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Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Love it oa. Thanks!
Golf1
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So buy the dip or is SPY going to see $404-405 today?
txaggie_08
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If yesterday was any indication, buy the dip. But what the hell do I know? (Not much)
Spoony Love
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Do you see anything that would cause it to lose $408? 408-414 has been a magnet for SPY for quite awhle. If no news, I see a buy the dip opportunity for bounce scalp.
txaggie_08
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The only news is PPI coming in higher than expected, but CPI came in higher than expected yesterday and we had a Green Day.
$30,000 Millionaire
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txaggie_08 said:

If yesterday was any indication, buy the dip. But what the hell do I know? (Not much)


You just can't read into the default algorithm action. Market could do anything. There is the possibility that the 4100-4170 range continues and the market makers were feasting on call buyers yesterday that anticipated a rip.

Pretty hard to be bullish intraday below yesterdays close and 4100 is still providing support.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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I still think we gap fill. It just may not be today.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
CheladaAg
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Crazy dark pool block buy over 5mil shares in BIGC pre market.
BaylorSpineGuy
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boyz05 said:

Crazy dark pool block buy over 5mil shares in BIGC pre market.


Oops. My finger slipped. Was supposed to be 50,000,000 shares.
Philip J Fry
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https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/producer-price-index-january-2023-.html

Quote:


The producer price index rose 0.7% in January, higher than the 0.4% estimate.
Excluding food and energy, core PPI increased 0.5%, compared with expectations for a 0.3% increase.
In other economic data, jobless claims edged lower to 194,000, below the estimate for 200,000. Also, the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index plunged to -24.3, well below the -7.8 estimate.


Don't fight the fed.
Bonfire97
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Quote:

Don't fight the fed.
Apparently this only applies when they are lowering rates.
Boy Named Sue
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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/US-Gas-Drillers-Are-About-To-Start-Cutting-Output.html

Good for BOIL, bad for RRC, CHK and other companies who may not have hedged?
Bonfire1996
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oldarmy1 said:

For business launch, this is something I'll be doing on key data days:
What I've learned through public speaking is you get better every time you do it. You were already good on this one and you will only get better and more compelling. Great job.
ProgN
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Sold remaining shares of FSLY. Stock up 100% since the beginning of the year. I'll let it cool off and then go back in with even more size.
Dan Scott
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Amazing how resilient the market has been in February. Huge rally in January and slight gains so far in February. But in February everything that would make you think the market is going down hasn't happened. Tech earnings were crap, unemployment rate is lower today than when fed started rate increase, rates are up, CPI report was as expected, hot PPI. Fed officials openly saying 50bps not off table. After all that, still near recent highs.
frankm01
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Great call, Prog. Net free on some of next week's 15C. Looked into it after you brought it up a few days ago.
Boy Named Sue
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XOM LFG baby
ProgN
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Thanks bud and happy you printed some paper.
YaketyYak
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Has anyone ever seen Neil Sperry and OA in the same room before?
Take out the papers and the trash, or you don't get no spendin' cash
wanderer
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Interesting. This morning SPY rallied and pulled back right at the upper line of the flag (blue line)
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Boy Named Sue said:

XOM LFG baby
Agree.

CVX Side Note: Just an expression of a viewpoint here or rambling. The XOM:CVX spread was $62 to $77 basically the last 6 months of 2022 on an intra-day basis. There was a narrowing of XOM:CVX spread starting in 2023, but it really accentuated itself after Q4 earnings and has not recovered. I do think CVX was harshly punished for Q4 ER and maybe to some extent the mandatory retirement of CEO Wirth (the BoD is trying to extend his tenure) is causing "uncertainty". I don't think CVX falls in the category of "earnings drift". I sold half my CVX position on 2/10 and sold Calls against the remaining half on 2/14. With all this said, I continue to be bullish XOM, regardless of CVX. I "think" we could see the XOM:CVX spread narrow to $47, maybe $45. This morning the intra-day showed a $51. At some point, CVX is going to be an overweight in a portfolio....it's not keeping up with the rest of the energy sector, IMO. The CVX share buyback program will help, but I have not kept up with the goings-on (my homework assignment). Anyway, FWIW.

Helluva BB game last night! My prayers have been answered. We finally got a coach who understands the significance of the points at the free throw line - it's east coast style, IMO. Waited decades for this to happen. Announcers said 25% of our point production comes off the line....also means the other team is in foul trouble. Heck yeah! I love me some Buzz. No homo.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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YaketyYak said:

Has anyone ever seen Neil Sperry and OA in the same room before?
Brings a new meaning to cedar chop...per..and market related at the same time!
irish pete ag06
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Spoony Love
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Man, what a legend if this were to turn out true.
switzerland
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You oil and gas guys need to tell me what is wrong with buying BOIL and just holding it for a few years if needed. At some point it will go up again...right?
trip98
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trip98 said:

ASO just incredible!!

havent posted in a LONG time. I learned a lot on this thread and as still a newbie I'm coming here to thank folks for sharing knowledge. Here's how you've helped me:
Lets just start by saying what is going on with the tear that ASO is on!!!!
From here I learned the idea of going net free and utilizing covered calls. So a couple years ago I bought into ASO at 21.75. since then sold CC's to lower my cost to $19. That's a win!!
I've been following the timing of calls to be before earnings as they've been crushing it each quarter.
Bought some calls back when dips and pocket profits....sell when it spikes....another win!!
Did that again a month or so ago for Feb 17 calls at $60 strike for $85
Unfortunately did NOT repeat lesson I learned and didn't buy back when it dropped to $40 a few weeks ago. And now it's on an absolutely rocket to the moon!!
It's at $62 now and there's still time for it to settle below $60 but for now I'm looking at getting called out. While that stings I can't call it a loss b/c getting $60 on $21.75 in just 2 years is a great return!!
And it offsets a bunch of losses I have so I'll leverage those to lower taxes...thanks XL and WWR!! But I have the rest of the year to see what WWR can do

Anyways...thanks to all for sharing....just to name a few....OA...$30k....irish....guy from TN (can't remember handle) that used to post in the mornings

we'll see how it goes between now and the 17th...if called out I'll pour some of that gain into a few net free shares!! and learning the pattern they've been on maybe try buy/sell some calls but will tread light as past results don't indicate future performance!!

I know it won't mean squat to you all but quick update. As I'm not trading like most of you I get to folks on my few, meager holdings with ASO being the crown jewel so far.
Well, I learned from my lessons previously and I bought the call back. I did so right before it hit $60 today and so all I made on it was $16. But PROFIT IS PROFIT....right?!?!! Also, more importantly, I still have control of my only 100 shares. As of this posting it was at $61 and change.

Time will tell, but the lesson is I have control and I can always sell the shares if I want to or sell another call and I put just a touch of money in my pocket at the same time!!
AgEng06
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switzerland said:

You oil and gas guys need to tell me what is wrong with buying BOIL and just holding it for a few years if needed. At some point it will go up again...right?
I believe the poster "Brian Earl Spilner" is who you are looking for. He should be along soon...
irish pete ag06
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switzerland said:

You oil and gas guys need to tell me what is wrong with buying BOIL and just holding it for a few years if needed. At some point it will go up again...right?
If it doesn't you'll get handed a reverse split which will make your "cost basis" sky rocket and take a long time or potentially never recover from.
GreasenUSA
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switzerland said:

You oil and gas guys need to tell me what is wrong with buying BOIL and just holding it for a few years if needed. At some point it will go up again...right?
A few years from now, BOIL will have lost 95%+ from here.

You will likely have success if you buy a non-leveraged NG instrument that isn't subject to decay, though.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AgEng06 said:

switzerland said:

You oil and gas guys need to tell me what is wrong with buying BOIL and just holding it for a few years if needed. At some point it will go up again...right?
I believe the poster "Brian Earl Spilner" is who you are looking for. He should be along soon...
You have some weird obsession with calling me out about BOIL.
FTAG 2000
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GreasenUSA said:

switzerland said:

You oil and gas guys need to tell me what is wrong with buying BOIL and just holding it for a few years if needed. At some point it will go up again...right?
A few years from now, BOIL will have lost 95%+ from here.

You will likely have success if you buy a non-leveraged NG instrument that isn't subject to decay, though.
Just buy some LNG and wait until December.
Boy Named Sue
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Good stuff, Farmer. I haven't watched the CVX/XOM spread, but will add it to my info bank. I do watch PSX and VLO pretty close, as I thought they might correlate. But I don't notice anything profound, so far.

And I was at the game last night with my Razorback alum daughter. She was not happy but she did saw em off with me. Aggie football season tickets for 17 of her 21 years has had a positive effect I guess!
Brian Earl Spilner
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irish pete ag06 said:

switzerland said:

You oil and gas guys need to tell me what is wrong with buying BOIL and just holding it for a few years if needed. At some point it will go up again...right?
If it doesn't you'll get handed a reverse split which will make your "cost basis" sky rocket and take a long time or potentially never recover from.
I see this a lot, but splits/reverse splits don't actually affect your cost basis/risk. The share price gets adjusted at the same rate as your cost basis. There's the obvious risks of all leveraged ETS like decay, but I'm not seeing why a reverse split would affect that.

What am I missing?
Chef Elko
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I see significant downside risk in 2023 natural gas prices. Weather was terrible this winter and a ton of gas was brought online to capitalize on higher prices and now we are pushing over 100 Bcf/d production figures. Storage figures are going to be well above 5 year averages and correlate with $1.50-$3 prices.

Companies will cut gas rigs, pay attention to 2023 guidance over the next few weeks, but I don't see a high correlation with rigs and gas prices. Permian continues to add more associated gas to the markets and oil drilling isn't slowing down at all. For my livelihood and company's bottom line, it's probably better to see worse prices in 2023 and hope that resets the market for 2024.
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