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Brewmaster
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9:10a, 10/12/22
AG
bullish... believe it or not, if today's low holds, we're making a beauty of a rounded bottom going back to Friday. and the touches are almost perfect

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TecRecAg
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In reply to TecRecAg • 9:12a, 10/12/22
AG
TecRecAg said:
I did some totally non-technical work on SPY last night. I looked at the point increase from June of each year for the last 6 years. Average 27.6 points YoY (until you get to 2020). June of 2020 was only a 15 point increase from 2019. June 2021 is a 100 point increase over '20. I'm not telling anyone anything in here that doesn't already know this, but the future looks bleak when I did this.

If you were to keep the average increase over the course of '20 and '21 (like Covid never happened) it lands us at SPY 352. Weekly 200EMA currently... 354.

When retail finally taps out, I think that's where we are headed.

Signed,
Not an expert on anything.
My post from March. We're here.
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Golf1
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In reply to Brewmaster • 9:22a, 10/12/22
AG
FOMC today and CPI tomorrow could trap a lot of people if going by that.


Or you could be a genius and beat the system if that holds.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Golf1 • 9:30a, 10/12/22
AG
Golf1 said:
FOMC today and CPI tomorrow could trap a lot of people if going by that.


Or you could be a genius and beat the system if that holds.
I could care less what the numbers are, I'm only looking for technical setups, support, resistance, trend lines etc.

A lot of the time too the market prices in the bad news first, then when it's released we rip, trapping bearish retail.
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techno-ag
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 9:31a, 10/12/22
AG
irish pete ag06 said:
techno-ag said:
Yeah someday tech will go back up, one would think, and TQQQ will soar.
In all seriousness... I'm planning to open an account and DCA into TQQQ a small amount each month and not even look at it until we hit all time highs again. Haha.



This guy notes a correlation between market bottoms and the number of shares outstanding in TQQQ. It's not perfect, but it's interesting.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546022-current-tqqq-metrics-still-indicate-a-bear-market-bottom

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irish pete ag06
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In reply to Brewmaster • 9:33a, 10/12/22
AG
BREwmaster said:
bullish... believe it or not, if today's low holds, we're making a beauty of a rounded bottom going back to Friday. and the touches are almost perfect

Yes...

Seems like the way retail gets screwed the most.

Negative headlines stacked on negative headlines. Many of which are easily manipulated (like the BOE guy saying you got 3 days or whatever).
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Philip J Fry
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9:42a, 10/12/22
AG
Anyone else eyeing DNN?
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South Platte
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9:44a, 10/12/22
I've lost money twice on LABU. Tempting to jump in again with it so low. Would love to make it thrice.
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Bird Poo
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 9:51a, 10/12/22
AG
Philip J Fry said:
Anyone else eyeing DNN?
Yes. Wanting it to get sub $1 and I'll buy a bunch.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to techno-ag • 9:51a, 10/12/22
AG
techno-ag said:
irish pete ag06 said:
techno-ag said:
Yeah someday tech will go back up, one would think, and TQQQ will soar.
In all seriousness... I'm planning to open an account and DCA into TQQQ a small amount each month and not even look at it until we hit all time highs again. Haha.



This guy notes a correlation between market bottoms and the number of shares outstanding in TQQQ. It's not perfect, but it's interesting.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4546022-current-tqqq-metrics-still-indicate-a-bear-market-bottom

That's an interesting article. Thank you for sharing.
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Golf1
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10:00a, 10/12/22
AG



This person either knows something or they have some huge balls.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to Bird Poo • 10:01a, 10/12/22
AG
Bird Poo said:
Philip J Fry said:
Anyone else eyeing DNN?
Yes. Wanting it to get sub $1 and I'll buy a bunch.
Right at the trend line that has sent it up a few times.

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MS08
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10:14a, 10/12/22
AG
Been hammered on my position in MRVL. Should have put a limit on the downside to mitigate loss. Ride it out? Load up? Or Sell? Ugh.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 10:17a, 10/12/22
AG
yep, and this is working! I just closed SPY call scalp, solid gains.

and updated, actually goes back to Friday morning low.

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irish pete ag06
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10:43a, 10/12/22
AG


SPX breaking out of the triangle.




Spoke too soon.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 10:51a, 10/12/22
AG
Yup, that's what I was seeing. Got in at 1.09. Was wanting 1.07, but wasn't in a position to make the order at the time.
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BlueTaze
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In reply to Golf1 • 10:53a, 10/12/22
Golf1 said:



This person either knows something or they have some huge balls.


Or they have a bigger short position.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to Brewmaster • 10:55a, 10/12/22
AG
BREwmaster said:
yep, and this is working! I just closed SPY call scalp, solid gains.

and updated, actually goes back to Friday morning low.



Seems to be holding.
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Golf1
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10:59a, 10/12/22
AG
Yesterdays Model T seems to be holding today at $359.36. I feel like it's going to be breaking above it soon but we will see.
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irish pete ag06
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11:09a, 10/12/22
AG
War at 3600
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Brian Earl Spilner
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11:29a, 10/12/22
AG
This is getting old. Looking like another slow bleed the rest of the day.
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Wannabud
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11:41a, 10/12/22
AG
Will see. Fed minutes out at 1 so who knows.
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topher06
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12:07p, 10/12/22
God SPY premiums are out of control
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$30,000 Millionaire
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12:17p, 10/12/22
AG
Foxy Oxy.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 12:18p, 10/12/22
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
This is getting old. Looking like another slow bleed the rest of the day.
lows keep holding though, and actually higher lows. So I'd lean bullish. and I think the news is priced in at this point.
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topher06
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12:21p, 10/12/22
What would the FOMC minutes say that would be helpful? Seems like it would need to be: Guys, I know we are throwing haymakers meeting after meeting but I think we should just do one more for ****s and grins and then be done with it. No one tell Nancy, she front runs everything and we want this to be a surprise.
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wanderer
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 12:29p, 10/12/22
Assume you've moved stops up to BE?

You're treating this as a day trade? Scaled out any yet?

Nearing yesterdays high of 65.45. There's a tiny gap from Monday (65.59) to fill as well.
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Brewmaster
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12:42p, 10/12/22
AG
holding up like a champ.... OR is it!

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BlueTaze
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In reply to topher06 • 12:44p, 10/12/22
topher06 said:
What would the FOMC minutes say that would be helpful? Seems like it would need to be: Guys, I know we are throwing haymakers meeting after meeting but I think we should just do one more for ****s and grins and then be done with it. No one tell Nancy, she front runs everything and we want this to be a surprise.


Possible debate of .50 vs .75 hike in Nov or maybe holding vs increasing. Hard to imagine it will be more hawkish than Powells speech targeting expectations.

That's said, no telling which way market moves on any new insight.
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sts7049
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12:46p, 10/12/22
AG
3590 gotta break down soon
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wanderer
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In reply to wanderer • 12:56p, 10/12/22
Filled that gap perfectly. Let's see if there's continuation. Next resistance at ~66.14?
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Ragoo
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1:01p, 10/12/22
AG
Time for algo city
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Ragoo • 1:07p, 10/12/22
AG
Ragoo said:
Time for algo city
they're going to BTFD
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Ragoo
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In reply to Brewmaster • 1:10p, 10/12/22
AG
BREwmaster said:
Ragoo said:
Time for algo city
they're going to BTFD
see if they can push it back to HOD.

Otherwise it's just white noise.
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topher06
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In reply to Brewmaster • 1:10p, 10/12/22
No one knows, they're just destroying retail at the moment still with huge churns.
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