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23,988,278 Views | 231573 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Swollen Thumb
$30,000 Millionaire
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Just my two cents: the slim majorities are going to create deadlock mostly because there are fewer "centrists" in either party. The biggest thing not being talked about is that Gen Z showed up big. They obviously skew liberal based on their age. I think this unexpected dynamic may shift the landscape assuming that they keep showing up.

The trade to be in will continue to be energy, utilities, commodities, staples, and industrials.

I expect the market will hit both 4050 (SPX) and 3900 this week. This has been a big move and I think consolidation is likely. If it pushes up to 4100+ Without consolidation, I'll be short minded just because of the extreme of the move. I'm expecting range on the indexes. We could obviously puke like OA is saying, I'm just not convinced yet that it's an eminent dump. That said, and most importantly, I'm going to react to whatever happens. If you think about it, the Republicans will win the house and the senate is near dead even. Things are exactly the way they were before the election. The real thing to manage is the rates and the fed!
oldarmy1
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$30,000 Millionaire
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I think 3950 is the key e-mini level to watch.

edit: TA is not letting me upload from desktop at the moment.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Regarding the Windfall Profits Tax on O&G companies.

Maybe the Bill of Attainder means nothing anymore in this here United States, but I'd sue if I was the O&G sector.

Last, that particular Windfall tax is bullish O&G. If the product is taxed, you'll get less of it.

U.K.'s 65% Windfall Tax on the North Sea crude will pretty much halt production (that's a 25% Windfall Tax, a 10% Supplementary Charge and a 30% Petroleum Revenue Tax). This is not encouraging production in the U.K. Same would happen in U.S.
Brewmaster
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looking likely the house goes republican majority now.

would love to see the senate follow suit, but not sure that will happen.
topher06
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How the **** are these western states still not done counting?
Buck Compton
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perma Brew doomster said:

looking likely the house goes republican majority now.

would love to see the senate follow suit, but not sure that will happen.
Senate literally can't follow suit
BaylorSpineGuy
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This is interesting. Some of it over my head but seems this guy discovered the shady nature of FTX/SBF almost 2 yrs ago.

Charismatic Megafauna
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Lol the gold guys found something even more manipulated than gold and they're ready for the dogpile!

(Crypto thread though)
Brewmaster
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topher06 said:

How the **** are these western states still not done counting?
really corrupt voting process. Amazing how machines are shut down and lines are long in republican areas of Arizona and they set aside votes there from red precincts. Hobbs is also in control of all of this, quite the conflict of interest.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Hoping the rally continues this week.
Quacked
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mail in ballots bro
$30,000 Millionaire
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I don't like action like this. Let's see what sets up.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Tech probably needs to cool off some
Quacked
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New investor here


Ive had some extreme luck during the Covid run up. Now im trying to put those gains into long term holds.

Started buying GOOG @ 120 - AMZN @ 110 - TSLA 225 - MSFT 245 . Part of me wants to sell and buy lower, but the plan has always been to just keep averaging down while I can during the next 12-18 months, hold them for 5-10 years, and profit. I know these are long term holds, but part of me is wanting to catch these bear run ups and profit a bit there as well. Ive watched them come back up to my price and dip already again twice, told myself i'd capitalize on the next one, but I'm new and a little nervous about it.

Bob Knights Paper Hands
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We touched the QQQ pivot from back on 10/25 and bounced. I don't know if that will be enough. I thought SOX would get down to the 150sma before bouncing. I scalped a few SPX puts, but am mostly watching this.
Spoony Love
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Maybe I'm seeing things, but this varied price action doesn't have a lot of volume?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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CVX, XOM and WTI

I'm a spread watcher with the majority supporting fundamentals bullish and here's what I see this morning. CVX Ex-Div is 11/17, so watch for CVX to continue to move upward and XOM will trail at a $76 to $72 spread. XOM is slow moving from Ex-Div jet lag last week and/or needs a boost from WTI. Either way, reduce the jet lag or a boost from WTI, I see XOM playing catch up late today or tomorrow. CVX is leading the way the next 48 hours. Last day to get CVX Div is buy on 11/16.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I scalped SPX calls. Just took profits, but still have a runner.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Daily target reached. Peace and let's run this thing up to the 200-day today.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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We are approaching Friday's close, could be a potential pivot. Careful.
Spoony Love
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When will the announcement to stop SPR release come in your opinion?
Brian Earl Spilner
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This is feeling like a slow and steady rise for green finish day to me.
txaggie_08
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Spoony Love said:

When will the announcement to stop SPR release come in your opinion?
Didn't we already have the last SPR sale on 11/1?
FTAG 2000
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Spoony Love said:

When will the announcement to stop SPR release come in your opinion?

Once the Senate races are called. Top of the news will be how Dems retained the Senate, then the SPR stuff will be quietly released Friday at 8 PM when no one is looking.
Brewmaster
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

This is feeling like a slow and steady rise for green finish day to me.
amateur open, that's the first 90 minutes or so. Usually you fade the opening move. aaaaand there it is, a decent drop
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Spoony Love said:

When will the announcement to stop SPR release come in your opinion?
The Gnatsass Breakdown: If the 180 million barrels original commitment is fully shipped in Nov (was supposed to be shipped-out by end of Oct)....AND the additional 15 million barrels of Nov shipment is shipped out in Nov AND the additional 15 million barrels of Dec is shipped out in Dec.....this "should" all be over with by Dec 15th.

The Market: Everyone knows by now that the SPR releases are less than a band-aid at this point. Crude players can act ill-informed, but any continued price suppression in Brent of WTI is more manipulation. The rhetoric is, what will Russia do with all that extra oil? The real statement should be - will Russia have any extra oil to sell?

The G7 Price Caps...."Russia is going to find it very difficult to continue shipping as much oil as they have done when the EU stops buying Russian oil," Yellen said. "They're going to be heavily in search of buyers. And many buyers are reliant on Western services." ...... Less oil at a higher price. .....And........to the nut-jobs in EU and US wanting to Tax crude more, go ahead and see how much more you get.

OPEC+ meets(Dec 5th as I recall) one day before price caps go into effect(Dec 6th as I recall). Expect another production cut announcement by OPEC+. Expect few countries to sign on to the G7 price cap deal. Biden Administration has already threatened retaliation on non-G7 members, who don't sign, but will buy from Russia at prices other than "Price Caps". Let's just get the entire world whizzed-off at us. But,....Brandon will say, shut yo mouth or you don't get yo foreign aid,...everyone falls in line. However, I do think this sort of coercion is not going to end well. I understand Saudi is signing on to the BRIC's alliance and that could actually be a move to displace the US PetroDollar with another currency. That's another rabbit hole at this point, but one not to forget about.

Just a bit more to think about.

Hope this helps.


ETA at 1013am: The SPR has to retain I believe 316 million barrels in inventory - CANNOT go below that level. There are alignments/agreements with the oil players in the SPR.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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XOM, CVX, ABBV and T....I'm feelin' it..


BenRev09
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God bless you Farmer
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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SAVA
FTAG 2000
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Can't find any news on SAVA. Short squeeze or margin call somewhere?

That breaks 45 it can go to 52ish pretty quick.
tailgatetimer10
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https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/14/amazon-reportedly-plans-to-lay-off-about-10000-employees-starting-this-week.html
docaggie
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FTAG 2000 said:

Can't find any news on SAVA. Short squeeze or margin call somewhere?

That breaks 45 it can go to 52ish pretty quick.

I think it's in response to Roche's announcement that their drug didn't pan out. So it started going up and manybe it's getting a short squeeze?
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Quacked
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I bought 100 shares of SAVA @ 2.29 May 2020. Auto sold at 10.00 and I was happy as a lamb for a few weeks lol.
FTAG 2000
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tailgatetimer10 said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/14/amazon-reportedly-plans-to-lay-off-about-10000-employees-starting-this-week.html
Nice of them, Fedex, and Google to wait for midterms to be over before announcing cuts, eh?
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