Triple_Bagger said:Fed is not pivoting. Every Fed speaker has said no pivot but no one believes them. Barr just said a few minutes ago:BaylorSpineGuy said:
10Y yield falling pretty good now. Down 3.506 today.
Falling yield…..may mean a few things. Fed about to pivot, which is not historically bullish. May signal a recession very soon. Fed funds rate now above 10Y Treasury yield.
Big money buys bonds for safety plus small interest income.
Curious to see what exactly happens here next.
IT IS A MISTAKE TO BELIEVE THAT CHANGES IN THE PACE OF RATE HIKES INDICATE A SHIFT IN THE FED'S COMMITMENT TO A 2% INFLATION TARGET.
THE FED'S POLICY RATE WILL HAVE TO REMAIN HIGH FOR AN LONG PERIOD OF TIME.
WE AREN'T THINKING ABOUT LOOSENING.
We will be in a deep recession before a pivot.
I understand what you're saying but it has historically been the other way. Major recessions and drawdowns in equities occur after the pivot!
I'm proposing reasons as to why 10Y bond has dropped almost 25 bps in a week without barely a mention. It could be recession, and it could mean a return to more normal interest rate levels. It's the reason to have a discussion…:-)