The FEDs credit report was not good. It's about to get ugly.

Haven't gone long on anything. This market is f'd up. Significant layoffs everywhere but we're supposed to believe all is well.

Waiting for 3400-3600. At least.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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The FEDs credit report was not good. It's about to get ugly.

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Please expound on this. Is this the "stress test" that they put on banks?

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consumer borrowing dropping off a cliff. Consumption will follow.

FED report today on all credit. Consumer debt, mortgages, student loans, car loans, everything. Every metric didn't just miss targets, but missed badly.

Consumers already blew through all their cash so the last several months of positive GDP and positive retail sales were all fueled by credit. That's now finished. January and February retail sales will be bad and that's when the predictions start to set in that Q1 is the first quarter of the real recession.

Couple it with reports that this recent run up is being fueled by retail buyers and it is the classic trap we've seen repeated for decades.

I still think 3200-3300 trades this year

You all are forgetting that the markets are constantly discounting and are forward looking. They know earnings will be bad but they are all starting to see past the bad earnings.

Suspend the logic of the market being perfectly priced for today's conditions.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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You all are forgetting that the markets are constantly discounting and are forward looking. They know earnings will be bad but they are all starting to see past the bad earnings.

Suspend the logic of the market being perfectly priced for today's conditions.

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Then what do you believe will be the catalyst to get to 3300?

Then what causes you to believe that 3200-3300 will be seen? Just a hunch?

Goldman has said 3200 and others have called 3300-3400. Goldman is simply best in class.

Two major factors:
1. Yes, markets are forward looking and they begin their climb before we leave recession. But, we haven't had the real recession yet. We are about to start a protracted one with higher than F food prices.
2. Bear markets NEVER end until the FED stops tightening. NEVER.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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ibdm98 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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You all are forgetting that the markets are constantly discounting and are forward looking. They know earnings will be bad but they are all starting to see past the bad earnings.

Suspend the logic of the market being perfectly priced for today's conditions.

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Then what do you believe will be the catalyst to get to 3300?

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No idea.

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Oil to $100 barrel. Gas prices can and will cause a double top on inflation, and coupled with negative GDP, you get the textbook definition of stagflation.

I mean this with all due respect, guys.

If I had said 3200 would trade in 2023 in October, all of you would have agreed. If I told you 4200 would trade before 3200 when we were at 3500, you would have been skeptical.

If you are skeptical now about 3300, why? Do you think 5K will trade first? Consider the possibility of several years of market consolidation vs trend continuation right now.

I'm going to laugh and laugh when this rips to 4300, gets everyone to believe and then just sells and sells and sells.

Part 2. I say this often here but will say it again:

Don't be horse blinded as a "bull" or a "bear". You can be both! I can be bullish for the next minute, day, month. Bearish for the next 2 years, and then bullish on the decade.

Let go of singular one way conviction. Some of you are getting rammed in the ass by the market every day because you cannot let go of biases. You buy when it's high, you sell when it's low. Then you say it's unfair. What stopped you from buying Tesla at 105 or AMD at 65? Why now at 85?

Bonfire1996 said:

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FED report today on all credit. Consumer debt, mortgages, student loans, car loans, everything. Every metric didn't just miss targets, but missed badly.

Consumers already blew through all their cash so the last several months of positive GDP and positive retail sales were all fueled by credit. That's now finished. January and February retail sales will be bad and that's when the predictions start to set in that Q1 is the first quarter of the real recession.

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it amazes me that this all coincides with the most bearish time of the year. It's like this is planned (even historically)

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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China doesn't think like us. I doubt they invade Taiwan. They'll just wait for Taiwan to come back. Even if it takes 50 years.

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I actually agree with you 30k. When does China invade anyone? they are masters of taking over slowly, stealing tech and whatever else they want.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I mean this with all due respect, guys.

If I had said 3200 would trade in 2023 in October, all of you would have agreed. If I told you 4200 would trade before 3200 when we were at 3500, you would have been skeptical.

If you are skeptical now about 3300, why? Do you think 5K will trade first? Consider the possibility of several years of market consolidation vs trend continuation right now.

I'm going to laugh and laugh when this rips to 4300, gets everyone to believe and then just sells and sells and sells.

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You're right. People are so caught up in the now and immediate future. 2008 is the only major recession that can happen. Everything compares to that.

October was merely the end of the very beginning. The next drop will signal another short term end and begin the middle period which could last for years. We could be in a sustained recession for 5 years or longer. People just don't get it. This isn't something the FED can drop rates and get us out of. But that's all they know. We've never seen a market correct itself with growth and economic health spurned by the market. We expect government to step in and give us our V's.

This is the unwinding of decades of failed modern monetary policy. It's all fake. Everything. And if it doesn't end in a major unwinding, then we're kicking the can again. Which is what most likely happens. That's why I personally believe this a 10+ year bear market. Eventually we have to get back to reality.