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24,947,235 Views | 233715 Replies | Last: 13 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
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6:55a, 1/19/23
AG
Days like today are my least favorite from a trading point of view.

Big sell off, 120 points, in under 24 hours. Probably a bit extended and due for a retrace at any moment on any catalyst but possible it just keeps dumping with a bid less session.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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6:56a, 1/19/23
AG
The action has more or less just gone through every support with the exception of the 3940 support, which based around it for a while, then undercut, retested, then dumped.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 8:02a, 1/19/23
How do you think oil will perform during a recession?
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Heineken-Ashi
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8:05a, 1/19/23
Don't forget this selling started with yet another hit on the long term downward trendline. We've got a newly formed trend down in daily beer candles.

Play for reversal all you want, but you better be watching small timeframes and getting out quick.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Charismatic Megafauna
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8:23a, 1/19/23
AG
If 389 doesn't reclaim and hold i think we see 378.3 again in short order
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:25a, 1/19/23
AG
Baylor did you treat the family to Sizzler last night?
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Spoony Love
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8:33a, 1/19/23
AG
How about we close that opening gap then turn back down?
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Golf1
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8:38a, 1/19/23
AG
Really want to see us retest yesterdays lows before I start looking at puts again. Will also be looking for some type of double top/lower high situation.
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Bonfire1996
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8:39a, 1/19/23
AG
Jobless claims below 200,000 again. No recession in sight. Fed will be unrelenting.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 8:42a, 1/19/23
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Baylor did you treat the family to Sizzler last night?


Lol. Shamefully, I came in heavy about 4 days too soon so I've been bagholding for a couple days. Making back unrealized losses now, but trying to find a way to salvage here.

I did open a short position yesterday and closed it at market close to not risk losses. Made decent scratch.

Can't afford sizzler right now tho. lol. Saving for a home that is ever out of reach :-(.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Triple_Bagger • 8:45a, 1/19/23
Triple_Bagger said:
How do you think oil will perform during a recession?


-In short, crude is bullish.
-Investment Banks that review commodities and equities are projecting 2023 average of $90-95 oil, yet the energy equities 2023 Price Targets are like $65 crude. The Price Targets on energy equities is off.
-Further, equities don't chase commodities. Commodities will come up to meet equities. Crude has been underperforming.
-If theres so much crude, why release SPR? (SPR releases should be over)
-DOE couldnt find anyone to provide an offer for Feb23 delivery of crude to the SPR in the $72 to $67 price range. They know crude is going up and they're going to miss the boat on refilling the SPR.
-if you check out Brent and WTI in the nearby and March contracts, using the 5 minute interval for volume, at exacting 225pmET, you will note that someone is establishing a Long position for the last 7 days. The volume of this 5 minute period dwarfs all other 5 minute periods and it's not even close. Yesterday's purchases were about half of the previous 6 days. However, when 12,000 to 19,000 contracts of each WTI and Brent are being purchased and one contract is 1000 barrels and they arent even trying to hide it, for 7 days at 225pmET something is up. I think it is the U.S. Govt buying a paper Long to offset the SPR Short they cant buy in the cash market as a hedge to higher crude prices that are coming.
-The world crude S&D with China reopening will really start to appear in a robust sense in Q2; albeit, you can already see demand ramping China. Air traffic increasing and jet fuel demand in China are moving upward fast, all other energy sectors there will hit full stride by Q2.
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:47a, 1/19/23
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Baylor did you treat the family to Sizzler last night?


Lol. Shamefully, I came in heavy about 4 days too soon so I've been bagholding for a couple days. Making back unrealized losses now, but trying to find a way to salvage here.

I did open a short position yesterday and closed it at market close to not risk losses. Made decent scratch.

Can't afford sizzler right now tho. lol. Saving for a home that is ever out of reach :-(.
And a little bambino that's otw.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:49a, 1/19/23
AG
Tough to time these things. Claw it back buddy i believe the ball's back in your court
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 8:50a, 1/19/23
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Tough to time these things. Claw it back buddy i believe the ball's back in your court


Learning some valuable lessons these last few days and proud of myself for owning it. Expensive tuition but hoping I can unwind profitably or without major losses. Thanks to all!
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Bonfire97
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9:01a, 1/19/23
AG
Quote:
I am still 100% only trading SPX.
Ragoo's comment is referring to trading SPY, correct?
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Colt98
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9:04a, 1/19/23
AG
Yea I knew better yesterday morning. Was sitting waiting on market to open and then got on a phone call. That call cost me a boat load, not exiting all my calls at open. Ended up getting out with profits, but missies the spy puts. Then dum dum thought spy may bounce and chased a few calls that wiped out all my gains for the last few days…. I knew better and actually didn't need to tradie after I sold my calls. I had cowboys waiting on me to load cattle. 30k's example was well noted and I appreciate it. You would think after the last year I would have learned.
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Colt98
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9:04a, 1/19/23
AG
Now I'm sitting here looking to enter baba Feb calls. I just need to put the phone down today.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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9:05a, 1/19/23
We should have open mind here. Best moves just keep selling and melt through s/r lines. However, a right shoulder could form here for a relief and then sell off afterwards. That sets up a larger H&S over last 2-3 months (up-slanted neckline).
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BaylorSpineGuy
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9:08a, 1/19/23
I'm the one who has fairly certain the market was gonna double top last week at 395. Those 4 days and additional 5 pts burned real nice. But I was confident in the reversal and indicators were right. I was just early. I have a week+ to get those 380P's in the money. Am still fairly confident they will be or I can roll them out.

My biggest issue is I took a large position size so before or after I roll, I will reduce position size.

Again, lessons learned!
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Txducker
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 9:14a, 1/19/23
AG
Bonfire1996 said:
Jobless claims below 200,000 again. No recession in sight. Fed will be unrelenting.
I think people are feeling the effects of inflation and are working extra or second jobs to maintain their standard of living. I see my coworkers in the hospital trying to pick up extra shifts more than normal. Some of that extra working could also be the seasonal increase we see during the winter. Some are picking up second prn jobs with other companies. I think the jobless claims rising will be a lagging indicator we are heading into a recession. Consumers will have already quit spending by the time these jobless numbers get inflated.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:25a, 1/19/23
AG
Lots of puts. Watch them rip it.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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ProgN
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9:26a, 1/19/23
CPI Home : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)

Quote:
JANUARY 2023 CPI WEIGHT UPDATE

Starting with January 2023 data, the BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using two years of expenditure data.
That's one way to make it look like inflation is decreasing.
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Txducker
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In reply to ProgN • 9:30a, 1/19/23
AG
ProgN said:
CPI Home : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)

Quote:
JANUARY 2023 CPI WEIGHT UPDATE

Starting with January 2023 data, the BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using two years of expenditure data.
That's one way to make it look like inflation is decreasing.
In the future, comparing historical data will not be an apples to apples comparison. Spin, manipulate, massage the data to fit your need = pathetic.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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9:30a, 1/19/23
AG
That was a weird candle on BOIL...
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ProgN
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In reply to Txducker • 9:31a, 1/19/23
Most people won't realize the significance of this change. I'll have calls in place before the next CPI print because I believe it will setup a heck of a rally.
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Golf1
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 9:32a, 1/19/23
AG
Same thing happened to me. I was grabbing puts during CPI report and I was doing good(built a larger position) and all of a sudden it reversed, I was still confident but It ran up to 400 when I was getting feb 17 385 puts so I was comfortable holding. My thought process was right and I turned in a good profit this morning at market open but getting in at 400(which was a key level I was looking at) would have been a perfect entry and a huge profit. It's a good lesson when you are still able to make money but waiting for the right entry or cutting losses when you notice the reverse is a lesson we all can learn from and it's something you can't teach.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to ProgN • 9:32a, 1/19/23
ProgN said:
CPI Home : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)

Quote:
JANUARY 2023 CPI WEIGHT UPDATE

Starting with January 2023 data, the BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using two years of expenditure data.
That's one way to make it look like inflation is decreasing.
Pencils so sharp you can't even see the lines..
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irish pete ag06
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9:37a, 1/19/23
AG
When/if QQQ touches 274, I expect a decent bounce opportunity.

Gamma wall at 274, it's the 21 Day EMA and has been a level of past channel trend line.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to Golf1 • 9:45a, 1/19/23
If I had bought the 2/17 expiry, I wouldn't have batted an eye but I was holding 1/27's. I figured things would loosen up after VIX expired but I got caught short on that feeble rally. I've made back almost 40% of the position tho. Happy for the recovery :-).
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to ProgN • 9:50a, 1/19/23
AG
ProgN said:
CPI Home : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)

Quote:
JANUARY 2023 CPI WEIGHT UPDATE

Starting with January 2023 data, the BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using two years of expenditure data.
That's one way to make it look like inflation is decreasing.

When your policies suck, just change the numbers /Dems
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:53a, 1/19/23
AG
Close to pre market low
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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irish pete ag06
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9:53a, 1/19/23
AG
Alert is set for QQQ 274. I'm trying to look at charts less and just let an alert bring me to a trade.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:57a, 1/19/23
AG
Ok. Liquidity taken and long stops hit. Let's see.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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10:07a, 1/19/23
AG
Now this gets interesting. 3896 is a target on the downside.

You want 3920ish to be long.

E mini
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 10:10a, 1/19/23
AG
irish pete ag06 said:
Alert is set for QQQ 274. I'm trying to look at charts less and just let an alert bring me to a trade.
Didn't get to my alert, but I longed TQQQ for the bounce. 1/2 position @18.75

Sold half at 18.90.

Stop set on 2nd half at break even.
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