Is there away to have the indicator alert in TOS when it flips?
Stock Markets
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Last: 6 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
Newbie question on premiums. SPY is at 398.7 as I type. 399Cs are $2.60, and 402Cs are $1.34. It seems nutty to me for those to be so high when ATM or way OTM. Is that a normal fed day thing? Or are my expectations of what's normal just off base?
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Iv is crazy today since everybody knows the market is going to go bonkers at 1 but nobody knows which way
I think they're gonna run spy up to the upper descending trendline at about 402.5 then pull the rug.
I think they're gonna run spy up to the upper descending trendline at about 402.5 then pull the rug.
By the way, in TOS if you right click on the strategy on your chart and click "Show Report", it will show you every trigger to buy and sell, and P/L based on buying 100 shares each time. Pretty neat.AgEng06 said:
Is there away to have the indicator alert in TOS when it flips?
It is being driven by some chance there is no rate hike or even 0.25 point the market may shoot upwards.Boy Named Sue said:
Newbie question on premiums. SPY is at 398.7 as I type. 399Cs are $2.60, and 402Cs are $1.34. It seems nutty to me for those to be so high when ATM or way OTM. Is that a normal fed day thing? Or are my expectations of what's normal just off base?
So its a total gamble but Fed days like earnings tend to be have higher than usual cost.
I personally am expecting a 3% swing either way and a 50 point hike since the Fed should do what's necessary given numbers recently and not worry about bank discussions till next months meeting.
whatever you do, play it small, and wait for the first move. You can almost always fade the first move.
Yeah, it's basic options stuff and the insurance analogy applies. More volatility = more risk = higher premiums. I was just caught off guard.
I'm betting Powell goes optimistic and helps the markets, whistling past the graveyard.
I'm betting Powell goes optimistic and helps the markets, whistling past the graveyard.
Hey Farmer, what's the takeaway here?
we have more oil on hand than normal but less refined products? So buying into refining companies is the play?
I know I'm oversimplifying here but if you make it any more complicated you'll lose me
we have more oil on hand than normal but less refined products? So buying into refining companies is the play?
I know I'm oversimplifying here but if you make it any more complicated you'll lose me
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Refineries running at 85% to 88% efficiency...refineries have been delaying maintenance....can't use crude up fast enough...it's an inventory Long reported in crude.....but since refineries are inefficient they cant utilize crude to make refined products(fast enough) and still need the plant to go down for maintenance....and this should be the BUILD season for refined products and it's going the opposite direction. Bullish. They can't catch up. XOM bringing that Beaumont expansion on line was perfect timing. Don't focus on that crude number now...focus on refined products. Crude is short, world wide, it will play out..Towns03 said:
Hey Farmer, what's the takeaway here?
we have more oil on hand than normal but less refined products? So buying into refining companies is the play?
I know I'm oversimplifying here but if you make it any more complicated you'll lose me
Demand in U.S. is 0.5million barrels a day greater than 2019 (pre-freakin-COVID). Let that sink in versus all the demand destruction the media pushes on us.
"So, buying into refining companies is the play?" ..... A few weeks ago I posted,....Buy refineries, crack spreads are juicy for all of 2023, doesn't matter which one - just pick one. .... I wouldn't expect you to remember individual posts, my point is, you are on the correct path/thought process/etc.
XOM is a refiner too.
Right now XOM can't miss. Again, their leadership team since pre-Covid has had the midas touch. I can't say enough good things about that leadership team. They are in rare air.
Hope this helps. Rock on.
Did the transcript get leaked? Market selling off so far and the 10yr yield is dropping.
I expect a flash back to the morning's high at least. But who knows. Gonna enjoy watching this one while sitting on my hands.
I expect a flash back to the morning's high at least. But who knows. Gonna enjoy watching this one while sitting on my hands.
Inflation in UK inflation reported at 10.4% higher than January. They blame it on energy.
Our energy prices are below what they were compared to last year and will have a favorable monthly comparison going forward. Wheat prices are below 2021 levels. Milk futures back to 2021. Only Cattle prices I see as increasing. To me suggest inflation is dying and tighter lending from banks is a bonus.
Our energy prices are below what they were compared to last year and will have a favorable monthly comparison going forward. Wheat prices are below 2021 levels. Milk futures back to 2021. Only Cattle prices I see as increasing. To me suggest inflation is dying and tighter lending from banks is a bonus.
Trying to learn here... We had the MA cross, but the indicator didn't trigger. Is that because we still haven't had the 12 MA backtest yet?
when is fed boy, 2:00 central?
n/m, started already! charts going bonkers.
n/m, started already! charts going bonkers.
1 pm cst. so in 2.5 minsperma Brew doomster said:
when is fed boy, 2:00 central?
Gonna be sitting right on 4000 for the decision
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Dan Scott said:
Inflation in UK inflation reported at 10.4% higher than January. They blame it on energy.
Our energy prices are below what they were compared to last year and will have a favorable monthly comparison going forward. Wheat prices are below 2021 levels. Milk futures back to 2021. Only Cattle prices I see as increasing. To me suggest inflation is dying and tighter lending from banks is a bonus.
Energy Windfall Profits Tax in Europe will only decrease energy supply and drive prices upward.
Raising 25 BPS
25 bps. Fed not changing anything with respect to recent events.
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So fading this first move?
That's my plan.
I just scalped a couple calls off the spike now looking at fading with a 3/23 expiry put
I just scalped a couple calls off the spike now looking at fading with a 3/23 expiry put
I'm waiting
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
It should have triggered
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
yeah, boom, lots of selling nowSpoony Love said:
That's my plan.
I just scalped a couple calls off the spike now looking at fading with a 3/23 expiry put
Well damn, it still hasn't on these last moves. The last trigger was at 10:10am.
I sold both around 401.25 and picked up a put for tomorrow way down there. I'm about to take it off for 50%
checked mine - no trigger
Well, you shouldn't be trading right now anyway.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Hmm, so I wonder why TV triggered but TOS didn't?
TDI didn't trigger it.
that's why
if i lower TDI threshold a few - it triggers
that's why
if i lower TDI threshold a few - it triggers
but tell me - why are you trying to trade this? Just let J Pow finish.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
it's moving 20 points within 15 seconds.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
These are quick scalps when the minutes get released. You can follow the flow quickly but you have to cut quickly as well. FOMC minutes are some of my favorites because its easy to clip 30% on a call or put just by following the flow. But it turns in a second and will be down 30%. Once you hit that nice percentage, cut it and move on.
Not trying to trade this... I'm just watching and trying to learn how the indicator is working, before I start paper trading it to learn more.
Btw, I greatly appreciate you putting it together and sharing here.
Btw, I greatly appreciate you putting it together and sharing here.
Wild
that 397.50 area was the perfect spot for bulls to hold before we drop big.
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