wanderer said:
Because people like Spilner are posting gifs like that above and all over Twitter?
Ding ding ding.
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Ding ding ding.
Little passive agressive but ok.
FJ43 said:
Hmmmm……lotto 380s anyone?
Please tell me one of you degenerates took this I posted last night.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I bought SQQQ and SPXS just after the open. Sell targets set at $55.60 and $23.30. Stops at $50.95 and $21.90. Now to close turn off this screen and do other work. Come on Model T.
$30,000 Millionaire said:wanderer said:
Because people like Spilner are posting gifs like that above and all over Twitter?
Ding ding ding.
I was giong to go with RSI high, hitting the descending trendline on the weekly, and the opening volume bars on /ES all being over the 25K threshold so far (John Carter rule).
Guess the memes have it though.
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RSI says this is where it'll reverse back up if it's gonna.
OA thinking 400+ may be in the cards...
I held firm on my rally expectation and mid range $SPY calls being in the money is sweetness. Good day to place hedges at the open, although my thinking is we break that $390.50 area resistance and surprise most traders with a move closer to $403 area.
— Freedom Costs More Than Being Concerned... (@oldarmy1) November 10, 2022
Last CPI we dropped during pre market and ended the day green. Not saying there's any chance we end the day red today but where would you see the next support be?
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Bob Knights Paper Hands said:
I bought SQQQ and SPXS just after the open. Sell targets set at $55.60 and $23.30. Stops at $50.95 and $21.90. Now to close turn off this screen and do other work. Come on Model T.
I moved my stops up to just over my costs now. I won't lose money on this trade. Turning this monitor off to do other work.
Was shorting UPRO pre-market and in at an average of 34.65. Will buy back if it gets above today's high of 35.15ish
Gap on the VIX down at 21.27. Watching this area to go buy VIX calls.
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Stops = good.
I bought some SPX3885P for $10. Manual stop of SPX confirms over 3912. Target sell at $25/contract.
I bought some SPX3885P for $10. Manual stop of SPX confirms over 3912. Target sell at $25/contract.
QQQ appears to have stopped at the 50 day moving average just below 279. Not seeing a huge dump off yet, though.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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My intraday 20sma (5-min interval) is just touching the model T so far at $271. It still looks bullish as it's bouncing off the intraday 10sma, but a push back close to the midpoint wouldn't surprise me.
wish I had held something overnight. Nope. Crazy move, and regardless of RSI etc. I think OA may end up right. Can't stop, won't stop until 400.FJ43 said:FJ43 said:
Hmmmm……lotto 380s anyone?
Please tell me one of you degenerates took this I posted last night.
I agree. But the longer we hold up without major dumping, the more likely it becomes we may continue up for a bit.Bob Knights Paper Hands said:
My intraday 20sma (5-min interval) is just touching the model T so far at $271. It still looks bullish as it's bouncing off the intraday 10sma, but a push back close to the midpoint wouldn't surprise me.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Yep. This SPX 100-day has really been a bear to get through. Pun not clever nor funny, but intended.
Digital ad darlings of old (MGNI, APPS) are both up 50%+ this morn.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I made $80 out of that trade and could have taken $4k. I thought we'd have a big push down, even if it was a quick pop and the reverse up. Oh well, on to the next trade. Maybe we get a false breakout over 3912 soon? Or another real breakout over that? I think I'm too skittish to open any new calls up here.
These worked out well for a much different reason that what I was expecting! Sold half to go net free, then sold a bit more to grab some cash off the table, and letting the rest run for a bit. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good...BT1395 said:I took some 91c for 11/18 expiry to see if we get an election wave I can ride. Missed the bottom earlier today thanks to life getting in the way, but I think these will work out nicely until a broader pullback to even lower lows.perma Brew doomster said:
AMZN calls flying. I went 91C friday exp, but next week is lower risk though.
+$17k on the day thus far.
Anyone gonna listen to the Lambos for Texags….. errrr… WWR earnings call?
My sob story for the day. Was holding MGNI 7.50 calls for dec. they stopped out when it dropped 7% yesterday for a loss. Would be up huge today.
And I held my 8.5 MARA puts thinking with bitcoin crash would be good today. Double whammy.
And I held my 8.5 MARA puts thinking with bitcoin crash would be good today. Double whammy.
You may actually get green on all of it in the next few weeks.Brian Earl Spilner said:
+$17k on the day thus far.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Good job on your XOM Calls. It's all you. You just took information and made money. It's all your decisions allowing you to succeed.Bird Poo said:I didn't trade during previous recessions due to my financial situation, but when energy inevitably spikes in the coming weeks/months and unemployment numbers start to climb, are you predicting we won't get to 3400? (I know you're not a fortune teller, but just curious if you are accounting for the coming recession everyone seems so confident will hit).Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
UPDATING October 10th post above:
The Mid-Term Election Year Buying Opportunity that I noted has occurred for the last 60 years (except twice in the cycle) I thought would occur in 2022 down to a S&P 3,400 level. I am stating 3,400 is not going to happen in 2022 and the market low is in. ............ The June 16th Closing Low of 3,666.77 and then the retests of that low on Sep 30th of 3585.62, the Oct 11th 3,588.84, the Oct 12th 3,577.03 and Oct 14th 3,583.07, all on a Closing basis have established the floor IMO. IMO, I believe any re-visit to the 3,575 to 3,675 area is a buying opportunity. With 3,400 no longer in my picture, it directs me to change the challenging of the S&P 500 ATH to the second half of 2023 versus "by June 2023" as noted in the post above.
BTW, your XOM 110 calls made me about $3K a couple weeks ago!
We aren't having a coming recession, we're in it, by way of 2 negative quarters in the GDP. Now, I don't know if the NBER, National Bureau of Economic Research has officially declared a recession, but they're usually months behind. That's the body that officially stamps these events. Doesn't matter, we are in a recession.
I do not see a shot at S&P 500 of 3,400 in 2022. The low is in.
As for 2023, I don't see 3,400. If you reread the post I updated from 10/10, today's CPI would not have been a surprise (if it was a surprise for you). The Oct '21 CPI value of 0.9% rolled off and was replaced. As the previous 2021 lower numbers got replaced the CPI improves especially now when the higher 2021 numbers start to come off and we are there......because it's a YoY calculation. Month to Month doesn't mean squat. Therefore, next month will improve too. It's all math.. Okay, to temper any cockiness, one does have to be aware of "other math" such as gasoline price. There could be an influence in the coming 3 months where energy would more than offset the rolling off months of CPI and actually show a worsening in the economy. Just be aware.
With the above said, the CPI should start to show improvement moving forward. Again the annualized rate shows high, but the 6 month annualized rate is getting closer to 2%. I believe the 3 month annualized rate is 2%, I'll need to recheck. That means J Powell can hike the rate again or decrease the hike BUT continue the hikes at a slower pace and with lower rates of increase. Powell has already tempered the housing market. The NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 8 points in October to a 38, lowest since August 2012 (excluding the pandemic onset). Readings above 50 indicate favorable single-family home builder sentiment. Lot's of components in this Index, mostly lower. And, 7% mortgage rate doesn't inspire buyers and slowing housing sales market does not motivate sellers.
Powell's only real lever is labor. I posted in July or August about layoffs that were starting and I have watching carefully. There's 1.7 jobs available per every 1.0 job seeker. The amount of jobs available will shrink by way of more folks seeking employment for existing jobs and many companies will pull job listings to avoid laying off, if possible. Jobs will shrink and RIF's have been going on since June'22. The pace and press coverage has just been stepped up to make more people notice.
You might be thinking, the above reads like a "soft landing", and to some degree it is. A soft landing for Powell and this economy is no easy task and one slight hiccup and it crashes or over heats. Considering Powell waited too long to raise rates, he is doing an effective job today. I believe Powell succeeds with a soft landing. Energy is going to allow him to slow the economy.(I've been preaching this for a long time as energy could have slowed the economy all by itself had it not been for Green Energy ideology interfering). The largest difference in this recession verses past, the energy sector had been keeping up with capex spending so they could ramp up production at a moment's notice to bring energy prices under control. Capex spending has not been present for 3 years, worldwide, and this Administration's continuing negative comments about fossil fuels only directs O&G companies to reduce capex spending going forward - there is zero incentive. I'm bullish energy for a long time. Brandon is the best thing that's happened to O&G in a long time. <-All this is why I note above to be aware of the energy component to the CPI.
Moving on, end of Nov we should see some tax harvest. We'll get a diluted Christmas rally. Folks are scared about the economy and holding money so retail sales will be slowed. Burn rate on Covid savings has slowed and principle amounts have been reduced considerably. Credit card debt, through the roof(remember each rate hike drives cc interest rates up). I believe the dollar's strength will be easing. China will eventually reopen. The EU has energy problems for the next 2 years. We manage over the Dec/Apr time period with chop and growth picking up May forward.
I hope this helps.
forget 3920, they act like they are going to run it to 3950 today. 3920 should be strong resistance (Mancini's words).
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It will be interesting to see if QQQ and SPX bounce again at close to the same place on 1-min and 5-min RSI, near the bottom of the bull demand zone.
perma Brew doomster said:You may actually get green on all of it in the next few weeks.Brian Earl Spilner said:
+$17k on the day thus far.
Hopefully so. Overall portfolio is only -1.65%, but still a ways to for my TQQQ/UPRO positions.
you checked in on your friend?BaylorSpineGuy said:
My friend's script is holding perfectly. He's calling for the several day red waterfall like we saw June 9-13. Thinks 3400 from here. I'm gonna load up more OTM puts at the open.
Let's get it.
It has just kissed the trendline I'm watching. Now for the downturn......maybe.Spoony Love said:
I'm not saying it's going to, but SPY has trendline that would get back to almost 391. It has rejected this trendline three times in the last 3 months.
My call would be trendline touch or close to it, and backfill the gap today
Although, I may have just cursed it. That would figure
Diggity said:you checked in on your friend?BaylorSpineGuy said:
My friend's script is holding perfectly. He's calling for the several day red waterfall like we saw June 9-13. Thinks 3400 from here. I'm gonna load up more OTM puts at the open.
Let's get it.
Lol he made $156K yesterday and was happy as a pig in $ hit.
Today, he messaged me and told me he is never gonna day trade again! Hahaha. I told him he should've bought straddles! Lol
what interval are you looking at? daily?
daily I switch between 5 (if I'm trading) and 15. Occasionally sneak a peek at the 1 if I'm watching for a quick scalp.
Waiting to hit the ejector seat
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