Still own ENVX? (I do)
It dumped on bad earnings this morn.
It dumped on bad earnings this morn.
Stock Markets
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Last: 38 min ago by El_duderino
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Today SKEW index hit 111.44, tying 1/4/2019 for the lowest point it has been over the last 5 years. That's saying the derivative of implied volatility is the flattest it's been. This implies there's the lowest risk of major dump that we've seen in 5 years.
That makes zero sense to me with FOMC coming up today. Maybe all it means is big money hedged for today a long time ago and haven't changed large OTM positions throughout Oct?
That makes zero sense to me with FOMC coming up today. Maybe all it means is big money hedged for today a long time ago and haven't changed large OTM positions throughout Oct?
Fade the first move?
wanderer said:
Still own ENVX? (I do)
It dumped on bad earnings this morn.
Yes and ugh.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Excessive action IMO. They're pre production.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I've got some 11/18 WTI calls, trying to decide if I should hold through earnings or not. If the news is good I might just take my profit now and run.
Action in #ES_F until 2pm today is largely noise. 3850-55 has been my key support for two days and hovering under the zone now. Will be key bulls see no lower than 3825 on any down spikes or we begin sharp sell to below targets
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) November 2, 2022
Bulls want >3855 now to start push to 3875, 3900+ https://t.co/wvuADSF5Rd
bought XOM 114C's next week, on this dip.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I made two SPX 0Dte call trades on revision to the mean. 1 win, 1 loss. Net I'm up $22 after commission and fees.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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You bought WTI or XOM?Mr07Ag said:
I've got some 11/18 WTI calls, trying to decide if I should hold through earnings or not. If the news is good I might just take my profit now and run.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Good move.BREwmaster said:
bought XOM 114C's next week, on this dip.
ETA @ 9:35amCST: XOM runs to Earnings, runs to Ex-Div, runs to Payout and runs just after Payout. 11/14 is Ex-Div Date. Gotta buy XOM on 11/13 if you want the Div. BREwmaster, you'll see appreciation.
Love this setup... I followed
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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.75 was priced-in, correct? (yeah, I'm being a jack-wagon) LOL! If I had a dime for every time that was said or written. I'm not in the camp of "priced-in" on anything. Just the way I roll.
Yah, my biggest takeaway from this year is that things that people say are priced in really aren't priced in.
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XOM:
Trading volume, 3.53 million vs 65 Day Average of 19.52 and down -$1.30 at 9:53amCST. Light volume....will not be surprised to see this flip green.
DOE/EIA:
EIA showing a 3.1mb draw. Had Brandon not dumped 1.9mb from the SPR, the draw is 5mb. Yeah, been sayin' and will continue sayin'....we're short crude. Buckle up. WTI,....LOL!....still under price suppression.
Trading volume, 3.53 million vs 65 Day Average of 19.52 and down -$1.30 at 9:53amCST. Light volume....will not be surprised to see this flip green.
DOE/EIA:
EIA showing a 3.1mb draw. Had Brandon not dumped 1.9mb from the SPR, the draw is 5mb. Yeah, been sayin' and will continue sayin'....we're short crude. Buckle up. WTI,....LOL!....still under price suppression.
Quote:
"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 436.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels from last week and are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased, but blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels last week and are about 19% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels from last week and are 4% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels last week."
We've already seen the price action relative to today's FOMC decision.Ag CPA said:
Yah, my biggest takeaway from this year is that things that people say are priced in really aren't priced in.
The Market is forward looking.
Today's FOMC decision was priced in (6) months ago in May. You know, forward looking and whatnot.
...or maybe not.
Glad I saw your post on the dip. I ended up buying nov 25 112c and up a quick 8%.
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Age 24, one of my first trades in Corn Futures. I positioned based on information that was "priced-in" and I got murdered. Never relied on that phrase again and was all the better off for the rest of my life. JMHO.Ag CPA said:
Yah, my biggest takeaway from this year is that things that people say are priced in really aren't priced in.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Just curious regarding that 6 month comment,....what interest rate is the market pricing in today for 6 months out?
5-5.25% by March is the highest odds. (75 Nov, 50 Dec, 25 Feb/Mar)Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Just curious regarding that 6 month comment,....what interest rate is the market pricing in today for 6 months out?
4.75-5% is the next highest. (75 Nov, 50 Dec, 25 Feb OR 75 Nov + 75 Dec and done)
That's exactly why its bullsh**.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Just curious regarding that 6 month comment,....what interest rate is the market pricing in today for 6 months out?
Where the IR 'should' and likely will be (6) months from now is totally detached from today's price action. Not a d@mn thing has cooled off, even with our SPR fudging the Energy inflationary numbers.
My post above was littered with sarcasm.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Thanks!
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Got it. Thank you.
WTI - $6/$7/$11 all 11/18 calls
XOM - $112 11/4 calls
XOM - $112 11/4 calls
The bond market has been acting all week like 4% yield will be where we hang for a while.
But the market did the same thing last time and was "surprised" after the media gaslighted the world about "peak inflation" and "FED pause". Then it spiked well over it's target.
My guess would be FFTR by end of year to 4.50-4.75.
Hard to tell what's actually in store. Don't guess. Not unless you're willing to have VERY tight stops and not be mad if you get caught in the chop despite a correct call.
Personally, I'm shorting the Euro today with a tight stop above. For those that don't do correlations, that means I'm bearish on the Euro and bullish on the dollar which means I'm expecting 75bps and guidance towards AT LEAST continued hawkish sentiment (perhaps not expanded hawking, but definitely not less hawkish). That means I'm bearish on TLT short term and bullish on treasury yields. As far as markets and equities go, how they react is based on a wider array of market forces and a conglomeration of conflicting opinions, not to mention individual company balance sheets, continued earnings reports, and end of year shenanigans mixed with election shenanigans mixed with seasonality. So I will continue to trade the beer candles when they provide confirmed setups.
But the market did the same thing last time and was "surprised" after the media gaslighted the world about "peak inflation" and "FED pause". Then it spiked well over it's target.
My guess would be FFTR by end of year to 4.50-4.75.
Hard to tell what's actually in store. Don't guess. Not unless you're willing to have VERY tight stops and not be mad if you get caught in the chop despite a correct call.
Personally, I'm shorting the Euro today with a tight stop above. For those that don't do correlations, that means I'm bearish on the Euro and bullish on the dollar which means I'm expecting 75bps and guidance towards AT LEAST continued hawkish sentiment (perhaps not expanded hawking, but definitely not less hawkish). That means I'm bearish on TLT short term and bullish on treasury yields. As far as markets and equities go, how they react is based on a wider array of market forces and a conglomeration of conflicting opinions, not to mention individual company balance sheets, continued earnings reports, and end of year shenanigans mixed with election shenanigans mixed with seasonality. So I will continue to trade the beer candles when they provide confirmed setups.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I don't follow WTI stock only WTI crude, but looks like WTI stock is doing well this morning! .... Maybe a bird in hand, no? Can't go broke taking a profit.Mr07Ag said:
WTI - $6/$7/$11 all 11/18 calls
XOM - $112 11/4 calls
XOM's you'll do fine. If you roll to next week, you'll likely do "finer".
JMO
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Trimmed 1/3 here at up 50%.BREwmaster said:
bought XOM 114C's next week, on this dip.
Edit: Great Call Brew!
at best i look at "priced-in" like the line on a football game... a&m 18-pt favorites over app-st? okay, we'll see.Ag CPA said:
Yah, my biggest takeaway from this year is that things that people say are priced in really aren't priced in.
GOOGL sub-$90. Wow. Someone called this last week or the week before (that there would be a buying opportunity below $90)
BREwmaster said:
bought XOM 114C's next week, on this dip.
112 should have some resistance, can take some profits there or set stops higher
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I'm eyeing for purchase..Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
I'm pretty sure GOOGL will be available at sub $90 with earnings drift. As the top cat noted, "Times like this are clarifying," CEO Sundar Pichai declared, adding that Google is pushing to become more efficient "by realigning resources to invest in our biggest growth opportunities" and that "Q4 [employee] headcount additions will be significantly lower than Q3."
"Times like this are clarifying" - now that is real killer CEO speak. I love it. Elon Musk should use this phrase regarding Twitter and the 75% RIF.
gap at 84?
Saltyag15 said:
GOOGL sub-$90. Wow. Someone called this last week or the week before (that there would be a buying opportunity below $90)
Didn't it IPO in the 80s?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Yep, I'm not in a hurry on this one. I think we see more decay. I'll gladly miss the bottom if I can at least manage a good entry.BenRev09 said:
gap at 84?
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