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ProgN
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In reply to wofo_db • 5:14p, 1/25/23
wofo_db said:
Quick noob question here...

Say i have 100 shares of wwr at $2..and as OA mentioned it dropped to 80 cents..say i buy 100 more shares at 80 cents and then sell 100 when it hits a $1. In my head i made $20, but does ameritrade take the first 100 shares of my account and it would it count as a $100 loss? And i would have now 100 shares at a $1 avg? Or does it mattee? In my head i was concerned if that triggers any wash rule or im just skipping another step in thw equation and my math is bad...thanks


I'm on TDA too you can specify FIFO or LIFO under the one of the tabs next to your profile. Iirc, it's under 'preferences' tab.

Welcome to the clubhouse
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to gougler08 • 6:13p, 1/25/23
HES kicked bottom today
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to gougler08 • 6:51p, 1/25/23
If crude and 3-2-1 crack spreads hold as-is through the rest of Q1, all O&G will rock harder when earnings results are announced in April. I believe this will happen.
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Dan Scott
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7:13p, 1/25/23
AG
PBF Chalmette refinery had a fire and is down. I saw Shell Deer Park had an issue from the tornado. Exxon Baytown announced several week turnaround. Plus I think lots of deferred maintenance from other refiners they will take advantage of this year after gains last year. It's possible crack stays above $40
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Dan Scott
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7:32p, 1/25/23
AG
XOM trading at PE below 10 is criminal. Nice dividend, monster share buyback, monster cash flow in high rate environment. Conservative estimate, Exxon should make on average $10B/quarter for annual income of $40B. 2022 earnings will be North of $50B record year. By the end of this year they will be at 3.8B shares outstanding. That's $10.50 EPS. A 10 multiple sets stock at $105

I think XOM is strong buy now, but back up truck below $105. XOM historical PE is around 12. That gives you $120/share.
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Dan Scott
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7:37p, 1/25/23
AG
By end of 2024, XOM share count down to about 3.5B. Earnings of $40B is EPS 11.50 so 10 PE is $115. $115 happens to be all-time high

$40B earnings is conservative and there should be multiple expansion so $115 won't stick. New highs coming
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txaggieacct85
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In reply to Dan Scott • 7:45p, 1/25/23
AG
Dan Scott said:
By end of 2024, XOM share count down to about 3.5B. Earnings of $40B is EPS 11.50 so 10 PE is $115. $115 happens to be all-time high

$40B earnings is conservative and there should be multiple expansion so $115 won't stick. New highs coming
commodity prices in the future? oil and gas prices? Exxon does very little if any oil and natural gas hedges, so they are subject to changes in the commodity prices.
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txaggieacct85
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In reply to txaggieacct85 • 7:49p, 1/25/23
AG
txaggieacct85 said:
Dan Scott said:
By end of 2024, XOM share count down to about 3.5B. Earnings of $40B is EPS 11.50 so 10 PE is $115. $115 happens to be all-time high

$40B earnings is conservative and there should be multiple expansion so $115 won't stick. New highs coming
commodity prices in the future? oil and gas prices? Exxon does very little if any oil and natural gas hedges, so they are subject to changes in the commodity prices.
CL.1 | Crude Oil WTI (NYM $/bbl) Front Month Contracts - WSJ

End of 2024 is currently 72.44 for crude oil and it's currently 80.46. I know this isnt perfect, but thats an 11 percent drop in prices.
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Dan Scott
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8:01p, 1/25/23
AG
XOM has gotten into trading but I don't think they are good at it. The assumption is oil goes no lower than 70. I don't think oil goes below 70 sustained in next 2 years.
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FJ43
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 8:07p, 1/25/23
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
FJ43 - you posted some setups some months back and one was T. .... That gap closed today.
Hey Farmer!

It sure did. Man that was a bit of patience. Didn't see the dip coming but held the trade intact.I didnt exit though at the spike yesterday set trails now but possible for continuation a bit. 21.21 next? Has room if clears here. May be a slow grind again though.

Think that was back on 11/3/22 when I posted time to enter according to my chart.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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8:12p, 1/25/23
Evening Gents!

Trying to catch up on a zillion pages of the forum. Haven't been able to post much where I felt I could follow up with exits and entry. Trades have been limited for me and setting alerts at night. If an alert goes off I have been know to pause a meeting to make the trade…

Been holding skip meeting all month and about done so looking forward to a few hallway walking scalps in a few weeks.

Y'all keep up the good work. Have seen some informative posts from the killers on here. Feel bad for those that 30k has been pillaging all month. Well I don't really feel bad just makes me feel better to say it.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:16p, 1/25/23
FJ43 said:

Hmmmm interesting chart. Volume. Consolidating.

Checked back to that 11/3 set post. This one went as well. Same with the BA post on same day.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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8:21p, 1/25/23
BA went. A little more stupid than I expected.



I'll start looking for more setups in the next week or two.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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8:26p, 1/25/23

Set some alerts. I might be a buyer around 10. Gap most likely will fill. RR would be 1-3ish. If you bought now I would cut at loss of the 21EMA and SR.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Dan Scott
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9:03p, 1/25/23
AG
Wow Natural Gas at 2.80. The March contract and April contract are about equal. Plenty of supply and no demand. February is going to be colder based on weather models but there is plenty of supply. Nat Gas at 2.40 maybe. It was $7 beginning of December crazy

I've been monitoring Ercot's site since January and demand in Texas for electricity has been low. Been hovering around 50K MW. During that cold snap in December demand was around 80K MW.

In January Natural gas has been around 40% of the energy mix. I don't have historical data to judge it against but assuming energy useage is lower than average and Nat Gas share is lower than normal.

Going to start tracking and play around ercots site for historical numbers and share anything interesting.

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SW AG80
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9:07p, 1/25/23
AG
We need the yankees to start freezing their butts off.
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wanderer
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:18p, 1/25/23
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Had an OK day but should have gone nuclear long on the downtrend break
Doing a post analysis on the day and realized that the downtrend break also coincided with the 8/21ema cross (which is probably no coincidence)

We never got a back test of the 21 until ~1:30p

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Dan Scott
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In reply to wanderer • 9:32p, 1/25/23
AG
wanderer said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Had an OK day but should have gone nuclear long on the downtrend break
Doing a post analysis on the day and realized that the downtrend break also coincided with the 8/21ema cross (which is probably no coincidence)

We never got a back test of the 21 until ~1:30p



Interesting. I missed when this was explained. Is it used to confirm intraday reversal if the 8 crosses the 21? Is the entry point on the reversal or on the backtest of the 21? Assuming if the 8 crosses the 21 again that's the signal to bail
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wanderer
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In reply to Dan Scott • 9:36p, 1/25/23
I'll let 30k or someone else answer that as I'm just starting to learn to look at it.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to FJ43 • 10:00p, 1/25/23
Yes, $21.21 in 2023 will happen. Should go to $22.50-ish. I need to get back to some finer study on T, but those price levels will happen.

I have been a bit to focused on XOM & CVX, for good reason, lot of wealth in that bucket. Options for XOM should sing like an auctioneer tomorrow.

I ordered a Black Stetson El Presidente Gold Edition last week Tuesday to go with my Mist Grey Gold Edition. I can't help myself.. Temptation is my greatest weakness.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to Dan Scott • 10:09p, 1/25/23
AG
Dan Scott said:
wanderer said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Had an OK day but should have gone nuclear long on the downtrend break
Doing a post analysis on the day and realized that the downtrend break also coincided with the 8/21ema cross (which is probably no coincidence)

We never got a back test of the 21 until ~1:30p



Interesting. I missed when this was explained. Is it used to confirm intraday reversal if the 8 crosses the 21? Is the entry point on the reversal or on the backtest of the 21? Assuming if the 8 crosses the 21 again that's the signal to bail
It's really up to you. A few of my trades I've entered my 1st buy on the cross, then set a 2nd buy at the 21ema on the option chart i'm trading.

I also sometimes use the 3 minute timeframe to try and get a head start on the 5 min cross.

The safer option is for sure to wait for the back test on the 5. It helps with not chasing.


Here's the 3 on the left and the 5 on the right. I use both. Along with the 10 as well for intraday.


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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:48p, 1/25/23
AG
The 8/21 EMA cross is not infallible and needs to be viewed through other context like support / resistance / time of day. View it as a reversal of trend and also as a context point for when a move started and how likely it is to continue, or if it's too extended.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:55p, 1/25/23
AG
I won't get into the oobi doobi of things like "look at the vix, doxy, and the tick".

I'll just tell you that if 8 is above the 21, the dollar is selling, vix isnt doing anything crazy and there are positive ticks, buy the S&P.

Want to know a real secret? If there are negative ticks, like -400 and the spooz isn't going down, GO LONG MOTHER EFFER.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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lobwedgephil
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11:01p, 1/25/23
Need plus or minus 1k ticks, that is institutional selling/buying.

Best thing about 8/21 or similar cross strategies, is that it teaches you how to trade properly. You have your rules for entry, exit. Abide by the rules and it is emotionless trade. You can build from there.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:02p, 1/25/23
AG
Secret #2: just figure out when the market is chopping or has unclear direction. If you can't tell, it's unclear. That said, don't fomo.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:07p, 1/25/23
AG
Secret #3, think in terms of probabilities, liquidity, and where buyers / sellers are trapped. Shorts got trapped today. These idiots shorted big at 3950.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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wanderer
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:10p, 1/25/23
Thanks! Feel free to keep them coming.

I need to do a better job of recording these nuggets and going back and revisit every so often. Thanks again for always sharing.
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YaketyYak
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8:14a, 1/26/23
TSLA +10% pre market

Earnings $1.19 vs $1.13 per share expected

Revenue $24.32 billion vs $24.16 billion expected

Automotive revenue $21.3 billion in Q4, +33% growth YOY.

No new guidance, but reiterated 50% compound annual growth rate target.

In terms of recent price cuts, Musk said, "Thus far in January we've seen the strongest orders year to date than ever in our history. We're currently seeing orders of almost twice the rate of production."
Take out the papers and the trash, or you don't get no spendin' cash
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AgEng06
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In reply to YaketyYak • 8:23a, 1/26/23
AG
Didn't they just make some big MSRP cuts on most models? That would explain the increase in orders to me.

NM, I misread your post. You mentioned that. Sorry.
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Premium
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In reply to Premium • 8:33a, 1/26/23
AG
Premium said:
I thought Tesla was going to hit $80? I guess the shorts started to feel the burn.
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Spoony Love
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8:51a, 1/26/23
AG
Holy red candles Batman!
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Bonfire1996
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9:08a, 1/26/23
AG
Durable goods and consumer spending signaling recession is unavoidable
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Golf1
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 9:17a, 1/26/23
AG
Bonfire1996 said:
Durable goods and consumer spending signaling recession is unavoidable


We've been in a recession depending on who you ask.
I'm really surprised to see the market break this long downtrend that we have been in when everyone knows
(Or is saying) the market will get worse than we've seen. Yet spy is 400+ and recovers easily when there looks like weakness. I guess earnings are making people buy right now.
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Bonfire1996
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9:24a, 1/26/23
AG
The market is responding to one thing, the unshakable jobs market. Consumer spending is down, durables have been back and forth to zero for 18 months, personal savings terrible, debt rising fast, but jobs and wages are charging forward.

This correction is going to hurt when the jobs start to turn. The fundamentals are all bad except for wages.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:26a, 1/26/23
AG
Paperhanded 4040C: $8 to $10

Oh well. Done for the day.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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