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24,629,512 Views | 233273 Replies | Last: 5 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
wanderer
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Still own ENVX? (I do)

It dumped on bad earnings this morn.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Today SKEW index hit 111.44, tying 1/4/2019 for the lowest point it has been over the last 5 years. That's saying the derivative of implied volatility is the flattest it's been. This implies there's the lowest risk of major dump that we've seen in 5 years.

That makes zero sense to me with FOMC coming up today. Maybe all it means is big money hedged for today a long time ago and haven't changed large OTM positions throughout Oct?
Spoony Love
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Fade the first move?
$30,000 Millionaire
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wanderer said:

Still own ENVX? (I do)

It dumped on bad earnings this morn.


Yes and ugh.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Excessive action IMO. They're pre production.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Mr07Ag
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I've got some 11/18 WTI calls, trying to decide if I should hold through earnings or not. If the news is good I might just take my profit now and run.
sts7049
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Brewmaster
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bought XOM 114C's next week, on this dip.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I made two SPX 0Dte call trades on revision to the mean. 1 win, 1 loss. Net I'm up $22 after commission and fees.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Mr07Ag said:

I've got some 11/18 WTI calls, trying to decide if I should hold through earnings or not. If the news is good I might just take my profit now and run.
You bought WTI or XOM?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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BREwmaster said:

bought XOM 114C's next week, on this dip.

Good move.

ETA @ 9:35amCST: XOM runs to Earnings, runs to Ex-Div, runs to Payout and runs just after Payout. 11/14 is Ex-Div Date. Gotta buy XOM on 11/13 if you want the Div. BREwmaster, you'll see appreciation.
irish pete ag06
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Love this setup... I followed
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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.75 was priced-in, correct? (yeah, I'm being a jack-wagon) LOL! If I had a dime for every time that was said or written. I'm not in the camp of "priced-in" on anything. Just the way I roll.
Ag CPA
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Yah, my biggest takeaway from this year is that things that people say are priced in really aren't priced in.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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XOM:
Trading volume, 3.53 million vs 65 Day Average of 19.52 and down -$1.30 at 9:53amCST. Light volume....will not be surprised to see this flip green.

DOE/EIA:
EIA showing a 3.1mb draw. Had Brandon not dumped 1.9mb from the SPR, the draw is 5mb. Yeah, been sayin' and will continue sayin'....we're short crude. Buckle up. WTI,....LOL!....still under price suppression.

Quote:

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 436.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels from last week and are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased, but blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels last week and are about 19% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels from last week and are 4% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels last week."
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Golf1
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Glad I saw your post on the dip. I ended up buying nov 25 112c and up a quick 8%.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Ag CPA said:

Yah, my biggest takeaway from this year is that things that people say are priced in really aren't priced in.
Age 24, one of my first trades in Corn Futures. I positioned based on information that was "priced-in" and I got murdered. Never relied on that phrase again and was all the better off for the rest of my life. JMHO.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Just curious regarding that 6 month comment,....what interest rate is the market pricing in today for 6 months out?
Wannabud
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Just curious regarding that 6 month comment,....what interest rate is the market pricing in today for 6 months out?
5-5.25% by March is the highest odds. (75 Nov, 50 Dec, 25 Feb/Mar)
4.75-5% is the next highest. (75 Nov, 50 Dec, 25 Feb OR 75 Nov + 75 Dec and done)
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Thanks!
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Got it. Thank you.
Mr07Ag
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WTI - $6/$7/$11 all 11/18 calls

XOM - $112 11/4 calls
Heineken-Ashi
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The bond market has been acting all week like 4% yield will be where we hang for a while.

But the market did the same thing last time and was "surprised" after the media gaslighted the world about "peak inflation" and "FED pause". Then it spiked well over it's target.

My guess would be FFTR by end of year to 4.50-4.75.

Hard to tell what's actually in store. Don't guess. Not unless you're willing to have VERY tight stops and not be mad if you get caught in the chop despite a correct call.

Personally, I'm shorting the Euro today with a tight stop above. For those that don't do correlations, that means I'm bearish on the Euro and bullish on the dollar which means I'm expecting 75bps and guidance towards AT LEAST continued hawkish sentiment (perhaps not expanded hawking, but definitely not less hawkish). That means I'm bearish on TLT short term and bullish on treasury yields. As far as markets and equities go, how they react is based on a wider array of market forces and a conglomeration of conflicting opinions, not to mention individual company balance sheets, continued earnings reports, and end of year shenanigans mixed with election shenanigans mixed with seasonality. So I will continue to trade the beer candles when they provide confirmed setups.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Mr07Ag said:

WTI - $6/$7/$11 all 11/18 calls

XOM - $112 11/4 calls
I don't follow WTI stock only WTI crude, but looks like WTI stock is doing well this morning! .... Maybe a bird in hand, no? Can't go broke taking a profit.

XOM's you'll do fine. If you roll to next week, you'll likely do "finer".

JMO
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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BREwmaster said:

bought XOM 114C's next week, on this dip.

Trimmed 1/3 here at up 50%.

Edit: Great Call Brew!
Just Tired
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Ag CPA said:

Yah, my biggest takeaway from this year is that things that people say are priced in really aren't priced in.
at best i look at "priced-in" like the line on a football game... a&m 18-pt favorites over app-st? okay, we'll see.
sts7049
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Saltyag15
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GOOGL sub-$90. Wow. Someone called this last week or the week before (that there would be a buying opportunity below $90)
Brewmaster
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BREwmaster said:

bought XOM 114C's next week, on this dip.



112 should have some resistance, can take some profits there or set stops higher
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

I'm pretty sure GOOGL will be available at sub $90 with earnings drift. As the top cat noted, "Times like this are clarifying," CEO Sundar Pichai declared, adding that Google is pushing to become more efficient "by realigning resources to invest in our biggest growth opportunities" and that "Q4 [employee] headcount additions will be significantly lower than Q3."

"Times like this are clarifying" - now that is real killer CEO speak. I love it. Elon Musk should use this phrase regarding Twitter and the 75% RIF.


I'm eyeing for purchase..
BenRev09
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gap at 84?
Whirligigs
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Saltyag15 said:

GOOGL sub-$90. Wow. Someone called this last week or the week before (that there would be a buying opportunity below $90)


Didn't it IPO in the 80s?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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BenRev09 said:

gap at 84?
Yep, I'm not in a hurry on this one. I think we see more decay. I'll gladly miss the bottom if I can at least manage a good entry.
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