ProgN said:
Just saw this at my store and gonna add a shot to my bloody Mary's and pickle spear
I gotta try these
ProgN said:
Just saw this at my store and gonna add a shot to my bloody Mary's and pickle spear
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Nov 18 420 calls are .55
I keep seeing tweets overlaying the 2008 crash with now and saying this thing's just starting, i know a lot of you guys feel the same way. I'm not that pessimistic though and we're sweating through recovering from the economic implications of covid just like we sweated through recovering from the economic implications of the financial and housing collapse.
So i overlaid the daily from 3/20/2020 to now, with the daily from 3/9/2009 to 10/4/2011 (no x-axis shenanigans) and man it lines up pretty good. By the end of october 2011 spy was up 20% before a pullback and another run taking it up 30% then resuming the bull market. Pretty sure everybody is going to deny the bottom 5 times before looking back and realizing it's behind us.
If not, whatever, it's 50 bucks
agree, I'm in Oct 10th 385'sCharismatic Megafauna said:
I got a couple expiring spy 383s, i think we gap up again
I've seen kool aid pickles... this is a first!ProgN said:
Just saw this at my store and gonna add a shot to my bloody Mary's and pickle spear
so your'e betting we get back to 410-ish area on SPY by the end of the year. The problem is we're in a downtrend since January.Brian Earl Spilner said:
Plus considering it's leveraged, the hole really isn't as big as it seems on paper. Once we bounce back to mid September level I'm already in the black.
If you don't think we bounce well beyond that before the end of the year I think you're more bearish than most.
oldarmy1 said:
Flash on 3580 had been looked for forever. I saw Mancini had it a little lower but I wanted to be buying into it just in case.
Big money set up the retail investor. CREDIT SUISSE ON THE BRINK, NUCLEAR WAR, NORTH KOREA FIRED A MISSLE.
When markets ignore news you feel is huge be a buyer.
matters not, I was simply pointing out the top. So 311 on your Q's. Same downtrend, also very bearish trend since January.Brian Earl Spilner said:
I mentioned neither 410 nor SPY.
Brian Earl Spilner said:
We're quite obviously in a bear market.
Am I betting on QQQ hitting 311 before the end of December? Yes, I am.
3785 $SPX sets up as resistance point. But these bull squeezes can take them out and trap in a hurry, so I like first Put options scaling in out to Nov 4th. Won't get as much negative decay or movement even if $SPY rallies to the 3850 area, where I'd go big.
— Freedom Costs More Than Being Concerned... (@oldarmy1) October 4, 2022
To add to this... 50% retrace (model T) from the high on pre Jackson Hole to now is 3851.71irish pete ag06 said:
The 50 is right at 4000 almost.... That seems like a great spot to be slapped back down based on previous inflection points up top.
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Am I betting on QQQ hitting 311 before the end of December? Yes, I am.
Leaked White House talking points say an OPEC oil cut would be a “total disaster” & propose threatening OPEC members.
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 4, 2022
A U.S. official said the White House is “having a spasm & panicking.”
All to avoid more domestic oil production.https://t.co/PhuMFt7jZY
Brian Earl Spilner said:
QQQ rallied 23% from 270 to 333 in a span of two months, from June to August.
It seems odd to me you don't see another much smaller bear rally being possible in the next 3 months, especially with seasonal charts very much supporting an upward trend in these months.
Only needs +16% from last week's bottom of 267, and +10% from current level.
It does seem the market just shakes off whatever J-POW says or does.irish pete ag06 said:
Honestly just trying to think ahead… this is setting up to be yet again a rally into a Fed that's getting it's feelings hurt that the stock market thinks their bluffing and they bring the hammer on rates again and send us to 3200.
I'm in this camp as well. We will have down days but I'm optimistic that this could be a reversal. 2022 has been **** and like an earlier post said, the MM were buying while sowing fear for retail, think Bill Ackman during the early days of covid. I wouldn't be loading puts at this time due to too much uncertainty. However, if the fed deviates at their next meeting and only raises .25-.50 basis points instead of their Volker rhetoric, then I think the markets will jump and FOMO will drive it higher. We'll just have to wait and see if I'm right. The fed is now taking a ton of criticism about being late to the party and now over shooting. IMO, the effects of the first .75 point increase is just now trickling down to main street and negative data now is only the beginning. I think the MM might be thinking the same. The first 3Qs have sucked so fund managers have to show results for their bonuses and not losing investors because they suck.topher06 said:
Hope we continue the rally. I made a bit of money on puts but more than offset in losses in my real accounts. That said JPow does appear to be hellbent on raising rates without seeing what the effect prior raises have on inflation, so I lean toward this being correct
techno-ag said:It does seem the market just shakes off whatever J-POW says or does.irish pete ag06 said:
Honestly just trying to think ahead… this is setting up to be yet again a rally into a Fed that's getting it's feelings hurt that the stock market thinks their bluffing and they bring the hammer on rates again and send us to 3200.
lobwedgephil said:
Y'all be careful getting too bullish, we are still in a downtrend, and counter-trend trades, carry very high risk. Keep decent stops to protect yourself. We all know everything going on in the world, we are always one headline away from a limit down. The guys who taught me to trade, are expecting much more downside. That said, you have to be able to play both directions these days. And we might be in this kind of trading environment for a while. Just look at SPY last 5 days.
https://f5s-img.s3.amazonaws.com/000/3d/6f/3d6fb5e480060cb95193b5ab78c34626f5208749_22176_u89865.jpg
I just try to help a little here and there, one of the best trading threads around thanks to OA1. I would rather we keep ripping.Heineken-Ashi said:lobwedgephil said:
Y'all be careful getting too bullish, we are still in a downtrend, and counter-trend trades, carry very high risk. Keep decent stops to protect yourself. We all know everything going on in the world, we are always one headline away from a limit down. The guys who taught me to trade, are expecting much more downside. That said, you have to be able to play both directions these days. And we might be in this kind of trading environment for a while. Just look at SPY last 5 days.
Someone has been drinking the beer candles!