RiverAg 80 said:
People I know in the mortgage business (who have a lot of experience in that business) say that 2023 and 2024 will be great years for the mortgage brokers and lenders.
what's the reasoning behind this?
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Last: 1 hr ago by Heineken-Ashi
what's the reasoning behind this?
BoydCrowder13 said:
I honestly am curious at when the number will drop below 8. We've been stuck in this range for like 6 months.
- CPI prints above 8.3% -> this will be another -5% day. The Sep 13 CPI print, when the whisper number was a miss but got a beat instead (8.3% vs. 8.1% consensus; 8.5% prior) triggered a 4.3% decline in the SPX as Credit outperformed.
Rates will crash because they have to. Higher rates are unsustainable to sovereign governments' fiscal budgets.LMCane said:RiverAg 80 said:
People I know in the mortgage business (who have a lot of experience in that business) say that 2023 and 2024 will be great years for the mortgage brokers and lenders.
what's the reasoning behind this?
of course the inflation numbers are not reality- they admit as such when they "adjust for seasonality" and have changed the way they calculate CPI and PPI from the method they used in the early 1980sTxducker said:
I worry that true inflation numbers are worse than what's being reported and are economy is in worse shape than what they are letting us know. Even wall street missed and underestimated this month's cpi. The current administration has already tried to change the historical definition of recession and transitory inflation rhetoric last fall. My paranoia and TRUST issues with the government is not getting better and I worry about a much longer correction especially with the higher interest payments on the national debt. More sqqq and xom for me going forward.
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AG
Wow look at that model t off the opening move. Voodoo!
Bought 10 SPX 0DTE 3550c $4.70
Sold $6.00
These move fast so took my money, don't look at the what ifsā¦.
Sold $6.00
These move fast so took my money, don't look at the what ifsā¦.
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Bought a couple 342p there
ENVX filled it's gap back to earnings on 8/10. $16.33 and filled it to the penny.
I have read about this company. There's a twitter guy I follow who is loaded to the gils in 2025 leaps for it.wanderer said:
ENVX filled it's gap back to earnings on 8/10. $16.33 and filled it to the penny.
Anyone care to share their thoughts here about ENVX?
Zero hedge posted an article today that was profound. Not their usual conspiratorial stuff either.
1. FED's primary media mouthpiece had a recent article softening the idea of a pivot or twist. Twist being a stopping of Net QT by adding in bond purchases to investment retirement, thereby nullifying their balance sheet shrinking
2. The FEDs main research folks actually reached out to Zero Hedge for backup data from an analyst who predicts pivots and twists based upon treasury market breakdowns
Conclusion: FED is going to twist. Still raise rates to combat inflation, but start buying bonds to relieve credit markets, and effectively end QT.
What does this mean? I don't know but I think the 10 year will drop, measurably in response.
Just FYI: a 10 yr bond hovering at 4% is the ultimate pause button on the housing market. Nothing is getting done in housing with the 10 yr at 4%. Nothing. Prices would have to correct 30% or more to restart the housing market at that level, and that is market disaster that makes 2008 look funny in terms of real dollars.
1. FED's primary media mouthpiece had a recent article softening the idea of a pivot or twist. Twist being a stopping of Net QT by adding in bond purchases to investment retirement, thereby nullifying their balance sheet shrinking
2. The FEDs main research folks actually reached out to Zero Hedge for backup data from an analyst who predicts pivots and twists based upon treasury market breakdowns
Conclusion: FED is going to twist. Still raise rates to combat inflation, but start buying bonds to relieve credit markets, and effectively end QT.
What does this mean? I don't know but I think the 10 year will drop, measurably in response.
Just FYI: a 10 yr bond hovering at 4% is the ultimate pause button on the housing market. Nothing is getting done in housing with the 10 yr at 4%. Nothing. Prices would have to correct 30% or more to restart the housing market at that level, and that is market disaster that makes 2008 look funny in terms of real dollars.
irish pete ag06 said:
I know 8.2 is bad, but is this a first move fake out potential?
Very common post-data action in #ES_F with the initial big move (trap) then retracement. 3500-3510 was support today and held exactly, with >3535 needed to rally to 3575 and en route
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) October 13, 2022
Bulls must reclaim 3575-85 major resistance to see any "low". 3500 fails, we continue to 3460 https://t.co/4VS6Q9ID9t
cmon baby
twitter guy = Cohodes?
They produce silicon-anode lithium-ion batteries. Supposedly their big advantage is some 3D architecture that increases energy density.
They produce silicon-anode lithium-ion batteries. Supposedly their big advantage is some 3D architecture that increases energy density.
eliant_capital
He's a little overbearing on his bear celebrations, but he's pretty sharp.
He's a little overbearing on his bear celebrations, but he's pretty sharp.
so to a dunce like me, this means we could potentially see a nice rally in the markets soon.
likely yes. Any move away from their current policy signals that they don't have the bullets they say they have, and that easy money policy is on the horizon again.BREwmaster said:
so to a dunce like me, this means we could potentially see a nice rally in the markets soon.
$SPY Uh oh... š pic.twitter.com/54jGkxih4V
— Cheddar Flow (@CheddarFlow) October 13, 2022
No longs until this crosses.
This is how you do it my babies.
What is that? It has the word "quant" so you know it's good.$30,000 Millionaire said:
No longs until this crosses.
It's an indicator I bought from simpler trading. Their stuff works not as "signals" like they say, but as context.
I'm kinda surprised SPY has bounced this muchā¦ now I feel like it will end up green today.
Bought crowd strike. Stop 145.7
Golf1 said:
I'm kinda surprised SPY has bounced this muchā¦ now I feel like it will end up green today.
I will laugh and laugh and laugh if it does. Honestly very possible. The algos were going to sell no matter what this morning.
It looks like I did update it as you were posting this.Spoony Love said:
I'm going to need Prog to bump his politics thread at some point regarding transitory inflation.
Prog?
Wow, he must have just bumped it while I was making this post. Nice!
The reason we should not be concerned about inflation - Page 19 | TexAgs
I set a stop on my SPX runner for $4. Honestly gonna be kind of mad if it doesn't get to $20
they're buying the piss out of SOXL
a leveraged bull semi. It is super beat down though.
a leveraged bull semi. It is super beat down though.
Going to let CRWD and SPX work. CRWD more likely to work IMO. If not stopped, I want to look to exit 2:45ish.
Bought 20 SPX 3600c 0DTE $1.60
Sold $2.00
+$2000 for the day and done
Sold $2.00
+$2000 for the day and done
I see 3568 being HVY resistance.
You're killing it dude.
LOL at this damn market.
Setting an alarm for $20 on SPX. I'll probably set a tighter stop around there.
Great work. I know you know this, just be careful with that far OTM after 11 am central.Ragoo said:
Bought 20 SPX 3600c 0DTE $1.60
Sold $2.00
+$2000 for the day and done
Honestly kind of irresponsible not to take some profit on CRWD here