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FTAco07
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In reply to LMCane • 2:08p, 11/3/22
AG
Yes, 2/10 is the most commonly cited, but it also has the most instances of false signals and varying lags. The 3mo/10Y is the most reliable with the most consistent lag time of 6-15 months with a median of about 12.

It's the same signal, just on a bit more extreme.
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LMCane
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In reply to FTAco07 • 2:15p, 11/3/22
FTAco07 said:
Yes, 2/10 is the most commonly cited, but it also has the most instances of false signals and varying lags. The 3mo/10Y is the most reliable with the most consistent lag time of 6-15 months with a median of about 12.

It's the same signal, just on a bit more extreme.
good information there thanks
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Brewmaster • 2:23p, 11/3/22
AG
perma Brew doomster said:
Philip J Fry said:
I started trading off Bollinger bands yesterday. How have I gone this long without looking at these?
agree, I use them with levels and they're money. I use them with 3 min or 5 min chart, for scalping.


Same. 3 minute BOIL chart has been mostly money.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 2:27p, 11/3/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
They help but they're not 100%


Curious to know what you use? I tend to look at a combination of RSI and MACD for longer term swing trades. What do you do for your day trading? I know you're a fan of ATR.
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Spoony Love
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3:00p, 11/3/22
AG
Bass turd market
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topher06
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3:01p, 11/3/22
Quite the dump into close, did something happen?
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Spoony Love
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3:05p, 11/3/22
AG
If XOM dips again overnight, I'm going after the same options I picked up today. I cut it for 80% near the peak today and let XOM chop til close.

Listen to Farmer, he needs to capitalize with a newsletter.
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cryption
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In reply to Spoony Love • 3:10p, 11/3/22
I have the same plan, I closed my XOM calls for a nice win before it chopped around mid day.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Spoony Love • 3:14p, 11/3/22
AG
Spoony Love said:
If XOM dips again overnight, I'm going after the same options I picked up today. I cut it for 80% near the peak today and let XOM chop til close.

Listen to Farmer, he needs to capitalize with a newsletter.
we would be so lucky! XOM lottos could be fun.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to topher06 • 3:18p, 11/3/22
AG
topher06 said:
Quite the dump into close, did something happen?
couldn't reclaim 3750, no buyers really. Looks like a bear flag now with yesterday plus today. Still quite oversold though, could still bounce overnight or tomorrow.
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Bonfire1996
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3:55p, 11/3/22
AG
It's bloody from here.

Our mortgage rates today went to "best 30 yr rate 7% with 2 points"

Woof. Nothing of any size is going to close at that rate. Nothing.
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Golf1
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4:05p, 11/3/22
AG


Never seen or followed this guy but it does all look like past charts.
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BlueTaze
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In reply to Golf1 • 4:19p, 11/3/22
Panda's pinned tweet from April calls for a 5-8 year bear market, with S&P best min target of 1550 and worst case 666. I just don't see the Fed letting that happen.
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Bonfire1996
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In reply to BlueTaze • 4:33p, 11/3/22
AG
BlueTaze said:
Panda's pinned tweet from April calls for a 5-8 year bear market, with S&P best min target of 1550 and worst case 666. I just don't see the Fed letting that happen.
666 is the 2009 low. I remember it clearly.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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4:50p, 11/3/22
AG
So everyone's all bearish now, right? Seems retail would get wrecked by a red open then big green tomorrow. Spy max pain is 381
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 6:22p, 11/3/22
AG
Philip J Fry said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
They help but they're not 100%


Curious to know what you use? I tend to look at a combination of RSI and MACD for longer term swing trades. What do you do for your day trading? I know you're a fan of ATR.


I guess this would be buying at demand or selling at supply, but I look for a clear reversal or breakout / breakdown to buy. I look at EMAs and I look at VWAP. In general you don't want to go long when below VWAP and you don't want to go short when above it. This simple rule makes a big difference.

Let me post an example today. I bought UPRO at 31.05 with a stop at 30.85. I ended up selling at 31.45. Reward was twice my risk, and so a worthwhile trade.





You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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6:30p, 11/3/22
AG
Here is a loss today where I ignored my rule. Amazon had a 15 minute low and I thought it would get a VWAP tap.

I traded it again a second time and got it, but this one pissed me off. What you'll see is I was wrong fast and not for much.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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6:40p, 11/3/22
AG
Here's another loser. I bought yesterday AH expecting some type of retrace. When I saw that this was going to gap down, I let it have the IB period to see if it would bottom. It did. I set my stop there and then it promptly lost that.

That said, taking a $2 per share haircut is not that bad when it closed at $83.5. I think it will get back over $87 again but when something goes below -3, I want to see it rebound.


You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 6:55p, 11/3/22
Being wrong fast and not by much is the key to trading. I've gotten much better at that and I have been MUCH more consistently green. Traders really do want every trade outcome to be small loss, small gain, or big gain. Even if someone's hot rate isn't great they can still make money. Pair that risk discipline with a good system and it really works well.
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topher06
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6:57p, 11/3/22
Expecting a bloody open, will probably buy some calls in the morning*

* depending on Astros game tonight
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jimmo
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 7:04p, 11/3/22
thanks 30K !
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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7:58p, 11/3/22
I bought some SPXS after the close to hold overnight. I feel like SPX was pegged to that 20-day, but I think it'll follow Nasdaq down below that tomorrow. If we gap down I'll likely close most of it at the open.
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BlueTaze
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8:03p, 11/3/22
Yes, these are long form, but still better than ten 5min CNBC segments on fed. Mike Green from "Simplify" is another guy worth listening to for deeper insight into fed endgames.

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BaylorSpineGuy
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8:19p, 11/3/22
Here's some depressing material to read tonight.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hedge-fund-giant-elliott-warns-looming-hyperinflation-could-lead-to-global-societal-collapse-11667470081

No idea if this is hyperbole from this hedge fund or not, but sure sounds serious.
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:24p, 11/3/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Here's some depressing material to read tonight.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hedge-fund-giant-elliott-warns-looming-hyperinflation-could-lead-to-global-societal-collapse-11667470081

No idea if this is hyperbole from this hedge fund or not, but sure sounds serious.

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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to ProgN • 8:27p, 11/3/22
ProgN said:
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Here's some depressing material to read tonight.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hedge-fund-giant-elliott-warns-looming-hyperinflation-could-lead-to-global-societal-collapse-11667470081

No idea if this is hyperbole from this hedge fund or not, but sure sounds serious.



Does this mean I'm not gonna be able to buy a home next year? Guess I'll be a lifetime renter
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:30p, 11/3/22
You'll probably have pick of the litter next year.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:40p, 11/3/22
AG
so did your buddy with the $150k bet diamond hand the puts into the close?

although regardless, tell him never do it again! lol.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:50p, 11/3/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Here's some depressing material to read tonight.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hedge-fund-giant-elliott-warns-looming-hyperinflation-could-lead-to-global-societal-collapse-11667470081

No idea if this is hyperbole from this hedge fund or not, but sure sounds serious.
JMHO, Elliott Management is a cancer. Any time they take a stake in a company that you own, either hold your nose or get out.


vvv From the article vvv
Quote:
They estimated that markets have not fallen enough yet and equity markets could drop more than 50% would be "normal," adding that they couldn't predict when that would happen.
^^^ When discussing markets,..."You can give them a number or you can give them a date, but you never give them both."
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 8:51p, 11/3/22
AG
Bob Knights Paper Hands said:
Being wrong fast and not by much is the key to trading. I've gotten much better at that and I have been MUCH more consistently green. Traders really do want every trade outcome to be small loss, small gain, or big gain. Even if someone's hot rate isn't great they can still make money. Pair that risk discipline with a good system and it really works well.
4 sentences and you summed it up perfectly!
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to Brewmaster • 8:59p, 11/3/22
perma Brew doomster said:
so did your buddy with the $150k bet diamond hand the puts into the close?

although regardless, tell him never do it again! lol.


Lol he's playing daily SPX puts too and added some SPY puts out to Monday. He was up like $500K at one point today. Yeesh. What an animal. He's calling for another gap down at the open. I could see gap down here but I also see a bullish abandoned baby. Next day determines the fate.

I bought calls to hedge for tomorrow but still have my Monday 365P's.
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FJ43
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In reply to FJ43 • 9:13p, 11/3/22
FJ43 said:

Nice recovery post crap earnings. Options out a bit.


Hope someone took this setup from a few days ago posted.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to FJ43 • 9:15p, 11/3/22
FJ43 said:
BAC post earning flagging above 200.

Had a little pop after posted. Still watching this one and I didn't enter

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to FJ43 • 9:19p, 11/3/22
FJ43 said:

Looking for setups this evening. Not one I typically trade but is a Farmer special. Know T has been one he has keyed on previously.

Watch this one for gap fill potentially. Post earning.

About time for me to enter this one. Farmer special. Would play shares for gap fill hold. Or…options out to March. 20c for me if so.



Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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9:26p, 11/3/22

Hmmmm interesting chart. Volume. Consolidating.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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