Are we bouncing off 3880, or still waiting for confirmation?oldarmy1 said:3880 breaks and puts rule. Markets seeking direction right now just above and if we break to the upside above 3920 its game on for bulls until handwringing over CPI begins.Boy Named Sue said:
I'm paralyzed by SPY. Bought puts early, then calls to hedge, and like an idiot I'm trapped in purgatory. Need a breakout, either way, before decay eats me alive
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Last: 10 min ago by Buck Compton
grabbing SPY lotto calls, zero or hero
So is SVB now worth zero as far as stock goes?
Bought the SBNY dip, been playing the market safe n passively past two months. Need either a punch in the face or a booty call to feel alive. As of this writing, call me Glass Joe.
Wayfair down another 8% to $33, looking like an attractive entry or is it going to ride down the rest of the year with the entire stock market?Premium said:May have been talked about already today, but Wayfair (W)!... Down 23% to $38 - is this a buy? What happened - why did this run up to $70 and then get cut in half?Premium said:Philip J Fry said:Premium said:txaggieacct85 said:noPremium said:
Wayfair looking like a good pickup, anyone else agree?
Okay, now that we've had fun. Any serious commentary one way or the other?
I think most people think Amazon for online furniture but if you're looking for better quality you end up at Wayfair (online shoppers).
As for the stock, I'm curious at $52 since it recently shore up from high 40's to mid 70's and now back to 52.
I'd wait until it's back in the 30s
Good call so far ($49.06 today), I think if it goes another $6 lower it's worth getting to hold long.
And here's our daily H&S pattern.
the housing market is tanking- so wouldn't that pretty much explain why Wayfair would be starting to tank? the only time I ever used Wayfair was when I bought a new housePremium said:Wayfair down another 8% to $33, looking like an attractive entry or is it going to ride down the rest of the year with the entire stock market?Premium said:May have been talked about already today, but Wayfair (W)!... Down 23% to $38 - is this a buy? What happened - why did this run up to $70 and then get cut in half?Premium said:Philip J Fry said:Premium said:txaggieacct85 said:noPremium said:
Wayfair looking like a good pickup, anyone else agree?
Okay, now that we've had fun. Any serious commentary one way or the other?
I think most people think Amazon for online furniture but if you're looking for better quality you end up at Wayfair (online shoppers).
As for the stock, I'm curious at $52 since it recently shore up from high 40's to mid 70's and now back to 52.
I'd wait until it's back in the 30s
Good call so far ($49.06 today), I think if it goes another $6 lower it's worth getting to hold long.
I think it depends on the purchaser profile. When we want to buy a new piece of furniture, sometimes we go in store to buy but sometimes we look online (tables, consoles, chairs, lighting, commercial office furniture). If we go the online route Wayfair is always considered as they have higher quality than somewhere like Amazon, but still a ton of selection and good reviews / pictures so you don't get burned as often.LMCane said:the housing market is tanking- so wouldn't that pretty much explain why Wayfair would be starting to tank? the only time I ever used Wayfair was when I bought a new housePremium said:Wayfair down another 8% to $33, looking like an attractive entry or is it going to ride down the rest of the year with the entire stock market?Premium said:May have been talked about already today, but Wayfair (W)!... Down 23% to $38 - is this a buy? What happened - why did this run up to $70 and then get cut in half?Premium said:Philip J Fry said:Premium said:txaggieacct85 said:noPremium said:
Wayfair looking like a good pickup, anyone else agree?
Okay, now that we've had fun. Any serious commentary one way or the other?
I think most people think Amazon for online furniture but if you're looking for better quality you end up at Wayfair (online shoppers).
As for the stock, I'm curious at $52 since it recently shore up from high 40's to mid 70's and now back to 52.
I'd wait until it's back in the 30s
Good call so far ($49.06 today), I think if it goes another $6 lower it's worth getting to hold long.
Philip J Fry said:
And here's our daily H&S pattern.
Yep. Gross. I'm going to the gym. Hopefully the afternoon will be more fun
Down goes 3880 SPX
FJ43 said:
Watching for 386 and change on SPY.
We've arrived at my targets for today. Selling balance of all VIX calls here.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
GERONIMOOOOOOOO
Fantastic callout. Wish I had gotten a chance to follow.FJ43 said:FJ43 said:
Watching for 386 and change on SPY.
We've arrived at my targets for today. Selling balance of all VIX calls here.
All I can do is laugh at this point. I felt like this was coming. I knew the recent upswing was a bull trap. Still fell for it.
Let me tell you something, I did follow. I have been sitting on a SPY 386P from before the 8:45 tick up. It was almost worthless at one point. It's green but has been a lot of sweating going on watching the 8/21 cross earlier.
Hey, I was in XSP puts I bought at the close yesterday. That 10-10:30 run up stopped me out.Spoony Love said:
Let me tell you something, I did follow. I have been sitting on a SPY 386P from before the 8:45 tick up. It was almost worthless at one point. It's green but has been a lot of sweating going on watching the 8/21 cross earlier.
Lost 5% on those, they'd be a double bagger if I held.
S&P gains for the year about to be wiped out.
Just wow. Doubt it closes here though.
Ag CPA said:
S&P gains for the year about to be wiped out.
That, and this would be a failed breakout of that 2022 trendline too.
Really? I think SPY is losing a level and the next one isn't until 382. I think we close closer to 382 than 388. But I'm not as experienced as yourself so I am tempering my outlook.
Inflation is not the driver here. The driver here is two things that are way more important to central bankers than inflation:SF2004 said:Rates can't go back to 0. Inflation would go through the roof.Bonfire1996 said:Rates are going to zero and below. It's a certainty.SF2004 said:What is your prediction on final FED target?Bonfire1996 said:
Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.
I think we get to 5.75% and hold for a while for some pain. Then Daddy Pow wants to trail off back to 3.50% for a good long while. Rates aren't going back to 0.
I think he thought he could bagdad bob this inflation and failed.
If JPow goes to 5.75% unrealized losses might hit 75% of banks equity. That can't happen for long.
This is the biggest, longest term bluff in financial market history.
1. The US Govt cannot afford to re-price its debt at 3.5-5%, period. This is a mathematical certainty. It's why BofA said rates go to zero soon because it's the FED bailout of the US Gov.
2. Bank balance sheets are heavily invested in bonds. Over years of low interest rate policy and high liquidity, banks needed investments for their liquidity. They couldn't find enough borrowers for all their liquidity printed by the FED. So they bought bonds. Bonds that were low interest instruments tied to corporate debt. This bonds are priced on the market because they are rarely held to maturity and are likely to be sold to replace needed liquidity.
As the FED raised rates, those trillions of dollars in bonds have lost value on the open market. You can't sell 2% interest earning bonds today unless you sell at a discount because anyone can buy 4.5% short term treasuries.
The FED cannot allow those losses on banks balance sheets to be realized. It would crash the entire monetary system across the globe. Banks losing 50% of their equity would cause immediate global war, famine, and death. That isn't hyperbolic.
Those 2 things are way more important than inflation. We are Japan, just 15 years behind.
I've got levels at 385.56, then down at 381.80.
This feels like they are going to flush it today.
This feels like they are going to flush it today.
I don't know how to exploit that knowledge. I wish I did but I don't. Fed Funds rates in 2026 will be less than 1%. Today it's 4.75%.
You guys tell me how to make that bet.
You guys tell me how to make that bet.
Bonfire1996 said:Inflation is not the driver here. The driver here is two things that are way more important to central bankers than inflation:SF2004 said:Rates can't go back to 0. Inflation would go through the roof.Bonfire1996 said:Rates are going to zero and below. It's a certainty.SF2004 said:What is your prediction on final FED target?Bonfire1996 said:
Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.
I think we get to 5.75% and hold for a while for some pain. Then Daddy Pow wants to trail off back to 3.50% for a good long while. Rates aren't going back to 0.
I think he thought he could bagdad bob this inflation and failed.
If JPow goes to 5.75% unrealized losses might hit 75% of banks equity. That can't happen for long.
This is the biggest, longest term bluff in financial market history.
1. The US Govt cannot afford to re-price its debt at 3.5-5%, period. This is a mathematical certainty. It's why BofA said rates go to zero soon because it's the FED bailout of the US Gov.
2. Bank balance sheets are heavily invested in bonds. Over years of low interest rate policy and high liquidity, banks needed investments for their liquidity. They couldn't find enough borrowers for all their liquidity printed by the FED. So they bought bonds. Bonds that were low interest instruments tied to corporate debt. This bonds are priced on the market because they are rarely held to maturity and are likely to be sold to replace needed liquidity.
As the FED raised rates, those trillions of dollars in bonds have lost value on the open market. You can't sell 2% interest earning bonds today unless you sell at a discount because anyone can buy 4.5% short term treasuries.
The FED cannot allow those losses on banks balance sheets to be realized. It would crash the entire monetary system across the globe. Banks losing 50% of their equity would cause immediate global war, famine, and death. That isn't hyperbolic.
Those 2 things are way more important than inflation. We are Japan, just 15 years behind.
Damn, this year got exciting real fast.
I can't imagine the losses on bonds when they were purchased with negative rates. At least the US never went below zero.
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Way to sugar coat it!
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Philip J Fry said:
And here's our daily H&S pattern.
I know we're not supposed to dance, but i bought spx puts here...
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Didn't break the $114 barrier, didn't approach $116 or $117.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:You're welcome. I'm glad you made some money!South Platte said:Appreciate this very much - - made almost $4/share on an XOM trade.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
I think the PXD $5.58 div drop tomorrow will be short lived. Rather be Long, either shares or options.
Moving on,....
I figured you bought Calls regarding my XOM post. :- ))
Should see $114 for XOM next week.
Update:
- XOM will break the $114 barrier this week and should approach, if not break, $116.
- XOM should run this week all the way to Dividend Payout on Friday March 10th.
- Maybe see $116/$117 on Monday March 13th.
- XOM "usually" runs a little after Payout Date due to the share buying taking place for drip program.
- Going forward from March 14th.....it gets real tricky here....
------ Are you long term bullish or bearish crude oil? If bullish just hold. If bearish exit your XOM positions.
------ XOM 23Q1 earnings will not beat 22Q1 earnings.
------ Then you'll have to watch what the analysts are projecting for 23Q1 earnings and see if XOM can at least beat the analysts earnings estimates.
------ Therefore, if you are bearish crude and XOM cannot beat analysts estimates for 23Q1, XOM could go through a rough patch until Driving Season starts and crude starts and crude continues an upward move at a faster pace. (Spoiler Alert: XOM 23Q2 should be glorious)
I will be holding all my XOM Long share positions. I "might" sell some late March Calls or April Calls through the dip that should be coming from late March to 23Q1 announcement. I am bullish XOM to the point of $120 before or by the end of June. $140 to $150 by the end of the year. I am bullish crude long term.
If the above is entirely wrong and XOM does not dip, it will be because of crude is just ripping upward and no one will care that XOM earnings did not beat 22Q1 and care even less that XOM did not beat analysts estimates for 23Q1.
The run into Dividend Payout Date (today) not happening today. ***It works until it doesn't. I've lost track of how many quarters this was money.***
The rest of what I wrote above I am not changing.
DOE released a statement today
^^^^This statement is admission of a major mistake....that last sentence. There are so many other words I want to use about this Administration TexAgs would ban me for life. The U.S. is in a National Security Risk event over the SPR.Quote:
"This will be the last Congressionally mandated sale until FY26. Congress accepted a DOE proposal that canceled 140 million barrels in congressionally mandated sales that were directed to take place between FY24 FY27. This action strategically maintains volume SPR at a price of ~$74 dollars a barrel by avoiding unnecessary sales."
The LAST SPR SALE shows Marathon and Equinor buying 16 of the 26 million barrels.
If you didn't see/read, Iran and Saudi are establishing diplomatic relationships within 60 days, a joint statement by Saudi, Iran and Chy-nah. BRIC's is getting a unified front together and NATO is focused on global warming, climate change, green energy and other nonsense. Petro Dollar in jeopardy?
If you are invested in XOM, know this, they have enough cash on-hand to be a 100% debt free company. A $400 to $450 billion market cap and pays a sustainable dividend. If you are looking for solid investment, it's really tough to beat this one - you pick your entry point.
In 5 weeks, I'm bringing back this post. Mid-March butane blending goes away and that drops gasoline supply 2% right out the gate. Driving Season is coming..
ETA below:
3/10/23 ~1:00pmCT
XOM = $107.70 / -$1.47
WTI = $76.55 / +$0.83
Brent = $82.63 / +$1.04
CVX = $158.93 / -$1.58
PXD = $199.10 / -$2.92
You don't have to go back to 0 in order to not collapse. At fed funds between 2.5-3.5 you can ride it out and get long term inflation back under control.Bonfire1996 said:Inflation is not the driver here. The driver here is two things that are way more important to central bankers than inflation:SF2004 said:Rates can't go back to 0. Inflation would go through the roof.Bonfire1996 said:Rates are going to zero and below. It's a certainty.SF2004 said:What is your prediction on final FED target?Bonfire1996 said:
Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.
I think we get to 5.75% and hold for a while for some pain. Then Daddy Pow wants to trail off back to 3.50% for a good long while. Rates aren't going back to 0.
I think he thought he could bagdad bob this inflation and failed.
If JPow goes to 5.75% unrealized losses might hit 75% of banks equity. That can't happen for long.
This is the biggest, longest term bluff in financial market history.
1. The US Govt cannot afford to re-price its debt at 3.5-5%, period. This is a mathematical certainty. It's why BofA said rates go to zero soon because it's the FED bailout of the US Gov.
2. Bank balance sheets are heavily invested in bonds. Over years of low interest rate policy and high liquidity, banks needed investments for their liquidity. They couldn't find enough borrowers for all their liquidity printed by the FED. So they bought bonds. Bonds that were low interest instruments tied to corporate debt. This bonds are priced on the market because they are rarely held to maturity and are likely to be sold to replace needed liquidity.
As the FED raised rates, those trillions of dollars in bonds have lost value on the open market. You can't sell 2% interest earning bonds today unless you sell at a discount because anyone can buy 4.5% short term treasuries.
The FED cannot allow those losses on banks balance sheets to be realized. It would crash the entire monetary system across the globe. Banks losing 50% of their equity would cause immediate global war, famine, and death. That isn't hyperbolic.
Those 2 things are way more important than inflation. We are Japan, just 15 years behind.
Remember the US Gov gets to use inflated dollars to pay the debt as well.
#BlackMonday if we do not close above 3900 today.
— TIC TOC TIC (@TicTocTick) March 10, 2023
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
How bad is tech going to crash when contagion spreads to companies not being able to make payroll?
Let's see if this breaks
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Patience finally paid off on my 385Ps from this morning and I got out with a profit. Thank goodness!
Bro. Prior to Barack Hussein O, the most we've ever paid in interest expense on the federal debt is $400 billion a year, across all debt instruments. It gradually increases through Trump to $600 Billion, again, across all instruments.
Have you ever seen a logarithmic increase to a curve? Because 2022 to now is straight up with an increasing slope. We will be at $1.5 trillion in interest payments soon if the FED bluff doesn't get called. All the "we can't afford it" chants were political cannon fodder till now. We have to sell a full trillion dollars of new debt every year just to pay interest on old debt. That doesn't work.
It's going back down to zero because it has to
Have you ever seen a logarithmic increase to a curve? Because 2022 to now is straight up with an increasing slope. We will be at $1.5 trillion in interest payments soon if the FED bluff doesn't get called. All the "we can't afford it" chants were political cannon fodder till now. We have to sell a full trillion dollars of new debt every year just to pay interest on old debt. That doesn't work.
It's going back down to zero because it has to
FJ43 said:
Let's see if this breaks
Watch 386.60s and 387.70a for rejections
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
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We've been talking about the housing industry is fine cause those with 3% rates aren't going to sell unless they lose their job.tremble said:
How bad is tech going to crash when contagion spreads to companies not being able to make payroll?
Well - who is going to be in a job with a company who can't pay?
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