Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
South Platte said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
I think the PXD $5.58 div drop tomorrow will be short lived. Rather be Long, either shares or options.
Moving on,....
I figured you bought Calls regarding my XOM post. :- ))
Should see $114 for XOM next week.
Appreciate this very much - - made almost $4/share on an XOM trade.
You're welcome. I'm glad you made some money!
Update:
- XOM will break the $114 barrier this week and should approach, if not break, $116.
- XOM should run this week all the way to Dividend Payout on Friday March 10th.
- Maybe see $116/$117 on Monday March 13th.
- XOM "usually" runs a little after Payout Date due to the share buying taking place for drip program.
- Going forward from March 14th.....it gets real tricky here....
------ Are you long term bullish or bearish crude oil? If bullish just hold. If bearish exit your XOM positions.
------ XOM 23Q1 earnings will not beat 22Q1 earnings.
------ Then you'll have to watch what the analysts are projecting for 23Q1 earnings and see if XOM can at least beat the analysts earnings estimates.
------ Therefore, if you are bearish crude and XOM cannot beat analysts estimates for 23Q1, XOM could go through a rough patch until Driving Season starts and crude starts and crude continues an upward move at a faster pace. (Spoiler Alert: XOM 23Q2 should be glorious)
I will be holding all my XOM Long share positions. I "might" sell some late March Calls or April Calls through the dip that should be coming from late March to 23Q1 announcement. I am bullish XOM to the point of $120 before or by the end of June. $140 to $150 by the end of the year. I am bullish crude long term.
If the above is entirely wrong and XOM does not dip, it will be because of crude is just ripping upward and no one will care that XOM earnings did not beat 22Q1 and care even less that XOM did not beat analysts estimates for 23Q1.
Didn't break the $114 barrier, didn't approach $116 or $117.
The run into Dividend Payout Date (today) not happening today. ***It works until it doesn't. I've lost track of how many quarters this was money.***
The rest of what I wrote above I am not changing.
DOE released a statement today
Quote:
"This will be the last Congressionally mandated sale until FY26. Congress accepted a DOE proposal that canceled 140 million barrels in congressionally mandated sales that were directed to take place between FY24 FY27. This action strategically maintains volume SPR at a price of ~$74 dollars a barrel by avoiding unnecessary sales."
^^^^This statement is admission of a major mistake....that last sentence. There are so many other words I want to use about this Administration TexAgs would ban me for life. The U.S. is in a National Security Risk event over the SPR.
The LAST SPR SALE shows Marathon and Equinor buying 16 of the 26 million barrels.
If you didn't see/read, Iran and Saudi are establishing diplomatic relationships within 60 days, a joint statement by Saudi, Iran and Chy-nah. BRIC's is getting a unified front together and NATO is focused on global warming, climate change, green energy and other nonsense. Petro Dollar in jeopardy?
If you are invested in XOM, know this, they have enough cash on-hand to be a 100% debt free company. A $400 to $450 billion market cap and pays a sustainable dividend. If you are looking for solid investment, it's really tough to beat this one - you pick your entry point.
In 5 weeks, I'm bringing back this post. Mid-March butane blending goes away and that drops gasoline supply 2% right out the gate. Driving Season is coming..
ETA below:3/10/23 ~1:00pmCT
XOM = $107.70 / -$1.47
WTI = $76.55 / +$0.83
Brent = $82.63 / +$1.04
CVX = $158.93 / -$1.58
PXD = $199.10 / -$2.92