I'm becoming very encouraged by those waiting for confirmation of the trend, even if you are just looking at the regular candles and not the beer candles.

But what is confirmation? How do we know?

Remember that we are in a bear market (until we're not). So the trend is down. Confirmation downward only takes 2-3 daily beer candles before you can make good money to the downside. Hourly, it might take 4-5, but it's the same.

But most here aren't shorting the market or major indices. So you're itching to get involved upward. That's why you keep throwing in at every bottom Jim Cramer slurs his words over, despite the FED admitting they are following the 2-year (hint, watch the 2-year bond.. what the market does with that tells you what the FED will be doing).

So what is confirmation of an upward trend? In a bear market, it takes longer and acts like a high school track athlete in that it has to win "multiple events" to even start to become talked about.

Let's look back at the dot com bubble burst. This was the most recent period similar to the current where the market was coming off a decade or longer of a parabolic move and entering a potential recessionary environment.

https://i.imgur.com/qlYT8Nj.jpg

See how quick the downtrends confirm with each new leg? But the only uptrend that you didn't get caught with your pants down was the one that took a while and finally broke above the long term trendline downward. And that was after the entire leg down retraced the prior move up by at least 50%. Of course that was merely phase 1 as the next near decade was a bear market bounce that ended with another low. But that uptrend was still profitable. And did you have to jump in at the very bottom to make money? How bad was it to wait for confirmation? Not very.

Now let's look at the grand scheme of where this current downtrend falls.

https://i.imgur.com/JSTkDxF.jpg

I didn't draw it here, but this current move down hasn't even hit 50% retracement since the pandemic, much less the last major bottom (Great Recession). And we're well below the downward trendline still. Look closer..

https://i.imgur.com/1pXrUS1.jpg

In fact, we have to fight above a smaller trendline before we even get a shot at the final race against the big trendline.

Long story short, if you are long, be very careful. I wouldn't be. And the futures beer candles show a potential rounding top. But I also wouldn't be short yet. We're in the kitchen right now and the chef is chopping. And remember, it doesn't take long for the downward trend to confirm. Once it does, go wild. And we don't exit downward trends after we enter until we get the first green beer candle or upper wick.

My laugh for today. (Sound NSFW)

Jerome Powell talking to the United Nations and IMF after they beg him to stop raising interest rates.

🔊🤣 pic.twitter.com/NZffEZkOnO

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) October 5, 2022

Brian Earl Spilner said:

---

What exactly are "beer candles"?

---

https://i.imgur.com/irv6qAS.jpg

From my earlier posts

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

SPX - There's a likely reversal of trend. Could last a couple candles, could last a while. If we get a continuation of trend with no lower wicks that breaks the yellow trend line, game on.

https://i.imgur.com/BgruXcu.jpg

When viewing the market through beer candles, you have to understand that each candle opens at the halfway point of the previous candle and represents the average of the current time period's action.

Open = 1/2(open of previous bar + close of previous bar)
Close = 1/4(Open + High + Low + Close)
High = Max of high, open, and close.
Low = Min of low, open, and close.

A strong trend up will be green or unfilled and have no lower wicks. Opposite for strong downward trend. A candle with a wick on both sides is around a 75% signal that a reversal of trend is either imminent or soon to be.

Previous days like Friday (reversal candle without a preceding double wick candle and looking like a strong upward trend green candle) have usually involved another 2-4 days of continuation of trend during this years chart.

So the beer candles have spoken and point to at hopefully, at least half a week of continuation upward. If any day ends with a red candle, a bottom wick, or a double wick, your best to exit your short to mid term longs and wait for confirmation of new trend or resumption of current trend.

This has been your daily dose of uncompromising, premium, pure tasting SPX outlook.

https://www.aspris.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Heineken-330ml-scaled.jpg

---

jj9000 said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

We're in the kitchen right now and the chef is chopping.

---

OK. You got me here. Pretty funny.

I'm trying to figure out if the Beer Man is a reincarnation of our crude oil loving Farmer...or someone else.

---

Oh hell nawh brother.

I drink Michelob Ultra Infusions Lime & *****ly Pear Cactus.

XOM screaming like a wounded Comanche
>
>

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

---

I drink Michelob Ultra Infusions Lime & *****ly Pear Cactus.

---

That's not something I'd be bragging about

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

M4 is a cunning linguist of his own variety!
I wonder if heinie is mcinnis?

---

He could be one of them.

M4 Benelli said:

---

Not I, maybe it's that Barnes fellow?

---

Not a chance unless he's copying/pasting from somewhere else (which is entirely possible)

That's exactly the sort of thing that Barnes would say!

irish pete ag06 said:

---

OXY you stud... 68 resistance looks to potentially be breaking

---

Last post of the day.

I believe XOM is in a technical breakout now. I think it closes today at >$102. If it breaks $102.50, we are headed to $106. It's going to $120-ish in 2023.....fore the PE tells me so..

Oldest member of the Dow 30 got voted out for SalesForce (LOL!). XOM can't get a credit rating update either, wonder why that would be? (another laugher)

3Q earning out on 10/28 and expect a dividend increase announcement (I think 20 cents-annual). The div increase should be good for $1 to $2 per share. A special dividend would be great, but I'd rather see XOM pay down debt.

The PE's, current and forward, only indicates XOM can't be ignored anymore. Brandon and his dislike of XOM won't hold up anymore for the "politically correct". Brandon is great for oil and it sucks for this country, but make lemonade, right.

Belgium wants price caps on natgas energy now. They don't want de-industrialization....the rest of Europe is thinking this too. Price caps are bullish, it's a confession that energy is going higher.

Green energy companies need to go bankrupt. These green politicians need to be voted out. If you want renewable energy great, just don't kill us to achieve the goal within 12 months.

As for my beer choice Charismatic Megafauna, if its a nice yellow old-style beer color with flavor and smooth to drink, it wins with me.

Y'all have a good day! O&G is where it's at..

I can personally vouch for the tune below.
>
>



ETA: ExxonMobil is furnishing propane no charge for the International Balloon Fiesta in Albuquerque, Oct 5 to Oct 9. Over 600 have entered.

$3K a day reduces my wife's amazon bill.

For the record - I post this stuff to show you guys that you can do this successfully. If it makes you sad I will stop.

Definitely don't stop... show me how to do it.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

---

$3K a day reduces my wife's amazon bill.

---

It's easier to just take her credit card away.

Keep dropping nuggets for us, brother! I like this version better than your spreadsheet version because i also look at your canceled orders and stop losses and try and understand what you were up to.