This week will be tricky. Could see a cup with handle pattern here or continued rejection of the downtrend line. My bias is downtrend line rejection, but I'm not gonna swing any options this week until pattern is clear. Get ready for major volatility and headfakes. OpEx, CPI, and FOMC - enough opportunity here during daytime hours to make healthy money, but just don't wanna get loaded up in the wrong direction.

Good luck this week, everyone. I have all day spine case tomorrow so will be limited, but I should be free on Wednesday to capture some of the move then. Tuesday is clinic for me, and the move happens pre-market so will likely just be watching.

Also worrying watching USO. Oil looks to be putting in a bottom. Farmer is the expert in this sphere, but could be opportunity for money on USO calls.

Nat Gas up 10%

So….BOIL will be up 30% tomorrow if that holds?

Dan Scott said:

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Nat Gas up 10%

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Let's see if it holds overnight. I have a lot of BOIL from when it was in the 20s but would love to unload the shares I bought in the 30s at a healthy profit soon.

Philip J Fry said:

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So….BOIL will be up 30% tomorrow if that holds?

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BOIL is 2x leveraged, not 3x

wanderer said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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So….BOIL will be up 30% tomorrow if that holds?

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BOIL is 2x leveraged, not 3x

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Boil would open around 40 at current prices.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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wanderer said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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So….BOIL will be up 30% tomorrow if that holds?

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BOIL is 2x leveraged, not 3x

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Boil would open around 40 at current prices.

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I approve this message

China engaging on a 180 on COVID zero, hold onto your butts because oil is going to get interesting real quick with the cold front and a potential OPEC+ cut as well.

China to remove its official movement-tracking app, "Travel Card", used to help limit spread of coronavirus, from Dec 13. Inquiry channels such as text messages, web pages, WeChat messaging service, Ant Group's Alipay, and APPs will be offline simultaneously.#China #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/xER6PKKg54

— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) December 11, 2022

China's Top Medical Adviser Says Omicron's Risks Same as Flu https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-11/china-s-top-medical-adviser-says-omicron-risks-similar-to-flu

wanderer said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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So….BOIL will be up 30% tomorrow if that holds?

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BOIL is 2x leveraged, not 3x

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I think trading is actually easier if you're stupid.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I think trading is actually easier if you're stupid.

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thank you 30k
that explains why I struggle

so - everything looks bad right now. . Ironically, everyone has been saying tech looks weak, it actually looks the best.

really doesn't get more simple than this.

plowe32 said:

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Your posts are very helpful. I try to read them all, but miss a few days a week, so apologies if I missed these answers:

I know you are long on XOM. What else are you/have you targeted in the energy sector? Any options for you as well?

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XOM major holding for me and CVX is large. I haven't focused on any others like I do these 2. I watch others and make notes, but nothing to the degree of these 2. (XOM is the #2 NatGas producer in the world and #1 in the U.S. They aren't just gasoline. Just like Stacy's mom, XOM got it goin' on..)

In the O&G small caps I'm certain their are opportunities, but I have no opinions on them. I have too many small caps in other sectors and I am controlling/monitoring my overall weighting in the Caps.

I mentioned CQP previously as on my buy list within 6 months. They stubbed their toe and I'm having second thoughts. I haven't taken them off my list. To me, CQP would be a good takeover candidate for XOM. CQP manages their debt well in my opinion. VLO and HES I think are strong and good ownership. BKR might be one just to start collecting here and there, because at some point, oil field service is going to be needed in a desperate way. From a share price standpoint, BKR versus SLB and HAL appears to have more room to the upside in a semi-long term hold scenario.

I am watching XOM Call Leaps in Jan'24, Jun'24 and Jan'25. I'd be selling Calls. My criteria is - in my portfolio, my Strikes and associated premiums are dependent on return versus identified High Yield Issues that I monitor. If I can sell the Leaps and capture a premium that yields the same ROR as the alternative High Yield security(~12 to 14% 'good junk') based on the initial principal investment, at a strike that protects the ownership level or above, I will do that. And, I continue to collect the dividend. Then I take the Leap premiums and either buy the High Yield security or some other hot stock I want to own for growth or trading. My Option activity is based on a longer hold time and I am satisfied with my returns. I don't trade as much as the other folks do here on this thread. I just have fewer trades with a longer time period play - somewhere between a trader & investor. My initial short term plays are 12 to 36 months based on my prior research (DD). My long term stuff I look at as 7 years plus. Likely my Option activity will not match up to what you want to do, but it's what I do. If the occasion presents itself, I will go out 2 weeks and sell Calls and ladder the rest out for the succeeding 4 weeks.

Side story - Regarding trading, in my late 30's & early 40's during the dot com days, I was trading 20 to 30 trades a day in Tech/DotCom, plus working full-time in cash & futures ag commodity trading. I don't think I slept for about 4 years there. I did mega research at night and about lost my second wife in the process, but we made it through and hit cruise control at age 44. My goal was cruise control at 38, but my divorce some years earlier set me back quite a bit. My advice I give on marriage - take all the time necessary to make sure you got the right one, because you can get married in any State for about $100; however, if you pick the wrong one, it will cost a lot more than $100 dollars to get out - take your time. .........Regarding the day job, it was about year 3 of the 4 years where I didn't sleep, I was putting on a short position in a physical commodity. It was the largest short the business unit had ever taken on. The BU Trading VP had concerns about the short and I got questioned. In the next 2 days I doubled my short. The Floor Manager came to my desk and said I had to stop and they took my contract pad. He asked, "Do you still feel good about this short position?" I replied, "Yeah, and if I could double again, I would". In 12 months and fiscal year end, that position accounted for 50% of the trading unit profits and 20%=$8 million of the business unit profits - records in a tough low margin biz. Internally, I was a "trading legend" and financially I was awarded a $10k bonus. Risk?/Reward? Rumor was the BU President already had the Legal Dept draw up a termination/separation agreement for me before the short had any time to deliver the rewards. (ye of little faith) After that, I was on the phone with every headhunter looking for a new opp. That was a long time ago. Secured a new position in Arizona and we were off to a better life. Didn't "have to" work, but we hadn't ever lived in the desert before either. Fun times!

Hope some of this helps you.

Every post you make I absorb like a sponge. You're a legend on here, so it's no surprise to me you're a legend elsewhere too. Thanks for sharing!

I went to Vegas this weekend and there were felt hats everywhere, actually made me think of your affinity for them when I saw all of them at the aiport.

Mike Leach (The Pirate) was rushed to the hospital tonight. A lot of unconfirmed reports are implying he has passed away. I hope it's not true.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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plowe32 said:

---

Your posts are very helpful. I try to read them all, but miss a few days a week, so apologies if I missed these answers:

I know you are long on XOM. What else are you/have you targeted in the energy sector? Any options for you as well?

---

XOM major holding for me and CVX is large. I haven't focused on any others like I do these 2. I watch others and make notes, but nothing to the degree of these 2. (XOM is the #2 NatGas producer in the world and #1 in the U.S. They aren't just gasoline. Just like Stacy's mom, XOM got it goin' on..)

In the O&G small caps I'm certain their are opportunities, but I have no opinions on them. I have too many small caps in other sectors and I am controlling/monitoring my overall weighting in the Caps.

I mentioned CQP previously as on my buy list within 6 months. They stubbed their toe and I'm having second thoughts. I haven't taken them off my list. To me, CQP would be a good takeover candidate for XOM. CQP manages their debt well in my opinion. VLO and HES I think are strong and good ownership. BKR might be one just to start collecting here and there, because at some point, oil field service is going to be needed in a desperate way. From a share price standpoint, BKR versus SLB and HAL appears to have more room to the upside in a semi-long term hold scenario.

I am watching XOM Call Leaps in Jan'24, Jun'24 and Jan'25. I'd be selling Calls. My criteria is - in my portfolio, my Strikes and associated premiums are dependent on return versus identified High Yield Issues that I monitor. If I can sell the Leaps and capture a premium that yields the same ROR as the alternative High Yield security(~12 to 14% 'good junk') based on the initial principal investment, at a strike that protects the ownership level or above, I will do that. And, I continue to collect the dividend. Then I take the Leap premiums and either buy the High Yield security or some other hot stock I want to own for growth or trading. My Option activity is based on a longer hold time and I am satisfied with my returns. I don't trade as much as the other folks do here on this thread. I just have fewer trades with a longer time period play - somewhere between a trader & investor. My initial short term plays are 12 to 36 months based on my prior research (DD). My long term stuff I look at as 7 years plus. Likely my Option activity will not match up to what you want to do, but it's what I do. If the occasion presents itself, I will go out 2 weeks and sell Calls and ladder the rest out for the succeeding 4 weeks.

Side story - Regarding trading, in my late 30's & early 40's during the dot com days, I was trading 20 to 30 trades a day in Tech/DotCom, plus working full-time in cash & futures ag commodity trading. I don't think I slept for about 4 years there. I did mega research at night and about lost my second wife in the process, but we made it through and hit cruise control at age 44. My goal was cruise control at 38, but my divorce some years earlier set me back quite a bit. My advice I give on marriage - take all the time necessary to make sure you got the right one, because you can get married in any State for about $100; however, if you pick the wrong one, it will cost a lot more than $100 dollars to get out - take your time. .........Regarding the day job, it was about year 3 of the 4 years where I didn't sleep, I was putting on a short position in a physical commodity. It was the largest short the business unit had ever taken on. The BU Trading VP had concerns about the short and I got questioned. In the next 2 days I doubled my short. The Floor Manager came to my desk and said I had to stop and they took my contract pad. He asked, "Do you still feel good about this short position?" I replied, "Yeah, and if I could double again, I would". In 12 months and fiscal year end, that position accounted for 50% of the trading unit profits and 20%=$8 million of the business unit profits - records in a tough low margin biz. Internally, I was a "trading legend" and financially I was awarded a $10k bonus. Risk?/Reward? Rumor was the BU President already had the Legal Dept draw up a termination/separation agreement for me before the short had any time to deliver the rewards. (ye of little faith) After that, I was on the phone with every headhunter looking for a new opp. That was a long time ago. Secured a new position in Arizona and we were off to a better life. Didn't "have to" work, but we hadn't ever lived in the desert before either. Fun times!

Hope some of this helps you.

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Solid gold sir!

IEA'S BIROL SAYS ENERGY CRISIS MAY BE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT IN 2023

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) December 12, 2022

VIX is up 6% so far but my January 18 25 calls are red? Am I not reading something right with how the VIX trades?