Bob Knights Paper Hands said:

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I still feel bearish and like we have yet to realize how much we shat on the economy the last two years, but SKEW spiking down like it has says the likelihood of a large down move is small. Over the past 5 years each of these spikes below 119 happen at a bottom. Jan2019, May 2019, Aug2019, Oct2019, Mar2020, Oct2020.

Take it for what you will - past returns and all - but I feel more bullish than I feel like I should.

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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That gap fills between now and the end of January 2023.

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irish pete ag06 said:

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So I've been back testing and I've decided to do this. I will try to trade journal this here.



QQQ had the 8/21 EMA cross on the daily on Friday.

I scaled into TQQQ on Friday and Monday with a cost basis of 20.28.

My plan is to ride this the 8/21 EMA cross back on the daily. I plan to scale out along the way on any big rips and potentially sell calls as well (work had me away from my computer this morning or I definitely would have sold calls). But I will be fully out for sure when the 8/21 EMA cross to the downside.

This is a longer term swing... in my back testing, the EMA has triggered up or down 26 times over the last 2.5 years.

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Quote:

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"Bank of America analysts see oil rising a bit further, with the European (Brent) oil price hitting $100 next year, up from $95 recently.

Oil producing titans Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) will particularly benefit, the analysts wrote in a commentary."

"After a bellwether quarter for both XOM and CVX, we see both anchoring lower risk exposure to an evolving macro backdrop," they said.
"We see the relative investment case for CVX and XOM diverging," they said. Chevron will benefit from "legacy capital discipline and portfolio oil leverage."
But momentum will swing toward Exxon, "as five years of countercyclical investment drives divergence in free cashflow," the analysts said.
"While we see greater value with XOM, both names continue to offer low risk leverage to higher long term oil prices."
Further, "with both stocks moving quickly toward zero net debt within the next year," the analysts raised their share-price objective for Exxon to $136 from $123 and for Chevron to $190 from $180.
"We see a pending acceleration in free cashflow underpinning an extended period of relative out-performance for XOM, which remains our top U.S. oil major idea," the analysts said.
Both companies have the balance-sheet capacity to increase cash returns, mainly through share buybacks, they said. "As things stand currently, the absolute scale of buybacks is the same for both at $15 billion," they said.
Morningstar analyst Allen Good assigns the company a narrow moat (competitive advantage). He puts fair value for the stock at $102, compared to a recent price of $111.
But that estimate assumes a Brent oil price of only $60 a barrel. Raise that to $75, and Good's fair-value estimate for Exxon climbs to $126.

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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I added XOM today at $111.24.....had to do something with that T dividend!

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