This is how I'm seeing the SP500. Either it goes up and breaks out tomorrow, or it's going to head towards 3700. If that fails, 3400.
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Last: 16 hrs ago by jamey
This is how I'm seeing the SP500. Either it goes up and breaks out tomorrow, or it's going to head towards 3700. If that fails, 3400.
A red wave in couple weeks also bodes well for defending against ESG and Climate Change nonsense. Let's also hope our favorite Graphite grandma governor gets some love too, once GOP takes over congress.
People really underestimate how poltical contracts and regs are with gov.
People really underestimate how poltical contracts and regs are with gov.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:From a O&G stance, XOM should remain strong through the rest of 2022 and 2023 (likely 2024 too). There could be some weakness in the energy sector if Russia/Ukraine stop fighting; however, Russian infrastructure will be worn by that time and I doubt many American companies will want to help out based on the exit terms those companies have been given since the war started. So, where is the weakness? The weakness would be from a macro sense. As strong as XOM, CVX, COP, BP HES and others are, they can't support and sustain the entire market on their own (even Apple cant do that). The market in its collective whole will need to drop to bring weakness. If all the other sectors go down, energy will to - to a degree. That's when I figure a $104 will print. (Note: that $107.50 down to $107 is pretty solid support)CC09LawAg said:
Farmer - any idea when you think it'll hit that 104 range? I have a hard time seeing it in 2022, but am trying to make a plan for after this earnings call.
This is not a guarantee, but XOM is as generous as it gets for a stock. The stock runs to earnings, runs after earnings to div, and runs after div payout. It's pretty consistent. Also, I have been noting that Q4 is projecting itself as a blowout even beating Q2 (the ATH Quarter). And, we should have a div increase announced tomorrow. All this support with a backdrop of an O&G issue worldwide. Something will happen somewhere that will weaken XOM. Heck, the analysts to date have ignored XOM due to political reasons, but once they start to focus on XOM, weakness could come from an analyst's "estimate" or "viewpoint" as XOM starts to get under their microscopes of scrutiny.
I still think a buying opportunity is going to present itself in 2022 and I also think the S&P will challenge the ATH's before June 2023. I think it happens in that order too, not reverse.
Other stuff,...
If gasoline goes to $6 or $8 or $10 per gallon, that's going to change some spending habits real quick. Gas should be $6 or $7 nationwide right now. Energy/gasoline should have been allowed to escalate when the Ukraine situation got hot. Energy inflation would have slowed this U.S. economy without The Fed having to raise a rate. Capitalism & Free Markets work. Those Saudi words this week of using artificial means to suppress prices and using up your reserves will likely drive prices higher in the future. <- That's nothing but truth. To me, the U.S. is in the best shape of any other country out there and we are still hurting. The Green Energy Agenda is a scam. I spent 6 years of my career in Renewables (ethanol) and feel I have a good understanding, but what is happening today in this country regarding Green Energy is nothing more than a scam. The Germans are dismantling a wind farm as I type, to expand a surface coal mine. A new "Green Energy" Plant in Nova Scotia runs on coal. What a cluster.
I hope this helps you.
It helps! Thank you so much for being such an awesome part of this community
Personal consumption numbers come out tomorrow. Let's see what happens.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Mornun!
Red around the horn. Watch for trap day and don't get sucked in.
Trade wisely!
Red around the horn. Watch for trap day and don't get sucked in.
Trade wisely!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Farmer was nails again! XOM EPS of $4.45 beats by $.65 and raised dividend by $.03. Thank you for bringing all your insight to the board!
Mooooooooooooooooooooooo
Mooooooooooooooooooooooo
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Live feed of farmer getting his morning exercise in today.
When Farmer speaks, TexAgs Listens $$$$$$$$$. Thank you Farmer!!!
Bonfire1996 said:
MY OPINION
Now is not the time to be scooping up these tech companies. They have tough times in front of them with their valuations. Their perpetual growth mindset has caused them to get real heavy on the expense side, and that's going to take time and more costs to unwind. Meanwhile the consumers of their businesses have significant weakness in front of them.
I'm not a buyer of any of them till Christmas at the earliest.
AAPL is the one to watch as they are the most resilient. The hope would be for GOOGL AMZN META to pull Apple down to give you a better entry point in AAPL.
I think you can get AAPL under $135 in the coming weeks.
Until then, the flow into profitable value stocks with single digit PEs is going to be pretty solid
Not just this, but Congress and regulators are increasingly going to come after all of these companies.
bmoochie said:
Farmer was nails again! XOM EPS of $4.45 beats by $.65 and raised dividend by $.03. Thank you for bringing all your insight to the board!
Mooooooooooooooooooooooo
Shell beat earnings yesterday as well and raised dividend, oil companies continue to kick ass
$110 by month end. Major kudos to Farmer on that!
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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And Uncle Pee-Paw was still yelling at Shell saying that they should be reducing the price of gas and should have no profit.gougler08 said:bmoochie said:
Farmer was nails again! XOM EPS of $4.45 beats by $.65 and raised dividend by $.03. Thank you for bringing all your insight to the board!
Mooooooooooooooooooooooo
Shell beat earnings yesterday as well and raised dividend, oil companies continue to kick ass
I'm willing to bet that he's gonna say the same thing to XOM.
Decided to take my lunch money and run.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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We are going to have an absolute ripper of a day aren't we?
IT's kind of exciting to think we could
I think so. Puts on big tech has been too easy, gotta ruin some late put buyers.Bob Knights Paper Hands said:
We are going to have an absolute ripper of a day aren't we?
I don't know. A lot happened and some of the earnings weren't that hot. Also opex. Chose to use shares early and enjoy a nice day. I'll watch low key and see if anything sets up.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
For me personally, Friday is one of my least profitable days. I know that and just react accordingly. Tues - Thurs are my days.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
i wish i could drop 140k on shares
You'll get there.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
green open, red close in bear markets. We shall see!
I sold Apple at VWAP. But wow.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
bmoochie said:
Farmer was nails again! XOM EPS of $4.45 beats by $.65 and raised dividend by $.03. Thank you for bringing all your insight to the board!
Mooooooooooooooooooooooo
- Total revenues & other income $112.07 billion, +52% y/y, blowing away estimates of $103.14 billion
- EPS $4.68 vs. $1.58 y/y, blowing away estimates of $3.89
- Upstream adjusted net income $11.84 billion, estimate $11.69 billion
- Energy products adjusted net income $5.54 billion, estimate $3.39 billion
- Chemical products adjusted net income $812 million, estimate $791.9 million
- Specialty products adjusted net income $762 million, estimate $750.5 million
- Chemical prime product sales 4,680 kt, -2.8% y/y
- Production 3,716 KOEBD, +1.4% y/y
- Crude oil, NGL, bitumen and synthetic oil production 2,389 KBD, +3.3% y/y
- Natural gas production 7,963 MCFD, -1.8% y/y
- Refinery throughput 4,165 KBD, +2.8% y/y
Out of my XOM calls, still holding my shares. Thanks Farmer
I'd like to see SPY push over 385 to get in some possible puts.
I have found an indicator that puts the EMAs of a selected time frame static. So I put the 8/21 Daily EMA on mine where it shows up on all time frames... it's the red blocky thing in the middle. Exactly where the QQQ ran to and is now meeting some resistance.
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And today i learned that Heikin Ashi is the indicator Heinekin refers to as beer candles. Did all yall already know this?
AAPL being at odds with mostly everything else is making trades on the index ETFs tough.
starting to layer in spy puts out to next Friday here, swing trade
Left a ton of money on the table with this XOM run up but ultimately came out ahead.
Great learning experience. If I can get more smarter and make some money at the same time, I will take that every day.
Thanks again for the advice everyone!
Great learning experience. If I can get more smarter and make some money at the same time, I will take that every day.
Thanks again for the advice everyone!
Missed it. Work got in the way. I was going to buy a boat load of SPX calls at the open.
Took a small loss on some SPY puts. It flashed above the 50 SMA range on daily. I got stopped out.
Perfect follow through to start and todays 3850 main target already hit in #ES_F and cleared for 85 points off the 3765 back-test
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) October 28, 2022
May chop, but ES has now reclaimed the key 3820 support. Failed breakdown. As long as above 3820 (ideally), 3875-80, lift off to 3930+ in play next https://t.co/NSVGYL0UF6
SPX is up and battle is still in 1900 area.
Daily beer candles show back to back indecision.
If you were already in, I'd have stop at 3800. If you aren't in, I'd wait for decision and breakthrough of 3900. Next decision area is minor at 4000.
Daily beer candles show back to back indecision.
If you were already in, I'd have stop at 3800. If you aren't in, I'd wait for decision and breakthrough of 3900. Next decision area is minor at 4000.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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