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GreasenUSA
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Bob Knights Paper Hands said:

I still feel bearish and like we have yet to realize how much we shat on the economy the last two years, but SKEW spiking down like it has says the likelihood of a large down move is small. Over the past 5 years each of these spikes below 119 happen at a bottom. Jan2019, May 2019, Aug2019, Oct2019, Mar2020, Oct2020.

Take it for what you will - past returns and all - but I feel more bullish than I feel like I should.
At the start of the thought, you were bearish, but by the end of the thought, you were bullish. Might be best to watch for a bit - we are right around the 50 sma on SPX and QQQ. I tend to think we're set up for a bit of a move upward here for a week or so, but could very well see a fail here at the 50. Just going to continue to make my trades based on price action each day.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Sponsor
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https://dnyuz.com/2022/11/01/food-prices-soar-and-so-do-companies-profits/

When are we going to demand Windfall Taxes on Food Company Profits?
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I feel that I should feel bearish and I do. However it appears that the larger potential move in the near term is up, so that makes me more bullish than I think I should be. The guy behind the guy.
GreasenUSA
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Ah, got it! I need to drink more coffee before TexAgs'ing too early in the morning.

But, it's a new month. Wipe the slate clean and keep the equity curve moving up and to the right!
BlueTaze
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For those interested in deep dives of QE/QT and how modern fed thinks, Joseph Wang is good resource.

Most vids are pretty long...key takeaway is that looking back decades at yield curve or other variables isn't too useful since the modern fed can manipulate them these days. Also, fed can now get more surgical if "something breaks" and target it with special loan facilities etc. Overall the biggest problem is gov overspending..."free" this and that. It far exceeds the helicopter money. New treasuries is new money increasing supply.


Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I was waiting for SPY RSI to get back to 50 to buy SPX 3900P and ride this gap down to yesterday's close, but it doesn't look like that's goin to happen before we fill the gap. Missed it don't wanna chase it.

I bought some T on the bounce off yesterday's high, but that looks like it's going to stop out. I bought $18P to cover those, so that'll mitigate the loss a bit should I stop out. Other than that I've just been waiting. I got most of my work done early this morning, so I was hoping to be active trading.
Towns03
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

That gap fills between now and the end of January 2023.


Rookie question here: y'all think the pattern lends itself to fill the gap up or down?? TIA!
irish pete ag06
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So I've been back testing and I've decided to do this. I will try to trade journal this here.



QQQ had the 8/21 EMA cross on the daily on Friday.

I scaled into TQQQ on Friday and Monday with a cost basis of 20.28.

My plan is to ride this the 8/21 EMA cross back on the daily. I plan to scale out along the way on any big rips and potentially sell calls as well (work had me away from my computer this morning or I definitely would have sold calls). But I will be fully out for sure when the 8/21 EMA cross to the downside.

This is a longer term swing... in my back testing, the EMA has triggered up or down 26 times over the last 2.5 years.

wanderer
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What is it that OA says about 3 intraday waves down?
techno-ag
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irish pete ag06 said:

So I've been back testing and I've decided to do this. I will try to trade journal this here.



QQQ had the 8/21 EMA cross on the daily on Friday.

I scaled into TQQQ on Friday and Monday with a cost basis of 20.28.

My plan is to ride this the 8/21 EMA cross back on the daily. I plan to scale out along the way on any big rips and potentially sell calls as well (work had me away from my computer this morning or I definitely would have sold calls). But I will be fully out for sure when the 8/21 EMA cross to the downside.

This is a longer term swing... in my back testing, the EMA has triggered up or down 26 times over the last 2.5 years.


TQQQ.
Brewmaster
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wanderer said:

What is it that OA says about 3 intraday waves down?






Rydyn
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So he counts wavetops and not dips.

We are in the third dip and it may be topping, but we still need to see the fourth dip, and the acceleration into the bottom.
wanderer
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Nice find, thanks.

So it seems like we've got the 3 waves, now for the accelerated selling? Then we moon. Easy as that.
Brewmaster
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yeah my next level down is 380ish. Maybe later today they accelerate it down to there.

although with FOMC tomorrow, they could also just chop around 3850 the rest of the day. snoozefest
$30,000 Millionaire
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Yowza. Just able to look now.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I'm looking at the one in the drawn box in the chart.
jamey
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moon = up?
BaylorSpineGuy
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I took a 3875C around 3848. Will see….
Spoony Love
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Wouldn't today be the day for Brew's rounded bottom gifs?
BaylorSpineGuy
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

I took a 3875C around 3848. Will see….


Made my nut on this. Closed it after about 15 min. Bought at $2.45. Sold at $7.50. Nice 2 bagger.
GreasenUSA
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Market looked like it found a bottom and wanted to bounce, then we suddenly get 2 press releases about a NK nuclear test and an imminent Iranian attack.
RosecityAg
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https://www.ft.com/content/2225a9b9-a40d-47c3-9b48-4a852610f252
Fake out?? I was sure he wanted 50bps for midterms…
Spoony Love
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SPY looks like the Llano Estacado today. Holy moly that action just stopped
Brewmaster
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Spoony Love said:

Wouldn't today be the day for Brew's rounded bottom gifs?
edit: faked me out! pushing upward now. Maybe it is rounded

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Quote:

Tim Stewart, (US Oil and Gas Association President) in response to Joe's latest threat on a windfall tax" 10/31/2022 - "... what the White House is saying, is that the federal government will begin dictating a required level of oil and gas investment designed to increase production of oil and gas via the tax code… while simultaneously phasing out oil and gas investment via another part of the tax code. Chest-Pounding against a particular industry and its millions of workers is a pretty weak closing argument for midterms that are not going your way."
Glad to see someone sticking up for the energy sector.

Moving on,....

Mansfield Energy doin' work.

https://mansfield.energy/market-news/supply-alert-october-25-2022/

Got fuel?

XOM, CVX and WTI still heading north, as they should.

ETA at 2pmCST: 3-2-1 crack spread for Oct ended wildly good. Nov starting off great. Long way to go in Q4, but if it holds, XOM will have another historic quarter.
wanderer
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Got wrecked today. Slow day at work and was basically trading for the sake of trading.

Made decent money at the open with some SPX puts and then continued to squander that plus much more (on 0DTE SPX calls/puts). Failed breakouts, impatience on my end, over-trading, revenge-trading. Seems like I continually got the direction wrong no matter what

Time to lick the wounds and tap the breaks a bit.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I'll just leave this here..

Quote:

"Bank of America analysts see oil rising a bit further, with the European (Brent) oil price hitting $100 next year, up from $95 recently.

Oil producing titans Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) will particularly benefit, the analysts wrote in a commentary."

"After a bellwether quarter for both XOM and CVX, we see both anchoring lower risk exposure to an evolving macro backdrop," they said.
"We see the relative investment case for CVX and XOM diverging," they said. Chevron will benefit from "legacy capital discipline and portfolio oil leverage."
But momentum will swing toward Exxon, "as five years of countercyclical investment drives divergence in free cashflow," the analysts said.
"While we see greater value with XOM, both names continue to offer low risk leverage to higher long term oil prices."
Further, "with both stocks moving quickly toward zero net debt within the next year," the analysts raised their share-price objective for Exxon to $136 from $123 and for Chevron to $190 from $180.
"We see a pending acceleration in free cashflow underpinning an extended period of relative out-performance for XOM, which remains our top U.S. oil major idea," the analysts said.
Both companies have the balance-sheet capacity to increase cash returns, mainly through share buybacks, they said. "As things stand currently, the absolute scale of buybacks is the same for both at $15 billion," they said.
Morningstar analyst Allen Good assigns the company a narrow moat (competitive advantage). He puts fair value for the stock at $102, compared to a recent price of $111.
But that estimate assumes a Brent oil price of only $60 a barrel. Raise that to $75, and Good's fair-value estimate for Exxon climbs to $126.
Brewmaster
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Brewmaster
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MOC
2.7 B to the buy side

XOM with some nice buys into the close too
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I added XOM today at $111.24.....had to do something with that T dividend!
Agsquatch
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hopped back into the market, bought RIG and sold $4 c weeklies on it.

is this what making money feels like?
Brewmaster
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

I added XOM today at $111.24.....had to do something with that T dividend!
Looks like a bull pennant to me forming

of course a bear might say, double top. But putting in higher lows, really looks like they want to rip it upward 1 more time before some profit taking and cool off.


Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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API numbers today reflecting a very very large crude draw. We'll see what DOE/EIA numbers reflect at 10:30amCST. If the draw is as large as API numbers suggest, WTI should run up a min of $1, but should really move up $3. Net net, O&G complex should be up tomorrow and Powell's remarks will have to impact the O&G sector on another day. XOM and CVX should be up $1 to $3 also.
lobwedgephil
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wanderer said:

Got wrecked today. Slow day at work and was basically trading for the sake of trading.

Made decent money at the open with some SPX puts and then continued to squander that plus much more (on 0DTE SPX calls/puts). Failed breakouts, impatience on my end, over-trading, revenge-trading. Seems like I continually got the direction wrong no matter what

Time to lick the wounds and tap the breaks a bit.
Easier to look back of course, but after the morning dump on data, and fake pump on pivot, was pretty clear we weren't going anywhere. I was out of my last futures trade by 11:00, and just watched. With tomorrow and no more catalysts today, was just going to chop.

$30,000 Millionaire
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Lots of expectations on this fed meeting.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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