Brian Earl Spilner said:

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That was a weird candle on BOIL...

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EIA storage numbers came out. There was a bigger weekly draw than expected and inventory is slightly above the 5 year average. Nat Gas storage levels are in a comfortable range, when Nat Gas was in rally mode the storage levels were below normal. We have record Nat Gas production so need shutdown of production or huge demand growth, otherwise this is normal. Even with a winter storm, I wouldn't expect a huge price spike because we are already well stocked and any sudden demand spike will be offset by record production.
Also Freeport LNG startup is unknown. Could be another month or two.

Man, it's crazy how often the setup presents itself.

8/21 EMA cross on the 5 minute... if you just wait for a 21 EMA back test, and enter then, you would have banked. I'm done trading for the day, but that's a setup I really like.




Edit to credit 30K. I've watched 8/21 cross like crazy since he showed me. I need to play it more often.

YOU DID!

Triple_Bagger said:

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Thanks Farmer!

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You're welcome.

Most U.S. refineries taking down time between now and May.

In the past, crude would do poorly in recession as U.S. Big Oil was incentivized by Govt to produce crude quickly and flood the market crashing oil/energy prices. That play is not in the playbook this time. And, no industry capex spending/investment over last 3 years to keep up with a 3% nominal annual growth, never happened. Oil industry will not be able to play catch up in 12 months. Last, this Administration is anti-fossil fuels and there is no incentive for U.S. Big Oil to invest in projects. OPEC+ has only achieve their noted maximum production capacity 3 times and never held it longer than 60 days in each case - that was years ago.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Missed this.

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How?! You predicted it all morning

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Remember post about being compromised?

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Thanks for the feedback and insight today. I appreciate you sharing to help us all get better. I love your signature "trading for freedom". That is my goal. You certainly have earned the freedom to take breaks. I think watching you take the break today was an important reminder for me to do the same on days when my mental state is not charged and ready to go.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Triple_Bagger said:

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Thanks Farmer!

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You're welcome.

Most U.S. refineries taking down time between now and May.

In the past, crude would do poorly in recession as U.S. Big Oil was incentivized by Govt to produce crude quickly and flood the market crashing oil/energy prices. That play is not in the playbook this time. And, no industry capex spending/investment over last 3 years to keep up with a 3% nominal annual growth, never happened. Oil industry will not be able to play catch up in 12 months. Last, this Administration is anti-fossil fuels and there is no incentive for U.S. Big Oil to invest in projects. OPEC+ has only achieve their noted maximum production capacity 3 times and never held it longer than 60 days in each case - that was years ago.

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I learn so much about oil from your posts. Even on my job days, I come back here at night and religiously read this post for information. Never quit learning. Thank you Farmer!

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Triple_Bagger said:

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How do you think oil will perform during a recession?

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-In short, crude is bullish.
-Investment Banks that review commodities and equities are projecting 2023 average of $90-95 oil, yet the energy equities 2023 Price Targets are like $65 crude. The Price Targets on energy equities is off.
-Further, equities don't chase commodities. Commodities will come up to meet equities. Crude has been underperforming.
-If theres so much crude, why release SPR? (SPR releases should be over)
-DOE couldnt find anyone to provide an offer for Feb23 delivery of crude to the SPR in the $72 to $67 price range. They know crude is going up and they're going to miss the boat on refilling the SPR.
-if you check out Brent and WTI in the nearby and March contracts, using the 5 minute interval for volume, at exacting 225pmET, you will note that someone is establishing a Long position for the last 7 days. The volume of this 5 minute period dwarfs all other 5 minute periods and it's not even close. Yesterday's purchases were about half of the previous 6 days. However, when 12,000 to 19,000 contracts of each WTI and Brent are being purchased and one contract is 1000 barrels and they arent even trying to hide it, for 7 days at 225pmET something is up. I think it is the U.S. Govt buying a paper Long to offset the SPR Short they cant buy in the cash market as a hedge to higher crude prices that are coming.
-The world crude S&D with China reopening will really start to appear in a robust sense in Q2; albeit, you can already see demand ramping China. Air traffic increasing and jet fuel demand in China are moving upward fast, all other energy sectors there will hit full stride by Q2.

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Would an oil ETF like USO or UCO be a way to play the crude catching up with equities?

Or GUSH if we wanted to really go crazy?