Question from the guppy bowl. I bought a couple XOM 12/16 $115 calls a couple weeks ago at 1.34. Sell one now and go net free on the other? Or let them both ride a bit longer and see what happens when the government stops dumping oil into the market next month?
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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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No one ever went broke taking profit.RenoAg said:
Question from the guppy bowl. I bought a couple XOM 12/16 $115 calls a couple weeks ago at 1.34. Sell one now and go net free on the other? Or let them both ride a bit longer and see what happens when the government stops dumping oil into the market next month?
Get your money back and ride the house money.
Played out wellBREwmaster said:I think so. Puts on big tech has been too easy, gotta ruin some late put buyers.Bob Knights Paper Hands said:
We are going to have an absolute ripper of a day aren't we?
This!$30,000 Millionaire said:SF2004 said:
Four of the largest tech companies **** the bed and gave weak guidance.
Seems legit that SPY would pump.
Scam trash market.
Why do you still think this way?
It's a bear market rally that has now bounced close to Model T off last high/low. I see Mancini thinks 3930 is the top. It might be, or it could be a consolidation leading to a further push back above (Last 2 full range moves did - see blue line on chart) the 200DMA 4050 area. 4080 has a big gap that I think would get filled in that scenario. We'd have talking heads saying the bear market is over, etc.
Brian Earl Spilner said:Brian Earl Spilner said:
lotto is dead after Brew's post above me
RenoAg said:
Question from the guppy bowl. I bought a couple XOM 12/16 $115 calls a couple weeks ago at 1.34. Sell one now and go net free on the other? Or let them both ride a bit longer and see what happens when the government stops dumping oil into the market next month?
Russia/Ukraine cease fire or a statement from China about wanting to maintain current relations with Taiwan and you're at 0. I've been bitten by unexpected news more than once.
Surely it won't play out this cleanly right?oldarmy1 said:This!$30,000 Millionaire said:SF2004 said:
Four of the largest tech companies **** the bed and gave weak guidance.
Seems legit that SPY would pump.
Scam trash market.
Why do you still think this way?
It's a bear market rally that has now bounced close to Model T off last high/low. I see Mancini thinks 3930 is the top. It might be, or it could be a consolidation leading to a further push back above the 200DMA 4050 area. 4080 has a big gap that I think would get filled in that scenario. We'd have talking heads saying the bear market is over, etc.
Red Pear BCS Luke said:No one ever went broke taking profit.RenoAg said:
Question from the guppy bowl. I bought a couple XOM 12/16 $115 calls a couple weeks ago at 1.34. Sell one now and go net free on the other? Or let them both ride a bit longer and see what happens when the government stops dumping oil into the market next month?
Get your money back and ride the house money.
Yeah that's the smart thing. For once I did that. Sold at 3.25. Feels a little odd. Lol.
gig em 02 said:RenoAg said:
Question from the guppy bowl. I bought a couple XOM 12/16 $115 calls a couple weeks ago at 1.34. Sell one now and go net free on the other? Or let them both ride a bit longer and see what happens when the government stops dumping oil into the market next month?
Russia/Ukraine cease fire or a statement from China about wanting to maintain current relations with Taiwan and you're at 0. I've been bitten by unexpected news more than once.
Good point.
Some consolidation next week with FOMC and then the post-election relief rally to set up your chart. Spot on.
I had some January 105 calls I sold for a 300% gain three weeks ago - would've been 1000% if I held them as of this moment. Maybe one day when I kind of know what the hell I am doing I'll have more confidence to ride it out, but no ragrets.
Between uncertainty, stress, up and down dips...sometimes you gotta take the guarantee. Almost every bad decision I've made has been some combination of greed, FOMO, and revenge trading.
Between uncertainty, stress, up and down dips...sometimes you gotta take the guarantee. Almost every bad decision I've made has been some combination of greed, FOMO, and revenge trading.
What's your thoughts on island tops and bottoms? There's an island top around SPY 412 range. Curiously, there's another small gap in high 420s.
Some suggest they don't get filled or often if they do, it's not in a near term.
Some suggest they don't get filled or often if they do, it's not in a near term.
She gone!irish pete ag06 said:
Are we gonna pop 3900 today?
Trying to think about EOD lotto butterflies.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Would be surprising to see those filled, although that SPX gap fill would take SPY close to $410....That might be the perfect end to the move. Remember we had that one gap that was so close to filling and then the bottom dropped out. I even thought it would fill being that close.
oldarmy1 said:
Would be surprising to see those filled, although that SPX gap fill would take SPY close to $410....That might be the perfect end to the move. Remember we had that one gap that was so close to filling and then the bottom dropped out. I even thought it would fill being that close.
Thanks for your insight. Speaking of island bottoms, TLT formed one earlier this week. Will be watching to see if that gap gets tested soon. I played some calls off of it for 21% gain this week.
3385/3875/3865 Put for 0.6
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Lotto obviously but it should at least double.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
First strike is 3885$30,000 Millionaire said:
3385/3875/3865 Put for 0.6
oldarmy1 said:First strike is 3885$30,000 Millionaire said:
3385/3875/3865 Put for 0.6
Yes, thanks for catching. 3885.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
SF - I want you to think about this:
You are applying logic to the stock market but you're applying logic in the classic sense of what should happen based on your bias or in reaction to news events. What you are forgetting is that market moves are also about positioning (who is long/short and why) and forces behind us (central banks / rates / currencies and commodities).
In a more direct fashion: the logic you're applying to the market is incomplete. Time to evolve bro.
You are applying logic to the stock market but you're applying logic in the classic sense of what should happen based on your bias or in reaction to news events. What you are forgetting is that market moves are also about positioning (who is long/short and why) and forces behind us (central banks / rates / currencies and commodities).
In a more direct fashion: the logic you're applying to the market is incomplete. Time to evolve bro.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
great chart - the other 2 rips up had double bottoms too. This would be about the spot (model T) to consolidate, then breakdown to form 2nd bottom before heading north above model T.irish pete ag06 said:Surely it won't play out this cleanly right?oldarmy1 said:This!$30,000 Millionaire said:SF2004 said:
Four of the largest tech companies **** the bed and gave weak guidance.
Seems legit that SPY would pump.
Scam trash market.
Why do you still think this way?
It's a bear market rally that has now bounced close to Model T off last high/low. I see Mancini thinks 3930 is the top. It might be, or it could be a consolidation leading to a further push back above the 200DMA 4050 area. 4080 has a big gap that I think would get filled in that scenario. We'd have talking heads saying the bear market is over, etc.
just a thesis.
Sold all VIX puts. 60% gain.
Buying VIX calls out to Dec monthly.
Buying VIX calls out to Dec monthly.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
390 must be typed into the algo machine. it wants it!
3900
Ready for the 2:45 algo
I sold my 3900 flies for almost 40x. I could have held on for more, but I don't want to be greedy.
Make that pretty much spot on for September and October now. Looks like early November could see a huge run up.South Platte said:
Well this played out pretty consistently with the previous 91 years.— Luke Andreychuk (@LukeAndreychuk) August 26, 2022
So now we blast off in October? All you can chew on TQQQ.
What happened to GILD
Increased dividend by 13%jbeck3487 said:
What happened to GILD
I will probably find a way to screw this up, but man... buying and selling TQQQ and SQQQ based on the 8/21 daily EMA cross looks like a great way to swing trade. I've been doing some manual back testing. I think I am about to start doing this.
Only you guys can appreciate the hilarity of this.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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