Hit Mancinis leg down target 3510. Feels like a great day for Wall St. to cover shorts with retail panic selling.
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Yikes
Do we even have an economy anymore?
WallStreet’s CPI Estimates pic.twitter.com/R8GhhsSsIf
— Cheddar Flow (@CheddarFlow) October 13, 2022
At 8.2, worse than the market was expecting.
I know 8.2 is bad, but is this a first move fake out potential?
TexasStone
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I honestly am curious at when the number will drop below 8. We've been stuck in this range for like 6 months.
Lol
I don't think it mattered what the number was, they were going to sell.
Headline is higher than expected and that's WITH the pullback in crude during September. Ouch...
it's a helluva fake out if so.
After the tightest range day since July yesterday in #ES_F, CPI as usual didn't disappoint with the volatility. 3575 fail was downside trigger to 3510 and hit 3510 exact and instantly before trying a bounce. Needs > 3535 to bounce back to 3575 now
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) October 13, 2022
3500-3510 fails, 3460-70 next https://t.co/golrqM1VG7
I would expect some SPY short covering at open, but doubt it's enough to reclaim 3575.
I'm not sure what they expect. It's a supply side problem and they are trying to fix it by making capital harder and more expensive to get. Clearly, the FED hasn't destroyed enough jobs yet to overcome the supply problem.
US Core CPI Surges To 40 Year Highs; Food & Shelter Costs Soar
THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 - 08:38 AM
While the market's volatility this week has been focused on UK pension funds and budgets and systemic risk, this morning's US CPI print will likely determine the next leg from here with expectations for an acceleration in core inflation and small slowdown in headline growth of consumer prices.
Disappointingly, for the hopeful bulls, Headline and Core CPI printed hotter than expected.
Headline CPI rose 0.4% MoM (double expectations) and up 8.2% YoY (hotter than the +8.1% expected)
THURSDAY, OCT 13, 2022 - 08:38 AM
While the market's volatility this week has been focused on UK pension funds and budgets and systemic risk, this morning's US CPI print will likely determine the next leg from here with expectations for an acceleration in core inflation and small slowdown in headline growth of consumer prices.
Disappointingly, for the hopeful bulls, Headline and Core CPI printed hotter than expected.
Headline CPI rose 0.4% MoM (double expectations) and up 8.2% YoY (hotter than the +8.1% expected)
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Look at VIX while all the stocks tanked. Didn't move. What does that mean?
nobody wants to hear this, but we still do not have it nearly as bad as many countries.
try living in one with inflation 5-7% per month
try living in one with inflation 5-7% per month
Bob Knights Liver said:
Look at VIX while all the stocks tanked. Didn't move. What does that mean?
VIX futures up 2.25%
Use /VXV22
Bob Knights Liver said:
Look at VIX while all the stocks tanked. Didn't move. What does that mean?
Just my idiotic opinion here. VIX not spiking with no absolute limit down days suggests to me that while this is bloody, it's pretty much expected by the big players.
Uncertainty will be what drives VIX to 80 like COVID did. This seems like it's a less uncertain time even if it is brutal.
Jobs are the only lever remaining….
Yep look at VIX futures. VIX will move at open and will be somewhat telling. 36 is the key point to look for a spike as its two standard deviations from the average level in the long-run. 34-36 has been a great time to buy all year. Only been above 36 once all year back in March with the Russia news.BlueTaze said:Bob Knights Liver said:
Look at VIX while all the stocks tanked. Didn't move. What does that mean?
VIX futures up 2.25%
Use /VXV22
I'm going to need Prog to bump his politics thread at some point regarding transitory inflation.
Prog?
Wow, he must have just bumped it while I was making this post. Nice!
Prog?
Wow, he must have just bumped it while I was making this post. Nice!
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
I'm gonna buy the lower trendline touch at 340ish
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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AG
I'm thinking I'm gonna go have a nice old fashioned at the local pub and wait for this to all blow over.
Anyone care to join?
Anyone care to join?
What's that rule about 6 down days in a row?
This will probably retrace some today, but I'm not in a hurry to knife catch. Market needs time to digest
I worry that true inflation numbers are worse than what's being reported and are economy is in worse shape than what they are letting us know. Even wall street missed and underestimated this month's cpi. The current administration has already tried to change the historical definition of recession and transitory inflation rhetoric last fall. My paranoia and TRUST issues with the government is not getting better and I worry about a much longer correction especially with the higher interest payments on the national debt. More sqqq and xom for me going forward.
gig em 02 said:
What's that rule about 6 down days in a row?
When was last time? 2007-08?
Red Pear BCS Luke said:
I'm thinking I'm gonna go have a nice old fashioned at the local pub and wait for this to all blow over.
Anyone care to join?
Direct imbed not working but you get the point
Don't confuse a retrace with a reversal! Rookie trader error #1
for the S&P 500? last month.BaylorSpineGuy said:gig em 02 said:
What's that rule about 6 down days in a row?
When was last time? 2007-08?
Red Pear BCS Luke said:
I'm thinking I'm gonna go have a nice old fashioned at the local pub and wait for this to all blow over.
Anyone care to join?
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
-3 ATR for SPX futures is 3430. The bands have also gotten steep in the downtrend. Recipe is ripe for some severe limit down day to mark some sort of interim bottom.
GreasenUSA said:for the S&P 500? last month.BaylorSpineGuy said:gig em 02 said:
What's that rule about 6 down days in a row?
When was last time? 2007-08?
I meant 7! Sorry
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Red Pear BCS Luke said:
I'm thinking I'm gonna go have a nice old fashioned at the local pub and wait for this to all blow over.
Anyone care to join?
After that CPI reaction to a 0.1 miss and still reported lower than last month, this may be the best trade idea today.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
-3 ATR for SPX futures is 3430. The bands have also gotten steep in the downtrend. Recipe is ripe for some severe limit down day to mark some sort of interim bottom.
I'm not a bottom ticker. But if I was I'd feel really good there for a small risk big reward type of bet. I could see a 200-400 point move encompassing the period between now and the next hike. All the while, CNBC would be telling us for the 3,400th time about peak inflation.
And just so I'm clear. I do not recommend timing a bottom. Nor do I think we are at a long term bottom. Follow the trends. When a trend becomes indecisive, cash out and wait for it to decide. Guessing is fun and can be lucrative, but can also be painful.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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