plowe32 said:
Your posts are very helpful. I try to read them all, but miss a few days a week, so apologies if I missed these answers:
I know you are long on XOM. What else are you/have you targeted in the energy sector? Any options for you as well?
XOM major holding for me and CVX is large. I haven't focused on any others like I do these 2. I watch others and make notes, but nothing to the degree of these 2. (XOM is the #2 NatGas producer in the world and #1 in the U.S. They aren't just gasoline. Just like Stacy's mom, XOM got it goin' on..)
In the O&G small caps I'm certain their are opportunities, but I have no opinions on them. I have too many small caps in other sectors and I am controlling/monitoring my overall weighting in the Caps.
I mentioned CQP previously as on my buy list within 6 months. They stubbed their toe and I'm having second thoughts. I haven't taken them off my list. To me, CQP would be a good takeover candidate for XOM. CQP manages their debt well in my opinion. VLO and HES I think are strong and good ownership. BKR might be one just to start collecting here and there, because at some point, oil field service is going to be needed in a desperate way. From a share price standpoint, BKR versus SLB and HAL appears to have more room to the upside in a semi-long term hold scenario.
I am watching XOM Call Leaps in Jan'24, Jun'24 and Jan'25. I'd be selling Calls. My criteria is - in my portfolio, my Strikes and associated premiums are dependent on return versus identified High Yield Issues that I monitor. If I can sell the Leaps and capture a premium that yields the same ROR as the alternative High Yield security(~12 to 14% 'good junk') based on the initial principal investment, at a strike that protects the ownership level or above, I will do that. And, I continue to collect the dividend. Then I take the Leap premiums and either buy the High Yield security or some other hot stock I want to own for growth or trading. My Option activity is based on a longer hold time and I am satisfied with my returns. I don't trade as much as the other folks do here on this thread. I just have fewer trades with a longer time period play - somewhere between a trader & investor. My initial short term plays are 12 to 36 months based on my prior research (DD). My long term stuff I look at as 7 years plus. Likely my Option activity will not match up to what you want to do, but it's what I do. If the occasion presents itself, I will go out 2 weeks and sell Calls and ladder the rest out for the succeeding 4 weeks.
Side story - Regarding trading, in my late 30's & early 40's during the dot com days, I was trading 20 to 30 trades a day in Tech/DotCom, plus working full-time in cash & futures ag commodity trading. I don't think I slept for about 4 years there. I did mega research at night and about lost my second wife in the process, but we made it through and hit cruise control at age 44. My goal was cruise control at 38, but my divorce some years earlier set me back quite a bit. My advice I give on marriage - take all the time necessary to make sure you got the right one, because you can get married in any State for about $100; however, if you pick the wrong one, it will cost a lot more than $100 dollars to get out - take your time. .........Regarding the day job, it was about year 3 of the 4 years where I didn't sleep, I was putting on a short position in a physical commodity. It was the largest short the business unit had ever taken on. The BU Trading VP had concerns about the short and I got questioned. In the next 2 days I doubled my short. The Floor Manager came to my desk and said I had to stop and they took my contract pad. He asked, "Do you still feel good about this short position?" I replied, "Yeah, and if I could double again, I would". In 12 months and fiscal year end, that position accounted for 50% of the trading unit profits and 20%=$8 million of the business unit profits - records in a tough low margin biz. Internally, I was a "trading legend" and financially I was awarded a $10k bonus. Risk?/Reward? Rumor was the BU President already had the Legal Dept draw up a termination/separation agreement for me before the short had any time to deliver the rewards. (ye of little faith) After that, I was on the phone with every headhunter looking for a new opp. That was a long time ago. Secured a new position in Arizona and we were off to a better life. Didn't "have to" work, but we hadn't ever lived in the desert before either. Fun times!
Hope some of this helps you.