wanderer said:

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Because people like Spilner are posting gifs like that above and all over Twitter?

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Ding ding ding.

Little passive agressive but ok.

+$17k on the day thus far.

Anyone gonna listen to the Lambos for Texags….. errrr… WWR earnings call?

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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+$17k on the day thus far.

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You may actually get green on all of it in the next few weeks.

Bird Poo said:

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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UPDATING October 10th post above:

The Mid-Term Election Year Buying Opportunity that I noted has occurred for the last 60 years (except twice in the cycle) I thought would occur in 2022 down to a S&P 3,400 level. I am stating 3,400 is not going to happen in 2022 and the market low is in. ............ The June 16th Closing Low of 3,666.77 and then the retests of that low on Sep 30th of 3585.62, the Oct 11th 3,588.84, the Oct 12th 3,577.03 and Oct 14th 3,583.07, all on a Closing basis have established the floor IMO. IMO, I believe any re-visit to the 3,575 to 3,675 area is a buying opportunity. With 3,400 no longer in my picture, it directs me to change the challenging of the S&P 500 ATH to the second half of 2023 versus "by June 2023" as noted in the post above.

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I didn't trade during previous recessions due to my financial situation, but when energy inevitably spikes in the coming weeks/months and unemployment numbers start to climb, are you predicting we won't get to 3400? (I know you're not a fortune teller, but just curious if you are accounting for the coming recession everyone seems so confident will hit).

BTW, your XOM 110 calls made me about $3K a couple weeks ago!

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Good job on your XOM Calls. It's all you. You just took information and made money. It's all your decisions allowing you to succeed.

We aren't having a coming recession, we're in it, by way of 2 negative quarters in the GDP. Now, I don't know if the NBER, National Bureau of Economic Research has officially declared a recession, but they're usually months behind. That's the body that officially stamps these events. Doesn't matter, we are in a recession.

I do not see a shot at S&P 500 of 3,400 in 2022. The low is in.

As for 2023, I don't see 3,400. If you reread the post I updated from 10/10, today's CPI would not have been a surprise (if it was a surprise for you). The Oct '21 CPI value of 0.9% rolled off and was replaced. As the previous 2021 lower numbers got replaced the CPI improves especially now when the higher 2021 numbers start to come off and we are there......because it's a YoY calculation. Month to Month doesn't mean squat. Therefore, next month will improve too. It's all math.. Okay, to temper any cockiness, one does have to be aware of "other math" such as gasoline price. There could be an influence in the coming 3 months where energy would more than offset the rolling off months of CPI and actually show a worsening in the economy. Just be aware.

With the above said, the CPI should start to show improvement moving forward. Again the annualized rate shows high, but the 6 month annualized rate is getting closer to 2%. I believe the 3 month annualized rate is 2%, I'll need to recheck. That means J Powell can hike the rate again or decrease the hike BUT continue the hikes at a slower pace and with lower rates of increase. Powell has already tempered the housing market. The NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 8 points in October to a 38, lowest since August 2012 (excluding the pandemic onset). Readings above 50 indicate favorable single-family home builder sentiment. Lot's of components in this Index, mostly lower. And, 7% mortgage rate doesn't inspire buyers and slowing housing sales market does not motivate sellers.

Powell's only real lever is labor. I posted in July or August about layoffs that were starting and I have watching carefully. There's 1.7 jobs available per every 1.0 job seeker. The amount of jobs available will shrink by way of more folks seeking employment for existing jobs and many companies will pull job listings to avoid laying off, if possible. Jobs will shrink and RIF's have been going on since June'22. The pace and press coverage has just been stepped up to make more people notice.

You might be thinking, the above reads like a "soft landing", and to some degree it is. A soft landing for Powell and this economy is no easy task and one slight hiccup and it crashes or over heats. Considering Powell waited too long to raise rates, he is doing an effective job today. I believe Powell succeeds with a soft landing. Energy is going to allow him to slow the economy.(I've been preaching this for a long time as energy could have slowed the economy all by itself had it not been for Green Energy ideology interfering). The largest difference in this recession verses past, the energy sector had been keeping up with capex spending so they could ramp up production at a moment's notice to bring energy prices under control. Capex spending has not been present for 3 years, worldwide, and this Administration's continuing negative comments about fossil fuels only directs O&G companies to reduce capex spending going forward - there is zero incentive. I'm bullish energy for a long time. Brandon is the best thing that's happened to O&G in a long time. <-All this is why I note above to be aware of the energy component to the CPI.

Moving on, end of Nov we should see some tax harvest. We'll get a diluted Christmas rally. Folks are scared about the economy and holding money so retail sales will be slowed. Burn rate on Covid savings has slowed and principle amounts have been reduced considerably. Credit card debt, through the roof(remember each rate hike drives cc interest rates up). I believe the dollar's strength will be easing. China will eventually reopen. The EU has energy problems for the next 2 years. We manage over the Dec/Apr time period with chop and growth picking up May forward.

I hope this helps.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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My friend's script is holding perfectly. He's calling for the several day red waterfall like we saw June 9-13. Thinks 3400 from here. I'm gonna load up more OTM puts at the open.

Let's get it.

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you checked in on your friend?

Diggity said:

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BaylorSpineGuy said:

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My friend's script is holding perfectly. He's calling for the several day red waterfall like we saw June 9-13. Thinks 3400 from here. I'm gonna load up more OTM puts at the open.

Let's get it.

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you checked in on your friend?

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Lol he made $156K yesterday and was happy as a pig in $ hit.

Today, he messaged me and told me he is never gonna day trade again! Hahaha. I told him he should've bought straddles! Lol

Waiting to hit the ejector seat