Are you holding VIX? Ive had 25C for a couple of weeks and it seems like it doesn't matter if the VIX is up 8% or not, It always seems to be red. Really not sure how it trades at all.

Market is fighting over direction right now. This could reverse that dump: fade the first move perhaps

Towns03 said:

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MasonRamsay said:

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For all the bag holders like me. It may be a hopium play from here on out lol

Delays are the devils elixir. Hey, it’s been a frustrating stock complicated by a terrible environment. Now it’s year end tax loss selling. They have to get to production 2023 or it’s likely gonna fail.

— Disciplined Trading (@oldarmy1) December 14, 2022

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Didn't someone post a pic of a plant ground breaking this week?

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I just tax harvested. It's about to go.

Made about $1000 today. Gonna walk away here. No doubt leaving some meat on my plate but I'd rather not choke. Don't wanna chase.

Am gonna swing VIX calls (VIXperation today), so it may loosen up after today.

I took 3 trades here and won on all of them. Tough trading so will take my win and move along.

With Jpow and the fed behind us, a Santa rally could be brewing now.

Triple_Bagger said:

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The only bullish statement from Powell was that future rate hikes will be smaller, but everything is is bad for equities.

Fed expects to move rates above 5% and keep them there until 2024. Powell said they don't want to cut rates prematurely.

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It was EXACTLY as expected. Maintain hawkish tone while trying hard to sound hopeful so he doesn't grinch up Christmas.

Nothing has changed. FED is going to 5+ and parking there. Always were. If inflation comes down, they drop when in the clear. If inflation goes up again, FED will raise again.

Triple_Bagger said:

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The only bullish statement from Powell was that future rate hikes will be smaller, but everything is is bad for equities.

Fed expects to move rates above 5% and keep them there until 2024. Powell said they don't want to cut rates prematurely.

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Been outside all day dealing with snow. Appears I didn't miss much. That 5% remark,...glad they see it my way. ; - ))

My post down below from 12/12. I'm not omnipotent or clairvoyant. I'm a slow learner with minimal retention. All I know is that the math says the Gov't can't service the debt at 5.5% to 6%, unless Congress cuts Medicare or Social Security. Powell needs +1 interest rate over inflation to stop inflation and he's not going to that level - can't. They (Fed and U.S. Gov't) have to let energy markets run to slow inflation/economy. The Fed used energy as a tool in the past for slowing, but this time the Administration's alignment with Green Energy may render the energy tool useless. Artificial suppression of fossil fuels just to make G7 Price Caps look like they are working. Germany's salvation is Freeport LNG. Germany must have really honked this Administration off for the U.S. Gov't to be so hell-bent on not allowing it to reopen. If Freeport opens this winter, U.S. NatGas goes parabolic. Can't have U.S. NatGas prices rising, can we..?

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Once Powell gets to 5.0% / 5.5%, I think that's where the rubber meets the road. I say he can't move higher, or for more than 3 months, then has to cut. He's gotta be +1% over inflation to stop it. I don't think that happens. Powell can't get the rate to 7% or 8% Gov't and Fed needs to let energy markets run....it' will slow the economy on its own. JMO.

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They screwed things up bigly. If economic slow down was the goal to tame inflation, they should have let energy run. Rate hikes haven't done squat. Prolonged $150+ oil would have hit aggregate demand quicker than rate hikes. We're going to be in a position next year where energy in high and rates are high. Double whammy. And Trump tax cuts expire 2024 to prepare for.

The market during Trump years was awesome. We had cheap e energy, low taxes, and dovish fed. Next year we have 1 of the 3 pieces

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Triple_Bagger said:

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The only bullish statement from Powell was that future rate hikes will be smaller, but everything is is bad for equities.

Fed expects to move rates above 5% and keep them there until 2024. Powell said they don't want to cut rates prematurely.

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Germany's salvation is Freeport LNG. Germany must have really honked this Administration off for the U.S. Gov't to be so hell-bent on not allowing it to reopen. If Freeport opens this winter, U.S. NatGas goes parabolic. Can't have U.S. NatGas prices rising, can we..?

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Once Powell gets to 5.0% / 5.5%, I think that's where the rubber meets the road. I say he can't move higher, or for more than 3 months, then has to cut. He's gotta be +1% over inflation to stop it. I don't think that happens. Powell can't get the rate to 7% or 8% Gov't and Fed needs to let energy markets run....it' will slow the economy on its own. JMO.

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Like blowing up a pipeline underwater to keep Russian oil from flowing to certain countries?

Dan Scott said:

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They screwed things up bigly. If economic slow down was the goal to tame inflation, they should have let energy run. Rate hikes haven't done squat. Prolonged $150+ oil would have hit aggregate demand quicker than rate hikes. We're going to be in a position next year where energy in high and rates are high. Double whammy. And Trump tax cuts expire 2024 to prepare for.

The market during Trump years was awesome. We had cheap e energy, low taxes, and dovish fed. Next year we have 1 of the 3 pieces

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They are doing it on purpose to appease the green energy lunatics in their party.

Dan Scott said:

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If economic slow down was the goal to tame inflation, they should have let energy run.

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Lots of people say this, but I'm sure the reason it hasn't been done is because nobody really knows how pervasive the ripple effect would be. For one, it's super regressive. Someone who can barely afford to fill their tank at $3 is going under at $5 gas.
Most of us would groan about a $200 fill up but at minimum wage someone might just decide to file disability and stay at home rather than spend all that money on gas to work their first 2 hours just to break even on the commute. Going into the winter, the entire rural northeast that heats their homes with fuel oil (which they buy once a year, not get billed monthly usage) would be crushed/forced to take out credit at increasing rates to keep from freezing. So then you get 25 year old communists running for office on the platform of nationalizing oil, and actually having a shot at it, or we end up making terrible deals with nasty countries. I guess we could also end up putting a bunch more holes in GOM which would be fine, but that takes a while and i think the short term effects would be way more crippling than anybody wants