My 2 week forecast:
11/18 - NFLX reports decent earnings, SPX pops
11/19 - TSLA reports bad earnings, SPX loses gains from NFLX
11/25-28 - Remaining big tech companies report bad earnings and we tank
10/31 - SPX under 3500

Bookmark it

Out of all puts, may load some calls overnight.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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I probably would have played the 3700 pin. Good call on 3750.

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Well crap a nice 3725/3700/3675 put fly would have been nice. I'm going to keep two SPY puts overnight.

topher06 said:

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Out of all puts, may load some calls overnight.

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Damn, only had time to load a few calls before this shot up. At least unloaded the puts.

EDIT: Out on the calls. ~15% in 7 minutes too good to pass up, although I'm sure I'll kick myself tomorrow if NFLX reports well.

Can't lie though, i'm not sure I expect NFLX to report well when every other service came out with something good in the last quarter (although I'm not sure how much people actually cancel Netflix to switch to others versus just adding the others). House of Dragons, Andor and Lord of the Rings were all very pumped up, what did Netflix add during that time?

Same. I bought some 375 calls that went up 50% in 15 minutes on that little spike so I sold. I wanted these so I could play NFLX earnings. I have an open order to buy back at my initial purchase price.

Reloaded some puts, next Friday expiration 360 strike.

topher06 said:

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topher06 said:

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Out of all puts, may load some calls overnight.

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House of Dragons, Andor and Lord of the Rings were all very pumped up, what did Netflix add during that time?

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Megamind?
Sing 2?

Yeah...you're probably right on this one.

I bought a very far OTM NFLX strangle with some jingle made on XSP scalps. Here's to volatility!

jj9000 said:

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topher06 said:

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topher06 said:

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Out of all puts, may load some calls overnight.

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House of Dragons, Andor and Lord of the Rings were all very pumped up, what did Netflix add during that time?

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Megamind?
Sing 2?

Yeah...you're probably right on this one.

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Sarcasm? I don't have kids, but those sound like kid shows... were they huge hits? Serious question. The only kid I take care of sometimes is still in the Daniel Tiger phase (shoot me).

Let's see if they loaded the murder algo today.

EDIT: Unloaded 50% of puts.

Goodness Netflix….

Golf1 said:

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Goodness Netflix….

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Well I suck, glad I didn't play it directly. Congrats to those of you who did.

Another $230/share and I'm back to break even with my small 5 shares.

irish pete ag06 said:

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I bought a very far OTM NFLX strangle with some jingle made on XSP scalps. Here's to volatility!

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Go ahead and close that gap NFLX, I dare ya

I sold almost all of the FGEN. I bought some call spreads with part of the profits in case it does pop, but wanted to derisk

Haha to $330??? That would be impressive.

Triple_Bagger said:

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My 2 week forecast:
11/18 - NFLX reports decent earnings, SPX pops
11/19 - TSLA reports bad earnings, SPX loses gains from NFLX
11/25-28 - Remaining big tech companies report bad earnings and we tank
10/31 - SPX under 3500

Bookmark it

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1 for 1….
Wouldn't hate for you to be right about the rest either since I have some puts in TSLA I'm ready to get rid of.

Yes it would.

Suspect the fed will probably **** on the parade as they seek to shock inflation out of the economy (as you mentioned a few days ago, they can't hold the rates high for long so they'll be resorted to a shock approach). However, the premiums on SPY out to November 2 are absolutely juiced... might take a flier on a few still.

Still really bad at wanting the market to go down. I'm going to take a loss on some puts overnight (offsetting part of the trades earlier in the day, posted on this thread), but I'm still happy the market is going up as whatever I lose on these is more than offset by my actual stock account that I don't mess with other than to sell covered calls. Wish I could be as neutral as some of our more experienced traders are, I know I'm still biased upside.

Edit: market up pretty nice after hours

Bob Knights Liver said:

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I sold almost all of the FGEN. I bought some call spreads with part of the profits in case it does pop, but wanted to derisk

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I would put a tight trailing stop on it, but morning action have been volatile. Still hoping to squeeze 22 out of it.

I didn't want to do a stop because I think we'll see a stop raid just before any really big push. I'd rather take the 5% return or just continue to let it ride.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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Supposedly the Biden administration is going to explain their plans to lower gasoline prices today or tomorrow morning. We may see E&P stocks take a little hit and then drift. If so the last good buying opportunity may come on Friday, IMO.

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They will release 15 million barrels.

Bonfire1996 said:

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We are in a technical rally and earnings will be good based upon expectations levied after 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. Bank earnings are down from years past, but they are slaughtering expectations built in the 2nd quarter.

Play this rally but get ready to go short. You have had the following inflation this year:

1Q and 2Q: Energy inflation, rent flat, food slow inflation
3Q: Food inflation, Rent inflation, Energy deflation
4Q: Food inflation, rent inflation, energy inflation after SPR drain concludes
1Q2023: Full on stagflation

Get ready. Lotto puts on November 1 are going to be gold. FED and SPR stop in the same week.

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weren't you bullish though on real estate in 2023 and 2024? or at least your real estate connections are.

great posts as always sir!

Hmm

What does it mean?

Gap up means we will fill it in this market

Probably open back up at the top of todays candle and trade down or sideways. Bringing the 8EMA closer to the 21. If that happens and we get a cross with volume into next week we might see a prolonged reversal.