topher06 said:

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Damn Amazon down 15%, grabbed a few shares at $89.74 just hoping for a model T

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Tough to trade any aspect of the model T when we don't even know the bottom of the move yet.

Man, this is wild. I stayed away today because I was busy..probably for the best. Did want to buy an AAPL put so I probably left some money on the table there.

irish pete ag06 said:

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TREX has formed on the SPX 1 hour

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Isn't this super-bearish? That T-rex is going to have to eat something well below his head.

Grim Reaper meme here. Google, Meta and Amazon are dead, Apple finna get axed.

welp, here's what the market was waiting for to trigger the next move

On one hand it's easy to look at AMZN and stay away not wanting to catch a falling knife......on the other hand it's easy to look at it as a no-brainer buy right now if you're looking at a 2-3yr+ and beyond timeframe.

MY OPINION

Now is not the time to be scooping up these tech companies. They have tough times in front of them with their valuations. Their perpetual growth mindset has caused them to get real heavy on the expense side, and that's going to take time and more costs to unwind. Meanwhile the consumers of their businesses have significant weakness in front of them.

I'm not a buyer of any of them till Christmas at the earliest.

AAPL is the one to watch as they are the most resilient. The hope would be for GOOGL AMZN META to pull Apple down to give you a better entry point in AAPL.

I think you can get AAPL under $135 in the coming weeks.

Until then, the flow into profitable value stocks with single digit PEs is going to be pretty solid

Went ahead and unloaded that Amazon at 93.18. I have no desire to be in tech, but its at least dinner money for a couple days.

There's three big macro events in November too -

Midterm elections, Fed meeting (likely rate increase), and end of SPR draw.

Rate increase is certain. Question is whether its 50 or 75.

FJ43 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I hope you guys weren't long overnight. Sheesh.

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Nope

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Hope yall killed it today. Went short close to the high Tue and held through today. Up 70% on a normal size options scalp/ trade for me. Will see what the open does and exit. Could go either way.

Same SRs and zone I have been posting.



Remember gents….its still a downtrend until it isn't.

Trade wisely!

XOM & CVX,....tomorrow will be glorious (AH showed up in strength)

h/t to all you Longs out there.

I'll miss you folks in the morning. Daddy needs those Call Leaps to trigger tomorrow. Gotta make hay while the sun is shining.

Energy is where it's at. Should be this way for "a while". Be careful, we have some strong headwinds building in the market..

Time for a beer and final prep for tomorrow. Hell yes I can sing this song. ALMOST as good as they can.

If someone would have told you that MSFT would be down ~10% post earnings, GOOGL ~10%, META ~20%, AMZN ~15% and yet SPY would still finish the week green (possibly/probably), would you have believed them??

CC09LawAg said:

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Farmer - any idea when you think it'll hit that 104 range? I have a hard time seeing it in 2022, but am trying to make a plan for after this earnings call.

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From a O&G stance, XOM should remain strong through the rest of 2022 and 2023 (likely 2024 too). There could be some weakness in the energy sector if Russia/Ukraine stop fighting; however, Russian infrastructure will be worn by that time and I doubt many American companies will want to help out based on the exit terms those companies have been given since the war started. So, where is the weakness? The weakness would be from a macro sense. As strong as XOM, CVX, COP, BP HES and others are, they can't support and sustain the entire market on their own (even Apple cant do that). The market in its collective whole will need to drop to bring weakness. If all the other sectors go down, energy will to - to a degree. That's when I figure a $104 will print. (Note: that $107.50 down to $107 is pretty solid support)

This is not a guarantee, but XOM is as generous as it gets for a stock. The stock runs to earnings, runs after earnings to div, and runs after div payout. It's pretty consistent. Also, I have been noting that Q4 is projecting itself as a blowout even beating Q2 (the ATH Quarter). And, we should have a div increase announced tomorrow. All this support with a backdrop of an O&G issue worldwide. Something will happen somewhere that will weaken XOM. Heck, the analysts to date have ignored XOM due to political reasons, but once they start to focus on XOM, weakness could come from an analyst's "estimate" or "viewpoint" as XOM starts to get under their microscopes of scrutiny.

I still think a buying opportunity is going to present itself in 2022 and I also think the S&P will challenge the ATH's before June 2023. I think it happens in that order too, not reverse.

Other stuff,...

If gasoline goes to $6 or $8 or $10 per gallon, that's going to change some spending habits real quick. Gas should be $6 or $7 nationwide right now. Energy/gasoline should have been allowed to escalate when the Ukraine situation got hot. Energy inflation would have slowed this U.S. economy without The Fed having to raise a rate. Capitalism & Free Markets work. Those Saudi words this week of using artificial means to suppress prices and using up your reserves will likely drive prices higher in the future. <- That's nothing but truth. To me, the U.S. is in the best shape of any other country out there and we are still hurting. The Green Energy Agenda is a scam. I spent 6 years of my career in Renewables (ethanol) and feel I have a good understanding, but what is happening today in this country regarding Green Energy is nothing more than a scam. The Germans are dismantling a wind farm as I type, to expand a surface coal mine. A new "Green Energy" Plant in Nova Scotia runs on coal. What a cluster.

I hope this helps you.

I can't thank you enough for your insight and what you bring to this thread. Seriously, thank you for taking the time and sharing your wisdom.