Haha I don't venture to F16 Prog I've seen you disappear too often to risk it

Good feedback though. Will be interesting to watch .

irish pete ag06 said:

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I must be too slow when it get above EMAs because I feel like my entries sucked. So then I'd try to cut quick.

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This is something this board helped me with tremendously. It was one or more of OA, FJ, 30k, or Foggy that got me to think more about playing the bounce off the pullback. Now I feel confident with 2 entries. Sometimes I may feel confident that I'm an early bird and I'll get in, but often I'll wait for the retest of a pivot, MA, or other resistance that now may be support. Sometimes I'll use both entries as a way to pyramid in as my confidence on the trade grows.

I've missed moves doing that, but I've limited losses as well and it's helped lower the volatility of my trading performance and ultimately helped me close more green days.

irish pete ag06 said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Oh man. Sorry to hear. What happened?

Trend was up. Fomo?

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A little of everything, but yes mainly.

I tried hard not to buy knives (like my old habit) but I must be too slow when it get above EMAs because I feel like my entries sucked. So then I'd try to cut quick.

It was compounded by a late day trade I cut too soon… I cut it for a 50% loss (probably at the low)… I'd seen too many days sell off at the end… if I'd held it would have been a 100% win. That one hurt.

Watching the options charts all day was really inciteful.

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I've had pretty good luck trading UPRO on the 5 minute chart using the MACD for the buy signal and RSI + MACD for the sell.

Bob Knights Paper Hands said:

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irish pete ag06 said:

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I must be too slow when it get above EMAs because I feel like my entries sucked. So then I'd try to cut quick.

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This is something this board helped me with tremendously. It was one or more of OA, FJ, 30k, or Foggy that got me to think more about playing the bounce off the pullback. Now I feel confident with 2 entries. Sometimes I may feel confident that I'm an early bird and I'll get in, but often I'll wait for the retest of a pivot, MA, or other resistance that now may be support. Sometimes I'll use both entries as a way to pyramid in as my confidence on the trade grows.

I've missed moves doing that, but I've limited losses as well and it's helped lower the volatility of my trading performance and ultimately helped me close more green days.

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if SPX opens up it will usually retest the 21 on the minute chart within the first 30 minutes. It is important to wait for that retest and a few minutes of capitulation. You can usually load +50 point calls for a quick $1-2 on the next move up. Cut if it loses the ema. If it loses if will typically bottom around lunch. Trade the initial retest bounce and a post lunch rally. Been the trend the last several weeks.

I would at least consider this an early rejection of the 50 period MA on daily timeframe. GOOG and MSFT charts were approximately there as well and failed hard AH. Need to watch futures overnight.

krosch11 said:

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Haha I don't venture to F16 Prog I've seen you disappear too often to risk it

Good feedback though. Will be interesting to watch .

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Why you gotta bring up old *****

Here is a zoom if of SPX on the minute chart. I was a little late wanted to execute at the green arrow but really wanted to see a reversal so bought at the blue candle. Sold them all by the end of the three green candle extension out of the bollinger channel just a few minutes later.

You can see the volume profile too. Matched right along with the movement up.

Ragoo said:

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Here is a zoom if of SPX on the minute chart. I was a little late wanted to execute at the green arrow but really wanted to see a reversal so bought at the blue candle. Sold them all by the end of the three green candle extension out of the bollinger channel just a few minutes later.

You can see the volume profile too. Matched right along with the movement up.

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You bought the correct candle, the green arrow could have kept going down to lose your ema support. Where you bought, you see the curl up. Went against you for a second but held and took off. Well done, very well executed there. The "curl" is common when breaking out of consolidation.

Things are lining up for value plays real nice with recession looming. Those of you that get year end bonuses are in for a treat.

Did you ever think you would see the day that AAPL, MSFT, and maybe even GOOGL could be viewed as value plays? Coming soon with these earnings and macro economic conditions

Bought Google. Stop 95.10

Bonfire1996 said:

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Things are lining up for value plays real nice with recession looming. Those of you that get year end bonuses are in for a treat.

Did you ever think you would see the day that AAPL, MSFT, and maybe even GOOGL could be viewed as value plays? Coming soon with these earnings and macro economic conditions

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I agree with you that Growth Tech will be of value in Dec/Jan, and right now tech money is seeking safety and moving to energy. Energy at some point way down the road will be overdone. Right now,...

Moving on,...


Snip from Talking Alpha this morning.

Quote:

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Saudi Arabia has fired off a warning shot aimed at the U.S. as a high-level standoff over crude oil and supply agreements goes public. Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Kingdom's oil minister, accused unnamed countries of using their emergency oil reserves to "manipulate markets rather than helping with shortages of supply." The remarks come after the Biden administration authorized the release of another 15M barrels of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve as it tries to curb elevated gasoline prices in the wake of production cuts from OPEC+.


Quote: "We, as Saudi Arabia, decided to be the maturer guys," he told the Future Investment Initiative Forum, otherwise known as Davos in the Desert. "It is my profound duty to make it clear to the world that losing emergency stock may become painful in the months to come. Running out of capacity has a much dearer cost than what people can imagine."

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Bang Bang Bang

Energy is where it's at now. Friday will be glorious.

My XOM Q3 estimate is $4.06

Forward Teaser: If you look at the 3-2-1 crack spread, XOM in Q4 could blow out the Q2 historic earnings record. Q4 has started in a super way and there is a long way to go, but extrapolation today points to a blow out in Q4. Yes it does.

XOM a $400 billion company? LOL! Try $1 trillion. Way undervalued. Go XOM! (CVX looking perky too!)

Have a great day!

Those *******s tried to shake me out of my 0Dte 3830 SPX calls for a loss right before the explosion upward. Target reached and I'm out.

I have 2 MSFT 230 calls hoping we'll get a model T today. I'll hold as long as macros stay above opening price.