BREwmaster said:

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Golf1 said:

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Is Powell going to shoot SPY back down to 380 or do we see 395 after he speaks?

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not trading advice, but usually fade the opening move and you make $. I played a couple puts a week out on the opening spike. Then once JPow got into the meat of his talk, TLT started dumping and SPY quickly followed.

hopefully those in XOM calls took profits!

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I actually successfully traded my first strangle fading the first move. Was a little anxious at first because the market wasn't doing anything till Powell spoke.

This is why you stay away on fed day.

Dems are donesky

Hold on to your butts my friends....

The forecasted 10YR UST yield is expected to hit 5% in March of 2023 and hit 5.70% by May of 2023.

Needless to say, that means 8-9% interest rates. Things are slowwwwwwwwwwing down pretty quick in the RE markets and not just residential.

http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-states/10-years/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%2010%20Years,%3A15%20GMT%2B0).

This is just a shoot from the hip opinion, but as long as diesel is $5.00/gal+ (now close to $2/gal more than unleaded in some places), inflation isn't going to slow down a whole heck of a lot.

Saltyag15 said:

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This is just a shoot from the hip opinion, but as long as diesel is $5.00/gal+ (now close to $2/gal more than unleaded in some places), inflation isn't going to slow down a whole heck of a lot.

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If Powell got out of the way with his rate hikes and Brandon never released any crude from the SPR, fuel prices would have escalated to a point of slowing the U.S. economy all by itself months ago. No rate hikes needed and no crude needed to come out of the SPR.

Brandon's Administration will destroy this current economy one way or another if successful in the Mid-Terms. Wave Red is the only thing to stop it. It's like a National Sherman's March to the Sea playing out before our eyes and Brandon is leading the charge. Oh well,...haircut time. See y'all.

Red Pear BCS Luke said:

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Hold on to your butts my friends....

The forecasted 10YR UST yield is expected to hit 5% in March of 2023 and hit 5.70% by May of 2023.

Needless to say, that means 8-9% interest rates. Things are slowwwwwwwwwwing down pretty quick in the RE markets and not just residential.

http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-states/10-years/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%2010%20Years,%3A15%20GMT%2B0).

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This would be catastrophic to the real estate sector... like 40-50% drops in asset values off their highs.

I mean...things could be worse:

Sep 22 - Venezuela: Central Bank cut interest rate to 56.99% (-0.64)


Central Bank Rate
Argentina
75.00 % +550 bp

Red Pear BCS Luke said:

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Hold on to your butts my friends....

The forecasted 10YR UST yield is expected to hit 5% in March of 2023 and hit 5.70% by May of 2023.

Needless to say, that means 8-9% interest rates. Things are slowwwwwwwwwwing down pretty quick in the RE markets and not just residential.

http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-states/10-years/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%2010%20Years,%3A15%20GMT%2B0).

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Gabe picked the wrong time to leave TA to get into real estate.

Powell figures if everyone looks at their 401K, they will stop buying stuff.

I'm sure we leak down, but Oct CPI comes in Nov 10th, last CPI Oct 10th kicked off rally.

vette said:

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Red Pear BCS Luke said:

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Hold on to your butts my friends....

The forecasted 10YR UST yield is expected to hit 5% in March of 2023 and hit 5.70% by May of 2023.

Needless to say, that means 8-9% interest rates. Things are slowwwwwwwwwwing down pretty quick in the RE markets and not just residential.

http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-states/10-years/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%2010%20Years,%3A15%20GMT%2B0).

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This would be catastrophic to the real estate sector... like 40-50% drops in asset values off their highs.

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Gone are the days of deals being valued on a 4-5% cap rate.

Roku is getting prison shower raped AH.

ProgN said:

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Red Pear BCS Luke said:

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Hold on to your butts my friends....

The forecasted 10YR UST yield is expected to hit 5% in March of 2023 and hit 5.70% by May of 2023.

Needless to say, that means 8-9% interest rates. Things are slowwwwwwwwwwing down pretty quick in the RE markets and not just residential.

http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-states/10-years/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%2010%20Years,%3A15%20GMT%2B0).

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Gabe picked the wrong time to leave TA to get into real estate.

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I feel this on a personal level as well.

Didn't I exactly call this like 2 weeks ago?!?

Gonna give myself some credit here. Been saying for a while that Europe will flip and capitulate to Russia. France and Italy have and here come the Germans. Careful now! A sympathetic Germany to an invasion of a sovereign country.

On a positive note, seems Walter Bloomberg is back!

ERDOGAN: GERMANY'S SCHOLZ HAS CHANGED STANCE, SAYS WE SHOULD FIND COMMON GROUND WITH PUTIN

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 2, 2022

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Didn't I exactly call this like 2 weeks ago?!?

Gonna give myself some credit here. Been saying for a while that Europe will flip and capitulate to Russia. France and Italy have and here come the Germans. Careful now! A sympathetic Germany to an invasion of a sovereign country.

On a positive note, seems Walter Bloomberg is back!

ERDOGAN: GERMANY'S SCHOLZ HAS CHANGED STANCE, SAYS WE SHOULD FIND COMMON GROUND WITH PUTIN

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 2, 2022

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That's why the Nord Stream pipelines were blown up, you can't trust Germany. Keep Russia on the ropes.

VIX isn't going to hit the high point till the SPR drain is stopped. Then heads up

Red Pear BCS Luke said:

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Hold on to your butts my friends....

The forecasted 10YR UST yield is expected to hit 5% in March of 2023 and hit 5.70% by May of 2023.

Needless to say, that means 8-9% interest rates. Things are slowwwwwwwwwwing down pretty quick in the RE markets and not just residential.

http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-states/10-years/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%2010%20Years,%3A15%20GMT%2B0).

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Did you read their little disclaimer? That forecast is based on a trend following algorithm so of course it's going to keep following the upward trend. The 10Y may very well hit 5% in the first half of 2023 (though I personally don't think it will), but there's no way in hell it's hitting their forecasted 6.8% in December 2023.

The market controls long term yields, not the fed. You have to look at the full yield curve. The yield curve is already incredibly inverted because the market knows short term rate hikes are going to slow the economy. The 3-month bill yields 4 bps more than the 10-year note and the 1-year bill yield is 60 bps higher than the 30-year note. That right there tells me the fed isn't capable of raising short term rates enough to push the 10-year another 270 bps in the next 13-months (to the December forecasted number in the link above).

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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This is why you stay away on fed day.

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but fading the opening move once FOMC starts, pays 9 times out of 10. Okay, maybe it's 8 out of 10. It is a high high number. I didn't play 0dte's, but I played out a week, puts after that big green missile at 387+. I didn't hold for a full move down, took nice profits pretty quick, should've kept 1 runner!

it's a small play, risky, but has been really hitting lately.

Bonfire1996 said:

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VIX isn't going to hit the high point till the SPR drain is stopped. Then heads up

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still bullish on real estate for 2022/23? the talk above this post had me thinking about it. but it only makes sense that they can't keep rates high for long.

To follow on to my previous post, every single time the 3-mo yield is greater than the 10-year yield there is a recession shortly thereafter and nothing kills the inflation boogeyman like a recession.

The FRED data I am looking at only goes back to 1982, but look at the chart linked below. This part of the curve first inverted October 18 and again October 25th, just last week. As you can see, there's always a few months lag before the technical recession starts so I am not going to market time, but I would be prepared over the next 6 months. If/when the 10-year gets to mid-4s I would load up because you can lock in a nice risk free return while the market continues to tank and take advantage of capital appreciation as bond yields start dropping (prices increasing) long before the equity market bottoms.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M

FTAco07 said:

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Red Pear BCS Luke said:

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Hold on to your butts my friends....

The forecasted 10YR UST yield is expected to hit 5% in March of 2023 and hit 5.70% by May of 2023.

Needless to say, that means 8-9% interest rates. Things are slowwwwwwwwwwing down pretty quick in the RE markets and not just residential.

http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-states/10-years/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%2010%20Years,%3A15%20GMT%2B0).

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Did you read their little disclaimer? That forecast is based on a trend following algorithm so of course it's going to keep following the upward trend. The 10Y may very well hit 5% in the first half of 2023 (though I personally don't think it will), but there's no way in hell it's hitting their forecasted 6.8% in December 2023.

The market controls long term yields, not the fed. You have to look at the full yield curve. The yield curve is already incredibly inverted because the market knows short term rate hikes are going to slow the economy. The 3-month bill yields 4 bps more than the 10-year note and the 1-year bill yield is 60 bps higher than the 30-year note. That right there tells me the fed isn't capable of raising short term rates enough to push the 10-year another 270 bps in the next 13-months (to the December forecasted number in the link above).

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I absolutely agree with you. It's just algos following the trend.

I thought the correlation between the 2YR and the 10YR widening to 52bps vs it bouncing closer to 40bps before this meeting was interesting.

this doesn't look like a trend worth buying into