Triple_Bagger said:
How do you think oil will perform during a recession?
-In short, crude is bullish.
-Investment Banks that review commodities and equities are projecting 2023 average of $90-95 oil, yet the energy equities 2023 Price Targets are like $65 crude. The Price Targets on energy equities is off.
-Further, equities don't chase commodities. Commodities will come up to meet equities. Crude has been underperforming.
-If theres so much crude, why release SPR? (SPR releases should be over)
-DOE couldnt find anyone to provide an offer for Feb23 delivery of crude to the SPR in the $72 to $67 price range. They know crude is going up and they're going to miss the boat on refilling the SPR.
-if you check out Brent and WTI in the nearby and March contracts, using the 5 minute interval for volume, at exacting 225pmET, you will note that someone is establishing a Long position for the last 7 days. The volume of this 5 minute period dwarfs all other 5 minute periods and it's not even close. Yesterday's purchases were about half of the previous 6 days. However, when 12,000 to 19,000 contracts of each WTI and Brent are being purchased and one contract is 1000 barrels and they arent even trying to hide it, for 7 days at 225pmET something is up. I think it is the U.S. Govt buying a paper Long to offset the SPR Short they cant buy in the cash market as a hedge to higher crude prices that are coming.
-The world crude S&D with China reopening will really start to appear in a robust sense in Q2; albeit, you can already see demand ramping China. Air traffic increasing and jet fuel demand in China are moving upward fast, all other energy sectors there will hit full stride by Q2.