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Last: 14 hrs ago by jamey
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
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AG
I tend to agree with you and 30K about a prolonged downturn and slow long term recovery. Takes a long time to unwind 10-15 yrs of cheap money.
I know mazag (doesn't post much here anymore) and others have strong opinions about wave counts (Elliott wave), and they certainly require continual backchecking and updating so as not to invalidate itself.
But considering that Jan 1 '22 was the last ATH before a correction, there was a 5 wave push lower to 3500. That was about 10 months. I consider that entire move a "wave 1". We are likely in a corrective wave 2 (typically retraces 61.8-78.6% of previous move) - that's where I came up with the 4300-4500 number a couple weeks ago. Will be invalidated with a new ATH.
The impulsive down wave 3 gets 30K his 3200-3400 number.
Each of these waves lasts 6-12 months or so. Given there's 5 of them, that's about a 4-5 yr downturn in the market. May ultimately bottom around 2700-2800, another number thrown around here before…..but that may be a couple years away. Then we start a climb that probably takes 8-10 yrs to make a new ATH.
So trading levels and short term moves has more value than blabbering like I just have about long term moves.
Anyway, good luck trading today everyone.
I know mazag (doesn't post much here anymore) and others have strong opinions about wave counts (Elliott wave), and they certainly require continual backchecking and updating so as not to invalidate itself.
But considering that Jan 1 '22 was the last ATH before a correction, there was a 5 wave push lower to 3500. That was about 10 months. I consider that entire move a "wave 1". We are likely in a corrective wave 2 (typically retraces 61.8-78.6% of previous move) - that's where I came up with the 4300-4500 number a couple weeks ago. Will be invalidated with a new ATH.
The impulsive down wave 3 gets 30K his 3200-3400 number.
Each of these waves lasts 6-12 months or so. Given there's 5 of them, that's about a 4-5 yr downturn in the market. May ultimately bottom around 2700-2800, another number thrown around here before…..but that may be a couple years away. Then we start a climb that probably takes 8-10 yrs to make a new ATH.
So trading levels and short term moves has more value than blabbering like I just have about long term moves.
Anyway, good luck trading today everyone.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Should I tell them that you can murder these rates by collaring the shares on high yield dividend stocks?
https://texags.com/forums/12/topics/3359937
Which stocks are recommended? Wife and I want to take out of our high yield savings and put into better investments
Do you know how to collar shares?
You do have to watch for being assigned. If you do, you can always resell calls or just exit.
1.50 in premium plus the dividend. Ideally you want XOM to trade lower than 115 to reduce the assignment risk.
You do have to watch for being assigned. If you do, you can always resell calls or just exit.
1.50 in premium plus the dividend. Ideally you want XOM to trade lower than 115 to reduce the assignment risk.
So do you buy and hold, or just before the dividend? Sell then move on to the next one?
You want to be long dated to avoid assignment
On the options, yes. But in regards to the shares.
Congrats to anyone who jumped into STNG at 45.
Front ran an 8/21 EMA cross on the 5 min chart targeting red to green on SPY. I'll wait through the back test to the 21. If volume is there, I may add to it. Went with tomorrow expiry 420c
Thanks Tesla!
Just buy and wait
This is absolutely correct. Credit cards are now charged up at interest rates we haven't seen since 07. This is going to get really interesting soon. I have a feeling that's why JPOW got less hawkish. He knows something is about to "break" and he is going to have to slam rates back to 0 this year. I think we are about to have some really good setups here. Like once in a lifetime setups.Quote:
FED report today on all credit. Consumer debt, mortgages, student loans, car loans, everything. Every metric didn't just miss targets, but missed badly.
Consumers already blew through all their cash so the last several months of positive GDP and positive retail sales were all fueled by credit. That's now finished. January and February retail sales will be bad and that's when the predictions start to set in that Q1 is the first quarter of the real recession.
$200+Premium said:Bonfire97 said:Dang 30K, you called it!Quote:
I think this gives some back into close. Don't lose on a Friday guys!!
He also called for $80 Tesla as a broken stock
This may not work as it keeps rejecting a level at 414.20-ish. Going to find an exitSpoony Love said:
Front ran an 8/21 EMA cross on the 5 min chart targeting red to green on SPY. I'll wait through the back test to the 21. If volume is there, I may add to it. Went with tomorrow expiry 420c
Like +1500 today. Just stopping.
Trimming some TSLA here, what an incredible 2 week run!
Take out the papers and the trash, or you don't get no spendin' cash
Premium said:$200+Premium said:Bonfire97 said:Dang 30K, you called it!Quote:
I think this gives some back into close. Don't lose on a Friday guys!!
He also called for $80 Tesla as a broken stock
Y'all act like the Tesla saga is over.
Bonfire97 said:This is absolutely correct. Credit cards are now charged up at interest rates we haven't seen since 07. This is going to get really interesting soon. I have a feeling that's why JPOW got less hawkish. He knows something is about to "break" and he is going to have to slam rates back to 0 this year. I think we are about to have some really good setups here. Like once in a lifetime setups.Quote:
FED report today on all credit. Consumer debt, mortgages, student loans, car loans, everything. Every metric didn't just miss targets, but missed badly.
Consumers already blew through all their cash so the last several months of positive GDP and positive retail sales were all fueled by credit. That's now finished. January and February retail sales will be bad and that's when the predictions start to set in that Q1 is the first quarter of the real recession.
**Once in a COVID set up.**
You all can fight the chop.
FYI
CVS Health to acquire Oak Street Health (OSH) for $39/share.
She's an armadillo tail above $35 right now.
There's $4 per share to be made if you hold through the deal expected to close by year's end. Better than tossing cash at a CD.
CVS Health to acquire Oak Street Health (OSH) for $39/share.
She's an armadillo tail above $35 right now.
There's $4 per share to be made if you hold through the deal expected to close by year's end. Better than tossing cash at a CD.
Weird, you'd think with Google's AI news, the stock would have jumped a bit or at least not tanked.
Couldn't help it. Like shooting fish in a barrel.
You just like to drop into this thread to snipe at people every few weeks, or what?Premium said:$200+Premium said:Bonfire97 said:Dang 30K, you called it!Quote:
I think this gives some back into close. Don't lose on a Friday guys!!
He also called for $80 Tesla as a broken stock
Doesn't bother me, but I also don't have to post here. I took an 8 year hiatus before
Well I think we've done a good job of driving a culture of positivity and building folks up here. So it's annoying when someone comes in to tear folks down, let alone try to bring any value to the thread.$30,000 Millionaire said:
Doesn't bother me, but I also don't have to post here. I took an 8 year hiatus before
Dropping in to snipe is chicken ***** No one will be right 100% of the time. I appreciate reading predictions, and I'm confident there are tons of lurkers who do as well and never say so
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Weird, you'd think with Google's AI news, the stock would have jumped a bit or at least not tanked.
Google, $GOOGL, AI chatbot Bard gave inaccurate information in company advertisement, per Reuters.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 8, 2023
It is now down -4%.
"Google, $GOOGL, AI chatbot Bard gave inaccurate information in company advertisement, per Reuters."
If you followed OA on the MSFT 270c, you got well more than double on that move today.
$30,000 Millionaire said:Premium said:$200+Premium said:Bonfire97 said:Dang 30K, you called it!Quote:
I think this gives some back into close. Don't lose on a Friday guys!!
He also called for $80 Tesla as a broken stock
Y'all act like the Tesla saga is over.
Exactly. If we do trade 3200 like many smarter than myself think… what do you think TSLA would be at?
I bet it's below 80 in that instance.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Doesn't bother me, but I also don't have to post here. I took an 8 year hiatus before
Please don't stop posting because of one loser. You have taught me and I know a lot of others about how to try and trade and better ourselves. All for free and it's much appreciated
Same here. I enjoy your posts and have learned a lot.bmoochie said:$30,000 Millionaire said:
Doesn't bother me, but I also don't have to post here. I took an 8 year hiatus before
Please don't stop posting because of one loser. You have taught me and I know a lot of others about how to try and trade and better ourselves. All for free and it's much appreciated
I'll third this...
Icahn making a big move here.
👀 Iconic Trade! 👀 $18.5-22.5 es/ 4050 put +24k. pic.twitter.com/zWgTyrFdbz
— Cem Karsan 🥐 (@jam_croissant) February 8, 2023
Legged Into LUMN, hit as low as 3.74 today on multiple downgrades. This company has intrinsic value with the Level 3 fiber portion of the company. Dividend has been done away with, but they announced buybacks and debt tackling. Maybe theyll get swallowed up by a tech giant? Doubt they go under despite the ineptitude.
Keep an eye on it friends.
Keep an eye on it friends.
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