Bought 4005Cs at .70. So far so good
Stock Markets
26,236,684 Views |
236116 Replies |
Last: 12 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
Bought lotto XSP 401s at .15
SPY Lotto tweeted at $0.12 sold at $0.50
Trade exposure less than 5 minutes total.
Trade exposure less than 5 minutes total.
I was in Spy 398 calls expiring today at .22 and sold at .37… these things are worth 1.4 now…
the 2:50 reaction is going to be binary. they're either going to dump it to a support level and probably rip it or they'll take off and keep running. I would not enter here and would probably give it 1-2 minutes after 2:50 before deciding if you want to enter.
I'd probably long 4035 if it gets there.
If I'm ranking probabilities:
I'd probably long 4035 if it gets there.
If I'm ranking probabilities:
- aggressive buying: 15%
- pull back and then settle around 4040 ES: 40%
- Flat action around 4040 ES: 20%
- dump: 25%
Got out of my SPY and SPX calls at the perfect time. Up $2800 today and looking for more lol
Battling here right now. Still not clear to me. I think more dip before a rip.
399 pin?
Everything says up on the markets expecting Fed to pause. I don't disagree but am wondering if a Trump arrest is announced after the markets close if we would have an initial flash down. I'm in SPY shares and am buying tomorrow expiring $395 puts as a potential flash knee-jerk opportunity to buy more shares risk free below there. If nothing happens I still have through overnight and premarkets for any Fed day jitters.
tried to get filled at 2:59 and didn't. oh well. ES is at 4040 like I thought.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
Sep 25, 2017
Posts:
5,430
How long do you want to ignore this user?
API says...Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:When I wrote that original post 5 days ago, March 16th, it was $108 as a target but I didn't type it.cjo03 said:Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:From 5 days ago.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
I'm not watching all O&G, but the one's I'm watching are green, except for XOM. I've been preaching XOM manipulation along with WTI & Brent. Okay, if you don't buy off on conspiracy or manipulation, just consider it luck that everyone else is buying all other O&G's and totally missing XOM....a real diamond in the rough...a hidden gem... You might consider buying.
I hope somebody jumped on this.
Paging Benelli M4 Single Shot, brother I hope you hung on to PXD.
what is your current XOM target this round? you've been nails over the past year.
HOWEVER,...
XOM 65 Day Moving Average Volume was 16 million
On Friday, March 17th, the Regular Session Volume was 43.2 million (there was a 21 million share volume adjustment 8 minutes after the closing bell). The After Hours session ended with 5.95 million volume.
Yesterday, March 20, the Regular Session Volume was 32 million with After Hours session at just under 2 million.
All this took place in an upward price moving market. - Bullish - Frankly, I don't know what the hell took place but it's bullish. Somebody got Long and someone exited.
For this week, I'm keeping $108 as the conservative target and potential to move to $110/$112. We are getting close to month end and may see some setback (maybe) at month end.
Between today and month end,...if API numbers today and EIA numbers tomorrow, both show significant draws, that high end of my range is very doable. We should see significant draws in both sets of numbers.
Hope this helps.
Crude = +3.3M
Cush = -0.8M
Disty = -1.9M
Gas = -1.1M
Big 3 draw of about 0.5M in building season
The 20 China Super Tankers for March crude loadout in the U.S. are starting to show up. That's 2 million barrels per vessel.
Moo!
I was in Port Aransas a few weeks ago. One of the VLCCs cruised by heading East and I asked my companion if she'd ever seen $156 million before
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
Sep 25, 2017
Posts:
5,430
How long do you want to ignore this user?
- XOM trading Volume today 31 million.
- Close showed ~20 million and within 20 minutes it got an adjustment upward of 11 million more.
- Mind you, the 65 Day Moving Average for volume was 16 million as of last Thursday and today it is 17.11.
- Big Volume days Last Friday(43 mill), yesterday(32 mill) and today(31 mill) - all in an upward price market channel.
- If that's not bullish, what is?
- Close showed ~20 million and within 20 minutes it got an adjustment upward of 11 million more.
- Mind you, the 65 Day Moving Average for volume was 16 million as of last Thursday and today it is 17.11.
- Big Volume days Last Friday(43 mill), yesterday(32 mill) and today(31 mill) - all in an upward price market channel.
- If that's not bullish, what is?
oldarmy1 said:
SPY Lotto tweeted at $0.12 sold at $0.50
Trade exposure less than 5 minutes total.
OA in full scalp mode. A man after my own heart.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Congrats on a solid day.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Bottom video
Edit. Language so deleted. Sorry.
Edit. Language so deleted. Sorry.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
CATHIE WOOD SAYS BELIEVE OUR COMPANIES WILL SEE EXPONENTIAL AND SUPER-EXPONENTIAL GROWTH - CNBC
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 21, 2023
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
I'm bored…..
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Stock based compensation is starting to piss me off. I looked at several 10Ks today tonight of stocks that have been crushed. Huge stock based compensation in all of them. Crappy company goes public, uses it's stock as currency and dilutes shareholder. If your company is cash flow negative and loses millions/quarter, your salary including stock shouldn't exceed $1M. WTF. Start acting like a startup entrepreneur and stop using shareholder money.
An example is Clover Health. The company has never had a profitable quarter. Burning cash. They pay their board members $50K/year cash base + up to 20K based on committee. In addition, they receive, $200K in RSUs. Some Clover board members were paid more than ExxonMobil board members. WTF
In 2022, the old Clover received 16M shares, 20% vest every 5 years. About $3M worth of stock vested in January for this guy. Andrew Toy became CEO in January and was awared 10M shares. On top of that they receive PRSUs if certain conditions met.
If a company gives adjusted EBITDA which excludes stock based compensation then, F them!
An example is Clover Health. The company has never had a profitable quarter. Burning cash. They pay their board members $50K/year cash base + up to 20K based on committee. In addition, they receive, $200K in RSUs. Some Clover board members were paid more than ExxonMobil board members. WTF
In 2022, the old Clover received 16M shares, 20% vest every 5 years. About $3M worth of stock vested in January for this guy. Andrew Toy became CEO in January and was awared 10M shares. On top of that they receive PRSUs if certain conditions met.
If a company gives adjusted EBITDA which excludes stock based compensation then, F them!
Here's a stock that can be worth a decent trade. BRDS - $0.13, $35M market cap.
Founder and chair of board bought 1M shares today. He owns over 10% of stock. The CEO bought 200,000 shares yesterday.
They' say they will be cash flow positive in 2023 and identified $20-30M in cost savings. This stock was $9 in December 2021 lol.
Founder and chair of board bought 1M shares today. He owns over 10% of stock. The CEO bought 200,000 shares yesterday.
They' say they will be cash flow positive in 2023 and identified $20-30M in cost savings. This stock was $9 in December 2021 lol.
We took a good idea (aligning incentives of top executives and decision makers with the success of the company and it's shareholders) and pushed it too far. Now it's something that is almost demanded by kids coming right out of college that have almost no impact on the financial bottom line.Dan Scott said:
Stock based compensation is starting to piss me off. I looked at several 10Ks today tonight of stocks that have been crushed. Huge stock based compensation in all of them. Crappy company goes public, uses it's stock as currency and dilutes shareholder. If your company is cash flow negative and loses millions/quarter, your salary including stock shouldn't exceed $1M. WTF. Start acting like a startup entrepreneur and stop using shareholder money.
An example is Clover Health. The company has never had a profitable quarter. Burning cash. They pay their board members $50K/year cash base + up to 20K based on committee. In addition, they receive, $200K in RSUs. Some Clover board members were paid more than ExxonMobil board members. WTF
In 2022, the old Clover received 16M shares, 20% vest every 5 years. About $3M worth of stock vested in January for this guy. Andrew Toy became CEO in January and was awared 10M shares. On top of that they receive PRSUs if certain conditions met.
If a company gives adjusted EBITDA which excludes stock based compensation then, F them!
I work for a closely held family company (~$500 million) and am one of the few employees with (non-voting) shares. I make it a point to meet with all new employees in my department and had an entry level financial analyst with under a year of real experience ask about stock options in his first one-on-one with me and why he wasn't offered that. Guy is 23 and makes $75k and has bonus potential up to 15% in a low COL area, but sees his recent grad friends in tech sales getting $200K of restricted stock as a sign on bonus and six digit salaries and it skews everything.
I was straight with him, and said he'd be rewarded in both bonus and raises for great work, but we don't give it all up front. We're a conservative financial company and if we paid everyone like tech workers we'd go out of business in days. We cash flow positive and show profit every year or we stop existing, there is no VC fund to do a Series F because we already burned through Series A through E cash.
That being said, as an investor, it's all disclosed and tracked. And you know what you're getting into with any tech IPO.
I'm not discounting what you're saying and I'm intrigued but can you post a link showing that? I usually avoid penny stocks but a small gamble might be worth it.Dan Scott said:
Here's a stock that can be worth a decent trade. BRDS - $0.13, $35M market cap.
Founder and chair of board bought 1M shares today. He owns over 10% of stock. The CEO bought 200,000 shares yesterday.
They' say they will be cash flow positive in 2023 and identified $20-30M in cost savings. This stock was $9 in December 2021 lol.
Earnings Presentation
Chairman Share purchase
CEO Share Purchase
New funding news out today
Chairman Share purchase
CEO Share Purchase
New funding news out today
Quote:
he funding strengthens Bird's liquidity position, and further enables the company to achieve its expectations of $15 to $20 million in adjusted EBITDA and $5 to $10 million in free cash flow this year. The new funding comes from a variety of new investors into Bird Global.
The company expects to raise up to $10 million of additional funding as part of this round, as a result of additional investor interest.
Thank you sir
WWE looks good as an income generator. Vince wants to sell about 25% higher than it is now. It's been stuck around $85. They'll have new TV deal next year that should be good. Lately their live events have been sold out and most recent Royal Rumble had record merchandise sales. I think downside is limited. They generate lots of cash.
Sell April $80 put for $2. Annualized 10% return. Or buy some and sell $90 calls for up to $4/month. As long as buyout talks are happening call premiums are juiced. At worst a sale is announced and stock goes to $110. You still make money.
Sell April $80 put for $2. Annualized 10% return. Or buy some and sell $90 calls for up to $4/month. As long as buyout talks are happening call premiums are juiced. At worst a sale is announced and stock goes to $110. You still make money.
Maybe time to get back into BOIL. Saved this tweet from February for the seasonality chart.
Natural gas made a strong move after dipping below $2. That was a treat. Seasonality reverses here as storage begins to fill. pic.twitter.com/0P6sAZy3LC
— doppel (@doppel_ichi) February 23, 2023
Inverted H&S on TLT has formed over last 3-6 months. Neckline around 110.
Watch this for potential breakout above 110 range. Will correlate to lower yield on the long bond.
Watch this for potential breakout above 110 range. Will correlate to lower yield on the long bond.
Captain obvious but doubt there is anything to do until the announcement.
I don't even care what the fed does.
I don't even care what the fed does.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Just lol.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Looking at that as well. Stupid premium right now.
Is NVDA ever going to stop?!
Thanks for sharing. I hadn't even considered them as something to invest in. I live in Abilene and there's a fleet here in town.
Diving in, I think it's largely a misnomer that they're in the Industrials sector. They're really an e-business. Theoretically they sell the vehicles at-cost to local operators, and then they share revenues with the operator. So their profit doesn't come from the vehicles, but from the service.
It's an interesting business model, but I've questioned the viability of it. I rarely see them in use, and when I do, it's kids having fun, not anyone actually trying to commute. I do have a friend who's a prof at ACU who's used it occasionally to go home and back when she doesn't want to lose her parking spot (and she lives about a mile from campus so that's a viable trip).
I've seen my local operator once… loading/unloading them. I assume he has to take them somewhere and charge them occasionally because the things themselves only have a tiny solar panel on them, which I imagine is only used to keep the electronics charged (in particular, the anti-theft portion). There's no way it could charge the drivetrain battery on such a small solar panel. Seems like an interesting side-gig, but one that takes a ton of capital investment for minimal profit.
Diving in, I think it's largely a misnomer that they're in the Industrials sector. They're really an e-business. Theoretically they sell the vehicles at-cost to local operators, and then they share revenues with the operator. So their profit doesn't come from the vehicles, but from the service.
It's an interesting business model, but I've questioned the viability of it. I rarely see them in use, and when I do, it's kids having fun, not anyone actually trying to commute. I do have a friend who's a prof at ACU who's used it occasionally to go home and back when she doesn't want to lose her parking spot (and she lives about a mile from campus so that's a viable trip).
I've seen my local operator once… loading/unloading them. I assume he has to take them somewhere and charge them occasionally because the things themselves only have a tiny solar panel on them, which I imagine is only used to keep the electronics charged (in particular, the anti-theft portion). There's no way it could charge the drivetrain battery on such a small solar panel. Seems like an interesting side-gig, but one that takes a ton of capital investment for minimal profit.
Indicator gave five points on ES during chop tape.
I am experimenting with a more aggressive version on gold and it has been giving false triggers.
I am experimenting with a more aggressive version on gold and it has been giving false triggers.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Yeah we've seen two or three companies in BCS offering scooter or bike rentals. None seem to last long before abandoning the market.deadbq03 said:
Thanks for sharing. I hadn't even considered them as something to invest in. I live in Abilene and there's a fleet here in town.
Diving in, I think it's largely a misnomer that they're in the Industrials sector. They're really an e-business. Theoretically they sell the vehicles at-cost to local operators, and then they share revenues with the operator. So their profit doesn't come from the vehicles, but from the service.
It's an interesting business model, but I've questioned the viability of it. I rarely see them in use, and when I do, it's kids having fun, not anyone actually trying to commute. I do have a friend who's a prof at ACU who's used it occasionally to go home and back when she doesn't want to lose her parking spot (and she lives about a mile from campus so that's a viable trip).
I've seen my local operator once… loading/unloading them. I assume he has to take them somewhere and charge them occasionally because the things themselves only have a tiny solar panel on them, which I imagine is only used to keep the electronics charged (in particular, the anti-theft portion). There's no way it could charge the drivetrain battery on such a small solar panel. Seems like an interesting side-gig, but one that takes a ton of capital investment for minimal profit.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
Sep 25, 2017
Posts:
5,430
How long do you want to ignore this user?
EIAFarmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:API says...Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:When I wrote that original post 5 days ago, March 16th, it was $108 as a target but I didn't type it.cjo03 said:Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:From 5 days ago.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
I'm not watching all O&G, but the one's I'm watching are green, except for XOM. I've been preaching XOM manipulation along with WTI & Brent. Okay, if you don't buy off on conspiracy or manipulation, just consider it luck that everyone else is buying all other O&G's and totally missing XOM....a real diamond in the rough...a hidden gem... You might consider buying.
I hope somebody jumped on this.
Paging Benelli M4 Single Shot, brother I hope you hung on to PXD.
what is your current XOM target this round? you've been nails over the past year.
HOWEVER,...
XOM 65 Day Moving Average Volume was 16 million
On Friday, March 17th, the Regular Session Volume was 43.2 million (there was a 21 million share volume adjustment 8 minutes after the closing bell). The After Hours session ended with 5.95 million volume.
Yesterday, March 20, the Regular Session Volume was 32 million with After Hours session at just under 2 million.
All this took place in an upward price moving market. - Bullish - Frankly, I don't know what the hell took place but it's bullish. Somebody got Long and someone exited.
For this week, I'm keeping $108 as the conservative target and potential to move to $110/$112. We are getting close to month end and may see some setback (maybe) at month end.
Between today and month end,...if API numbers today and EIA numbers tomorrow, both show significant draws, that high end of my range is very doable. We should see significant draws in both sets of numbers.
Hope this helps.
Crude = +3.3M
Cush = -0.8M
Disty = -1.9M
Gas = -1.1M
Big 3 draw of about 0.5M in building season
The 20 China Super Tankers for March crude loadout in the U.S. are starting to show up. That's 2 million barrels per vessel.
Moo!
"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve)
increased by 1.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 481.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil
inventories are about 8% above the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline
inventories decreased by 6.4 million barrels from last week and are about 4% below the five year
average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories decreased
last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week and are about 9%
below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.3
million barrels from last week and are 37% above the five year average for this time of year.
Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 10.4 million barrels last week."
Let's go Brandon!
Featured Stories
See All
10:13
4h ago
2.7k
No. 13 A&M hoping recent purge brings surge against Oklahoma
by Olin Buchanan
45:12
1d ago
5.8k
10:48
6h ago
815
Science Denier
OK, TexAgs paying customers, what do you say - Tom Hart
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
96
Snow Monkey Ambassador
OK, TexAgs paying customers, what do you say - Tom Hart
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
57
djmeen95
All-SEC OL Trey Zuhn III to use final year of eligibility in Aggieland
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
54
AggieRush99
Shemar Turner OUT For Senior Bowl, Back In A Few Weeks
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
43
rwhitlock3
Shemar Turner OUT For Senior Bowl, Back In A Few Weeks
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
43
Hean99
Tom Hart doesn't get the vulgarities and classlessness...
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
42
FaithfulAg04
Chill on Tm Hart....almost everyone agrees with us.
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
39