exactly what you're wondering about.

The were private and rumor was had gentlemen's agreement with Dicks to not open in each others backyard. Supposedly that started to crumble so they sold to VC b/c VC had the cash to rapidly expand their footprint. They are now opening stores in new areas.

Another nugget I've seen are projections for the sporting goods market is expected to continue to grow. Population growth = more kids in sports = buying more clothes every dang season. Plus they reach a wide breadth of customers that spreads out revenue stream....kids sports during school year...then hunting season...then fishing season. Constantly have those folks coming thru the door. Not to mention a loyal following.

VC also really ramped up their online offerings so trying to get into that channel more.

They have started to creep with more and more ASO brand items though. However still maintaining a good mix of brands......for now at least.

That's my understanding and my take on it so that and your own cash will buy you a cup of coffee!!
Brewmaster
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ahh, thanks for that info! I was curious on homeowner's insurance as well, glad you mentioned that!
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