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Bonfire1996
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5:24p, 10/12/22
AG
Two reasons the FED high rates for extended periods of time is the biggest financial bluff in world history.

1. Debt Service: the most the USA has ever paid in interest expense on its Federal debt is $251 billion in a single fiscal year. Ever. What are we on pace to pay in Fiscal 2023? $800 Billion. Fiscal 2024 if we use the FED's current dot plot forecast? $1.4 Trillion. In other words, it will never happen. We will be back to historic lows soon

2. Repo Rate: Every night, banks can send money back to the FED for reverse repo interest at the FED funds rate. Since Covid stimulus, banks have been consistently send back $2.2 Trillion every night. Before the FED went ape shlt, the interest rate they paid on that $2.2 Trillion was 0.05% or $3 million a day. That FED funds rate is now 3.25% and the FED is paying banks $195 million every day. After the November meeting it'll be $240 million every single day, 7 days a week. A billion every 4 days. From $3 million a day to $240 million a day: 80x increase. Nope.

The biggest bluff in financial market history.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 6:10p, 10/12/22
Excellent recap. That tells the story.

The Fed at at the 5, 6 and possibly 7 percent that Cem Carsen touted a few weeks back would be an expense that would consume the Federal Budget all by itself. With that being said, I see no other way out of this ordeal unless Brandon drops Green Energy, apologizes to U.S. Big Oil and asks them for help, i.e. drilling, fracking and pipelines to bring energy prices down. I don't think Brandon will do that sort of thing. As Defense Secretary Robert Gates said himself regarding Brandon, "He has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades." ..... What are your thoughts on the fix for this economic situation?
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 6:11p, 10/12/22
Bonfire1996 said:
Two reasons the FED high rates for extended periods of time is the biggest financial bluff in world history.

1. Debt Service: the most the USA has ever paid in interest expense on its Federal debt is $251 billion in a single fiscal year. Ever. What are we on pace to pay in Fiscal 2023? $800 Billion. Fiscal 2024 if we use the FED's current dot plot forecast? $1.4 Trillion. In other words, it will never happen. We will be back to historic lows soon

2. Repo Rate: Every night, banks can send money back to the FED for reverse repo interest at the FED funds rate. Since Covid stimulus, banks have been consistently send back $2.2 Trillion every night. Before the FED went ape shlt, the interest rate they paid on that $2.2 Trillion was 0.05% or $3 million a day. That FED funds rate is now 3.25% and the FED is paying banks $195 million every day. After the November meeting it'll be $240 million every single day, 7 days a week. A billion every 4 days. From $3 million a day to $240 million a day: 80x increase. Nope.

The biggest bluff in financial market history.


So you suggesting that they're gonna pivot and loosen up rates? They have adamantly said otherwise. That goes against their dual mandate.

Interesting take. Have u held this belief for a while? Thought you suggested otherwise at some point, maybe I'm misremembering.

Weren't you saying last week that the Fed was gonna keep raising rates cause inflation* is gonna stay high?
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SW AG80
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6:32p, 10/12/22
AG
People I know in the mortgage business (who have a lot of experience in that business) say that 2023 and 2024 will be great years for the mortgage brokers and lenders.
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Bonfire1996
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6:38p, 10/12/22
AG
I've always thought they would pivot. They will spike more between now and March, but then I think the pivot happens rapidly. They can "afford" these rates only temporarily. Especially since they are paying interest with yet to be printed dollars, which isn't sustainable.

But that's why I posted this here. While they are telling everyone that no pivot is coming, it is battering this market. People are getting slaughtered. VLO at 5x earnings. LYB at 5x earnings. GOOGL at under 20x earnings. MU at under 7x earnings, it's just stupid. I post this because the pivot is absolutely coming, and we can all benefit from it by setting long positions this Winter.

When they pivot, GOOGL rockets to 30x earnings and the others I mentioned rocket past 10x earnings. This Winter is the opportunity of a lifetime. I think it was Mohammed El Arian who made an interesting quote: When the FED makes a policy mistake, it's an opportunity for those who recognize it.
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Bonfire1996
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In reply to SW AG80 • 6:39p, 10/12/22
AG
RiverAg 80 said:
People I know in the mortgage business (who have a lot of experience in that business) say that 2023 and 2024 will be great years for the mortgage brokers and lenders.
It will. People are still working as of now, which is just causing pent up demand. Drop rates and all that gets released at once.
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topher06
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6:53p, 10/12/22
SPY feeling kind of peppy after hours, although it will all depend on CPI I guess
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topher06
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 6:53p, 10/12/22
Cause of the refinances?
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FJ43
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7:08p, 10/12/22

Howdy Gents!

No scalping for me this week. Just waiting through the chop.

Interesting spot. Decision coming soon IMO.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Bonfire1996
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In reply to topher06 • 7:16p, 10/12/22
AG
topher06 said:
Cause of the refinances?
and purchases. It's all going to roll through
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BlueTaze
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7:21p, 10/12/22
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SF2004
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 7:21p, 10/12/22
AG
I think they are trying to shock the system and get prices normalized to the huge influx of money supply. Remember these prices will never go down, they just need to get them to stop rising so fast.

Un fing the supply chain, stopping congress and potato head from spending, and making people actually work (stop importing illegals) would also go a long way.

Lastly, people need to realize that a job affords a standard of living not a dollar amount. Morons who voted for dems thinking the toilet paper dollars would actually do anything will be our undoing.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Ragoo • 8:06p, 10/12/22
AG
Ragoo said:
BREwmaster said:
Ragoo said:
Don't know what y'all are complaining about. I flipped the SPXW 3650c 0DTE for $1600 today. Only 2 trades too.
c'mon, need more info. $800 profit avg, but how many contracts?

regardless, well done brotha!
20 on first trip
9 on second

Bought 2.20 on the first green candle 9:08 am after big red candle. Bag held through the rise and fall.
Bought 1.20 on the double bottom reversal 9:47 am
Avg 1.87
Sold on the spike up to 3608 for 2.35

Sold 2.35

Bought 0.65
Sold 0.85
Nice work! thanks for replying. I like to read through these and work it out on the chart. Weak open hour was a great play long.
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Ragoo
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In reply to Brewmaster • 8:07p, 10/12/22
AG
Correction it was 30 and 9 if you work the math out. I averaged down by adding 10 more contracts.
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gig em 02
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8:08p, 10/12/22
If democrats keep the house and senate none of it matters. They will pass a $5T equity bill in 2023.
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Peter Klaven
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8:08p, 10/12/22
AG
Anyone watching BOIL? With temperatures headed down and this ETF back to summer prices, it's on my watchlist.

Chart wise, it seems like it's been consolidating after ripping a head and shoulders pattern across August and September. Model T from the August high to the recent low would be 84ish, right where there's a pair of gaps on the daily in September.

Anyone smarter than me have any thoughts?
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 8:12p, 10/12/22
AG
Bonfire1996 said:
I've always thought they would pivot. They will spike more between now and March, but then I think the pivot happens rapidly. They can "afford" these rates only temporarily. Especially since they are paying interest with yet to be printed dollars, which isn't sustainable.

But that's why I posted this here. While they are telling everyone that no pivot is coming, it is battering this market. People are getting slaughtered. VLO at 5x earnings. LYB at 5x earnings. GOOGL at under 20x earnings. MU at under 7x earnings, it's just stupid. I post this because the pivot is absolutely coming, and we can all benefit from it by setting long positions this Winter.

When they pivot, GOOGL rockets to 30x earnings and the others I mentioned rocket past 10x earnings. This Winter is the opportunity of a lifetime. I think it was Mohammed El Arian who made an interesting quote: When the FED makes a policy mistake, it's an opportunity for those who recognize it.
blue star sir, great posts as always
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Peter Klaven • 8:20p, 10/12/22
AG
Peter Klaven said:
Anyone watching BOIL? With temperatures headed down and this ETF back to summer prices, it's on my watchlist.

Chart wise, it seems like it's been consolidating after ripping a head and shoulders pattern across August and September. Model T from the August high to the recent low would be 84ish, right where there's a pair of gaps on the daily in September.

Anyone smarter than me have any thoughts?


How good of a trader are you? Nat gas is very hard.
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Peter Klaven
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:27p, 10/12/22
AG
There is a reason I put it out here first! Appreciate the reply.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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9:06p, 10/12/22
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Falls-After-API-Reports-Large-Crude-Inventory-Build.html

Quote:
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a large build this week for crude oil of 7.054 million barrels. U.S. crude inventories have grown by roughly 28 million barrels so far this year, according to API data, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves fell by nearly seven times that figure, at 184 million barrels.
The build in crude oil inventories was made possible by the Department of Energy's release of 7.7 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the week ending October 7, leaving the SPR with 408.7 million barrels.
In the week prior, the API reported a draw in crude oil inventories of 1.770 million barrels after analysts had predicted a much build of 1.966 million barrels.

WTI fell further on Tuesday, continuing the price slide that began earlier in the week. At 1:49 p.m. ET, WTI was trading down $1.99 (-2.23%) on the day at $87.36 per barrelup just $0.60 per barrel from the prior week, with the OPEC+ bump now evaporated. Brent crude was trading down $1.85 (-1.96%) on the day at $92.44an increase of $0.40 increase on the week.

U.S. crude oil production has remained flat for months. For the week ending September 30, U.S. crude oil production stayed at 12.0 million bpd, according to the latest weekly EIA data. This is just a 300,000 bpd rise from the levels seen at the start of the year, and still a 1.1 million bpd shortfall from the levels seen at the start of the pandemic.
The API reported a build in gasoline inventories this week of 2.008 million barrels for the week ending October 7, compared to the previous week's 3.474 million-barrel draw.
Distillate stocks saw a draw this week, with a loss of 4.560 million barrels, on top of last week's 4.046-million-barrel decrease.

Cushing inventories fell 750,000 barrels in the week to October 7. In the week prior, the API saw a Cushing increase of 925,000 barrels. Official EIA Cushing inventory for the week ending September 30 was 25.956 million barrels, up from 25.683 million barrels in the prior week.
So without Brandon dumping another 7.7M SPR barrels on the market last week API would be showing a 0.7M barrel draw. The S&D is your indicator. It's been this way for months. Gas should easily be $6.50 average in the U.S. based on all these weeks of artificially keeping the price down via the SPR.

The 4.56M barrel distillate draw is large. Distillates getting tighter each week with Midwest harvest in progress.

DOE/EIA report out tomorrow at 10:30 ET/9:30CT, 2 hours after September CPI prints. Should be an interesting morning. I'll be at my doctor's office for the annual physical. Timing. What timing..
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Philip J Fry
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9:43p, 10/12/22
AG


Thoughts on ABCM? Looks like an "easy" 20% to me.
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Just Tired
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 9:51p, 10/12/22
ABCM has turned down at the 200dma at the last two highs and that is less than 10% above.
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Heineken-Ashi
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6:32a, 10/13/22
While you rejoice at the reality of the FED eventually balking on their own hawkishness, I hope you do so with the economic understanding that it is suicide either way. Our fate was decided when we created the debt and enabled decades of doomed-to-fail Keynesian modern monetary policies to take hold of us.

The FED easing to come might be good for short to mid term equities, but it will also halt the strength of the dollar at a time where nothing else in the world can realistically compete.

Would it suck if the government couldn't service its debt because of high interest rates? Absolutely. The only way to remove debt is to pay it off or inflate the money supply so much that the middle class is saddled with an ever increasing burden under the false disguise of "higher wages". During this process, you will always notice those at the top use the cheap debt and "stimulus" to purchase hard assets to further increase their wealth and shield themselves from the coming calamity.

The FED reversing would indicate only one thing. That the powers that be have no intention to fix our problems. If they truly wanted to fix our problems they would be lobbying Congress to cut every single expense item and to stop spending money. Any solution outside of severely cutting the size, scope, and bloat from everything remotely attached to government is merely window dressing.

But then you remember that the FED exists for only one reason - to bailout their constituents who cause the majority of the pain our economy experiences. They do this by printing money and slashing rates, often injecting newly minted bloat directly into corrupt and proven failure organizations. They saddle the middle class with future inflation and ever-increasing taxes, regulations, and burden. Then they tell you it was for your own good. And you believe it because you buy the lie that they exist to protect you directly after causing the event they were created to protect you from.

It's all a charade. And time is running out. Modern monetary policy has failed massively. And the only tool left is to inject more failed MMP. Because to do otherwise would be to enter immediate dire deep recession, and then depression, and to admit that Keynesian style central bank governance is a complete and total failure. Funny thing is, we either find this out voluntarily, or by force. The music will stop one way or another. Because easing before getting inflation in check isn't going to miraculously turn us back into a vibrant, cheap economy. It's gasoline on a fire.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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BaylorSpineGuy
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6:47a, 10/13/22
Futures popped up pretty good on account of report that UK officials are working on U-turn for Truss's tax cuts.

This could be a wild day. Happy to not have skin in game here…
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ibdm98
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 6:48a, 10/13/22
AG
Heineken with the Happy Thursday post
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sts7049
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7:15a, 10/13/22
AG
15 min until chaos. which way we goin?
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to sts7049 • 7:16a, 10/13/22
AG
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BlueTaze
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 7:19a, 10/13/22
Yeah, it only gets more discouraging when we see Fed can kicking rewarded with a Nobel Peace Prize. Meanhwile, Blackrock who facilitates fed policy is leveraging citizen retirement cash to force US to adopt ESG, while giving China a pass in order to maintain their accredited status with CCP. Finally, as a result of Fed combating Bitcoin to preserve USD global reseve status, we will all end up with a US digital dollar that leftists can leverage to combat "climate change" and "systematic racism". Don't comply and your dollars expire early, fight back and your dollars are revoked. All sounds crazy until you realize the current POTUS just recently checked its citizenry with threats of fighter jets and nukes.

#guns #ammo #SPY puts
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Golf1
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7:24a, 10/13/22
AG
Assuming the report is good, how confident do you feel that we've hit the bottom?
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to ibdm98 • 7:24a, 10/13/22
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 7:24a, 10/13/22
Heineken-Ashi said:
While you rejoice at the reality of the FED eventually balking on their own hawkishness, I hope you do so with the economic understanding that it is suicide either way. Our fate was decided when we created the debt and enabled decades of doomed-to-fail Keynesian modern monetary policies to take hold of us.

The FED easing to come might be good for short to mid term equities, but it will also halt the strength of the dollar at a time where nothing else in the world can realistically compete.

Would it suck if the government couldn't service its debt because of high interest rates? Absolutely. The only way to remove debt is to pay it off or inflate the money supply so much that the middle class is saddled with an ever increasing burden under the false disguise of "higher wages". During this process, you will always notice those at the top use the cheap debt and "stimulus" to purchase hard assets to further increase their wealth and shield themselves from the coming calamity.

The FED reversing would indicate only one thing. That the powers that be have no intention to fix our problems. If they truly wanted to fix our problems they would be lobbying Congress to cut every single expense item and to stop spending money. Any solution outside of severely cutting the size, scope, and bloat from everything remotely attached to government is merely window dressing.

But then you remember that the FED exists for only one reason - to bailout their constituents who cause the majority of the pain our economy experiences. They do this by printing money and slashing rates, often injecting newly minted bloat directly into corrupt and proven failure organizations. They saddle the middle class with future inflation and ever-increasing taxes, regulations, and burden. Then they tell you it was for your own good. And you believe it because you buy the lie that they exist to protect you directly after causing the event they were created to protect you from.

It's all a charade. And time is running out. Modern monetary policy has failed massively. And the only tool left is to inject more failed MMP. Because to do otherwise would be to enter immediate dire deep recession, and then depression, and to admit that Keynesian style central bank governance is a complete and total failure. Funny thing is, we either find this out voluntarily, or by force. The music will stop one way or another. Because easing before getting inflation in check isn't going to miraculously turn us back into a vibrant, cheap economy. It's gasoline on a fire.


I'll have the blue pill, please.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 7:25a, 10/13/22
You "(obviously in a worse mood)" .. LOL!

...throwing the ol' molotov cocktail just before the parade starts. Dayum son, too much truth for this hour of the morning. Go decaf next time,...same great flavor.

To the rest - Y'all have fun! Going to see the doctor. As one comedian put it, it's the annual reminder of what it feels like to be a popsicle.
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Golf1
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7:32a, 10/13/22
AG
Hey Siri, play Fall by Clay Walker.
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Saltyag15
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7:32a, 10/13/22
AG
SPY just punched through $350
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sts7049
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7:33a, 10/13/22
AG
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