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24,723,429 Views | 233430 Replies | Last: 38 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
irish pete ag06
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AG
Ragoo said:

This is where I get upset for flipping and not holding.

Probably should just turn off until Monday.
Got to eliminate this and be a robot!

Yes, you made 2K!

Don't dwell on what might have been because it will cause you to hold too long the next trade and let a green go red. This is an anomalous event.
Ragoo
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BREwmaster said:

you made $2k+ today bro, count the benjamins and be happy!
yeah. Would have been 120kish.
topher06
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Ragoo said:

BREwmaster said:

you made $2k+ today bro, count the benjamins and be happy!
yeah. Would have been 120kish.
Yeah okay you can be a little upset.
gig em 02
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Ragoo said:

BREwmaster said:

you made $2k+ today bro, count the benjamins and be happy!
yeah. Would have been 120kish.


Yea but think of the TAXES yuck!
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
I spent the entire week expecting a bounce and buying here and there.

Today, the one time it looked like there was certainly more pain coming, I cancelled my orders and lowered all my limits. Of course, that's the moment everything decided to rally.

I've given up trying to understand how this market works.
Wrighty
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What are the odds we see a 1,000 point DOW movement from where its' at now, by end of day. like 90%?
Heineken-Ashi
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Screams of algos that were programmed to buy buy buy after a breach of a certain threshold. That threshold was 3500.

I wouldn't get too bullish. Ride the trends in whatever time period you trade. Make your money. But long term, these algos will be the first to sell at the next resistance level unless the economy legitimately starts to improve. And they will be out before you can blink.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
topher06
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Out of all long SPY calls (I was only holding December 2022 and January 2023 so not as impacted by this swing). Too volatile, but I'm sure I'll regret it. Caught almost the entire run up though thanks to a work call.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Sponsor
AG
Just want to be on the record that I don't trust this rally we have right now. Seems like one last little pop before a rug pull.
Heineken-Ashi
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

I spent the entire week expecting a bounce and buying here and there.

Today, the one time it looked like there was certainly more pain coming, I cancelled my orders and lowered all my limits. Of course, that's the moment everything decided to rally.

I've given up trying to understand how this market works.
Looks to me like the smart money knows exactly what you are going to do and is prepared to whip your butt every time.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
topher06
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Bank earnings will matter.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Harry Wang still loading puts!!!
$30,000 Millionaire
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Savage. Yet true.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Really proud of my CRWD execution. I don't normally nail them perfectly like that.
Philip J Fry
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Bought 10k of UPRO at 25.9. Nice to make a little of my losses over the year back.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Heineken-Ashi said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

I spent the entire week expecting a bounce and buying here and there.

Today, the one time it looked like there was certainly more pain coming, I cancelled my orders and lowered all my limits. Of course, that's the moment everything decided to rally.

I've given up trying to understand how this market works.
Looks to me like the smart money knows exactly what you are going to do and is prepared to whip your butt every time.
Ag CPA
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Not going to put money where my mouth is but I would not be surprised if we end the day in the red.
topher06
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What are we doing with XOM shares? Covered calls or just holding waiting on a dividend announcement? By we, I mean Farmer Johnson (post check up).
Wrighty
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Heineken-Ashi said:

While you rejoice at the reality of the FED eventually balking on their own hawkishness, I hope you do so with the economic understanding that it is suicide either way. Our fate was decided when we created the debt and enabled decades of doomed-to-fail Keynesian modern monetary policies to take hold of us.

The FED easing to come might be good for short to mid term equities, but it will also halt the strength of the dollar at a time where nothing else in the world can realistically compete.

Would it suck if the government couldn't service its debt because of high interest rates? Absolutely. The only way to remove debt is to pay it off or inflate the money supply so much that the middle class is saddled with an ever increasing burden under the false disguise of "higher wages". During this process, you will always notice those at the top use the cheap debt and "stimulus" to purchase hard assets to further increase their wealth and shield themselves from the coming calamity.

The FED reversing would indicate only one thing. That the powers that be have no intention to fix our problems. If they truly wanted to fix our problems they would be lobbying Congress to cut every single expense item and to stop spending money. Any solution outside of severely cutting the size, scope, and bloat from everything remotely attached to government is merely window dressing.

But then you remember that the FED exists for only one reason - to bailout their constituents who cause the majority of the pain our economy experiences. They do this by printing money and slashing rates, often injecting newly minted bloat directly into corrupt and proven failure organizations. They saddle the middle class with future inflation and ever-increasing taxes, regulations, and burden. Then they tell you it was for your own good. And you believe it because you buy the lie that they exist to protect you directly after causing the event they were created to protect you from.

It's all a charade. And time is running out. Modern monetary policy has failed massively. And the only tool left is to inject more failed MMP. Because to do otherwise would be to enter immediate dire deep recession, and then depression, and to admit that Keynesian style central bank governance is a complete and total failure. Funny thing is, we either find this out voluntarily, or by force. The music will stop one way or another. Because easing before getting inflation in check isn't going to miraculously turn us back into a vibrant, cheap economy. It's gasoline on a fire.
Quacked
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bought TSM at the dip 65c for .36, and sold a little early at 2.71

ETA: I really am feeling some spy put lottos
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Doctor says I can go back into the game. Yea me!

Bang Bang Bang

XOM looking dapper, $101.50 / +$3.08 / +3.13%

EIA report was 30 minutes delayed. Cook the books. Doesn't matter. Word of the artificial surplus is finally getting saturated in the streets and penetrating thick & thoughtless skulls.

Next month look for CPI improvement unless energy goes to the moon Jupiter - yeah, I want energy to go to the moon Jupiter.

Regardless, I'm standing by the post I suggested to bookmark earlier this week. Things are looking great! All while, German's going to freeze, Europe is running out of Euro's, gas diesel and natgas going up in $, and my new black elephant boots arrive Saturday.
Golf1
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AG
Cheddar flow keeps tweeting large orders of puts on so many things. Not sure if it's hedging, expect lower, or people are just stupid at this point.

Everything's overbought today or we found the overall bottom and everyone is buying.

If everyone is buying then that brings a big short squeeze in play.

Good luck traders lol.
irish pete ag06
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Harry Wang still loading puts!!!
Good thing he's rich off the sub money
gig em 02
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Golf1 said:

Cheddar flow keeps tweeting large orders of puts on so many things. Not sure if it's hedging, expect lower, or people are just stupid at this point.

Everything's overbought today or we found the overall bottom and everyone is buying.

If everyone is buying then that brings a big short squeeze in play.

Good luck traders lol.


If I had the cash I'd be selling appl GOOGL and AMZN puts, either get a generational wealth price or collect some good premium. Unless the world ends.
irish pete ag06
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I'd bet we got a date with that pink downward trend line going back to 4325.28... We've only traded 1 day above it and that was when J Pow gave his fire and brimstone speech re-confirming his Jackson Hole comments.

Philip J Fry
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Back to mostly cash. Was thinking I'd take an SH position, but every time I look at that chart, it looks like it's near the peak…but when I look at SPY, I think there's more to fall. Weird position to be in so I'm sitting it out.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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topher06 said:

What are we doing with XOM shares? Covered calls or just holding waiting on a dividend announcement? By we, I mean Farmer Johnson (post check up).
I am waiting on earnings. They will rock! Maybe not as good as Q2 (a historic record), but they are going to rock! Look for a dividend increase to be announced too! (XOM announces div increases in Q3 more consistent than an Apple watch) Some weeks back I was going to sell Calls on Oct 21st $105's and missed it - got interrupted on that day by a family emergency. I wasn't happy, but it is what it is and there's always another opportunity and we got one coming up. We are going to get a new ATH this year and likely before month end. XOM is going to $120 between now and June 2023. In 3 to 5 years $200 (actually may be at $200 in 18 to 20 months).

What I'm doing -

XOM runs up to earnings, runs up to div pay out date and runs after payout. It's a giving investment. I'm being patient.
For one segment of my portfolio, I am moving my sell Calls view to the $120 strike. Month, I don't know yet.
For another segment of my portfolio, I'll be looking at those $105's again. Month, I don't know yet.
For another segment of my portfolio, I will likely sell some shares at $118.
BlueTaze
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Added to RIG and RIVN Jan calls. Solid demand for these oversold businesses. Not bullish on economy or market, but a Q4 relief rally probable IMO. From 3500 or 3400.....then next year we still grind lower. Still bear market not to fight fed.
Ragoo
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What a gut punch
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Heineken-Ashi
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

I spent the entire week expecting a bounce and buying here and there.

Today, the one time it looked like there was certainly more pain coming, I cancelled my orders and lowered all my limits. Of course, that's the moment everything decided to rally.

I've given up trying to understand how this market works.
Looks to me like the smart money knows exactly what you are going to do and is prepared to whip your butt every time.

Friend, I'm going to offer something to you. I highly recommend you listen.

Stop gambling.
Stop guessing.
Stop throwing darts.

Black out the noise and focus. What is your goal? Are you a day trader? Swing trader? Long term hold?

Whatever it is, focus on the time period that suits that style. If you are a day trader, you need to know where the macro market is, yes, but should primarily be on hourly, 5-min, or 15-min candles. You enter on a confirmed trend and exit when the trend shows first sign of uncertainty. No ifs or buts. Use an indicator like RSI or MacD if you want, but don't trade with it, only let it act as support to the trend. Don't hold overnight unless you are trading futures. If that means no opening of trades in the last hour, then so be it.

If you are a swing trader, you probably need to pay attention to some fundamentals. Does it cash flow? Is it in a rising or declining sector? How is it performing in relation to it's history. How is it performing in relation to how it performed based on fundamental indicators like book value, earnings, etc. How is it guiding over the last couple of quarters? Is there a trend? Once you have a picture painted, then pull up the chart and TRADE THE TREND. If it looks uncertain, then wait. If it's trading at 3x of book/share, but historically operates at 5x book/share and is guiding upwards on revenue, then it's a buy. If it's trading at 3x book/share, but historically operates at 5x book/share and has had declining earnings and is expecting revenue to decline, then its a hold. Just because something is beat to hell doesn't make it an auto buy.

And if you are a long term trader, do the same as above but with an outlook looking backward and forward years instead of quarters.

Be smart. Make smart decisions. Not impulsive ones.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Brian Earl Spilner
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I've never been a day trader. Always been a long term holder.
topher06
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I have sold calls on 50% of my shares at $110 expiring October 21, I fortunately repurchased the other 50% which were sold at $105. I'm debating selling 50% at $110 expiring in November, but may just wait until earnings because I agree that they will be outstanding and will likely be accompanied by a material dividend increase particularly as they bring on more production from that Guyana play. Exxon is in an amazing position right now, wish I had more money I could throw at it (being in O&G, I can't be too heavy in oil and gas stocks).
Philip J Fry
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Gotta love WWR going red on a day of green everywhere.
topher06
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Philip J Fry said:

Gotta love WWR going red on a day of green everywhere.
Feel like WWR is a lost cause.
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