Went ahead and closed out a percentage of UVXY in the upper $9's. Nice little swing trade.
I actually successfully traded my first strangle fading the first move. Was a little anxious at first because the market wasn't doing anything till Powell spoke.BREwmaster said:not trading advice, but usually fade the opening move and you make $. I played a couple puts a week out on the opening spike. Then once JPow got into the meat of his talk, TLT started dumping and SPY quickly followed.Golf1 said:
Is Powell going to shoot SPY back down to 380 or do we see 395 after he speaks?
hopefully those in XOM calls took profits!
NMirish pete ag06 said:
LABU continues to show relative strength...
I took profits on half around 112 and all remaining I took off, right before FOMC. I didn't like the markets ripping upward right before minutes. Would love the markets to bounce here soon though and maybe play XOM again!Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Did you keep those next week $114's?
If Powell got out of the way with his rate hikes and Brandon never released any crude from the SPR, fuel prices would have escalated to a point of slowing the U.S. economy all by itself months ago. No rate hikes needed and no crude needed to come out of the SPR.Saltyag15 said:
This is just a shoot from the hip opinion, but as long as diesel is $5.00/gal+ (now close to $2/gal more than unleaded in some places), inflation isn't going to slow down a whole heck of a lot.
This would be catastrophic to the real estate sector... like 40-50% drops in asset values off their highs.Red Pear BCS Luke said:
Hold on to your butts my friends....
The forecasted 10YR UST yield is expected to hit 5% in March of 2023 and hit 5.70% by May of 2023.
Needless to say, that means 8-9% interest rates. Things are slowwwwwwwwwwing down pretty quick in the RE markets and not just residential.
http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-states/10-years/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%2010%20Years,%3A15%20GMT%2B0).
Gabe picked the wrong time to leave TA to get into real estate.Red Pear BCS Luke said:
Hold on to your butts my friends....
The forecasted 10YR UST yield is expected to hit 5% in March of 2023 and hit 5.70% by May of 2023.
Needless to say, that means 8-9% interest rates. Things are slowwwwwwwwwwing down pretty quick in the RE markets and not just residential.
http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-states/10-years/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%2010%20Years,%3A15%20GMT%2B0).
Gone are the days of deals being valued on a 4-5% cap rate.vette said:This would be catastrophic to the real estate sector... like 40-50% drops in asset values off their highs.Red Pear BCS Luke said:
Hold on to your butts my friends....
The forecasted 10YR UST yield is expected to hit 5% in March of 2023 and hit 5.70% by May of 2023.
Needless to say, that means 8-9% interest rates. Things are slowwwwwwwwwwing down pretty quick in the RE markets and not just residential.
http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-states/10-years/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%2010%20Years,%3A15%20GMT%2B0).
I feel this on a personal level as well.ProgN said:Gabe picked the wrong time to leave TA to get into real estate.Red Pear BCS Luke said:
Hold on to your butts my friends....
The forecasted 10YR UST yield is expected to hit 5% in March of 2023 and hit 5.70% by May of 2023.
Needless to say, that means 8-9% interest rates. Things are slowwwwwwwwwwing down pretty quick in the RE markets and not just residential.
http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-states/10-years/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%2010%20Years,%3A15%20GMT%2B0).
Red Pear BCS Luke said:
Hold on to your butts my friends....
The forecasted 10YR UST yield is expected to hit 5% in March of 2023 and hit 5.70% by May of 2023.
Needless to say, that means 8-9% interest rates. Things are slowwwwwwwwwwing down pretty quick in the RE markets and not just residential.
http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-states/10-years/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%2010%20Years,%3A15%20GMT%2B0).
did Airbnb just report after hours or earlier in the day?ProgN said:
Roku is getting prison shower raped AH.
ERDOGAN: GERMANY'S SCHOLZ HAS CHANGED STANCE, SAYS WE SHOULD FIND COMMON GROUND WITH PUTIN
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 2, 2022
That's why the Nord Stream pipelines were blown up, you can't trust Germany. Keep Russia on the ropes.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Didn't I exactly call this like 2 weeks ago?!?
Gonna give myself some credit here. Been saying for a while that Europe will flip and capitulate to Russia. France and Italy have and here come the Germans. Careful now! A sympathetic Germany to an invasion of a sovereign country.
On a positive note, seems Walter Bloomberg is back!ERDOGAN: GERMANY'S SCHOLZ HAS CHANGED STANCE, SAYS WE SHOULD FIND COMMON GROUND WITH PUTIN
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 2, 2022
$RIG - Transocean Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.06 beats by $0.12, revenue of $730M beats by $64.91M https://t.co/TlzdG2P4GB
— Breaking News (@MarketCurrents) November 2, 2022
Quote:
CEO comment:
"The robust demand for our assets and services helped us secure an incremental $1.6 billion since our July 25 Fleet Status Report, contributing to our already industry-leading backlog. We remain encouraged by the sustained strength in the offshore drilling market globally and expect demand for the increasingly scarce high-capability drilling rigs Transocean owns and operates to remain strong for the foreseeable future, resulting in higher utilization and dayrates."
Did you read their little disclaimer? That forecast is based on a trend following algorithm so of course it's going to keep following the upward trend. The 10Y may very well hit 5% in the first half of 2023 (though I personally don't think it will), but there's no way in hell it's hitting their forecasted 6.8% in December 2023.Red Pear BCS Luke said:
Hold on to your butts my friends....
The forecasted 10YR UST yield is expected to hit 5% in March of 2023 and hit 5.70% by May of 2023.
Needless to say, that means 8-9% interest rates. Things are slowwwwwwwwwwing down pretty quick in the RE markets and not just residential.
http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-states/10-years/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%2010%20Years,%3A15%20GMT%2B0).
but fading the opening move once FOMC starts, pays 9 times out of 10. Okay, maybe it's 8 out of 10. It is a high high number. I didn't play 0dte's, but I played out a week, puts after that big green missile at 387+. I didn't hold for a full move down, took nice profits pretty quick, should've kept 1 runner!$30,000 Millionaire said:
This is why you stay away on fed day.
still bullish on real estate for 2022/23? the talk above this post had me thinking about it. but it only makes sense that they can't keep rates high for long.Bonfire1996 said:
VIX isn't going to hit the high point till the SPR drain is stopped. Then heads up
FTAco07 said:Did you read their little disclaimer? That forecast is based on a trend following algorithm so of course it's going to keep following the upward trend. The 10Y may very well hit 5% in the first half of 2023 (though I personally don't think it will), but there's no way in hell it's hitting their forecasted 6.8% in December 2023.Red Pear BCS Luke said:
Hold on to your butts my friends....
The forecasted 10YR UST yield is expected to hit 5% in March of 2023 and hit 5.70% by May of 2023.
Needless to say, that means 8-9% interest rates. Things are slowwwwwwwwwwing down pretty quick in the RE markets and not just residential.
http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-states/10-years/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%2010%20Years,%3A15%20GMT%2B0).
The market controls long term yields, not the fed. You have to look at the full yield curve. The yield curve is already incredibly inverted because the market knows short term rate hikes are going to slow the economy. The 3-month bill yields 4 bps more than the 10-year note and the 1-year bill yield is 60 bps higher than the 30-year note. That right there tells me the fed isn't capable of raising short term rates enough to push the 10-year another 270 bps in the next 13-months (to the December forecasted number in the link above).
FTAco07 said:
The market controls long term yields, not the fed.