ProgN said:
Just saw this at my store and gonna add a shot to my bloody Mary's and pickle spear
I gotta try these
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Last: 3 hrs ago by Swollen Thumb
I gotta try these
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Nov 18 420 calls are .55
I keep seeing tweets overlaying the 2008 crash with now and saying this thing's just starting, i know a lot of you guys feel the same way. I'm not that pessimistic though and we're sweating through recovering from the economic implications of covid just like we sweated through recovering from the economic implications of the financial and housing collapse.
So i overlaid the daily from 3/20/2020 to now, with the daily from 3/9/2009 to 10/4/2011 (no x-axis shenanigans) and man it lines up pretty good. By the end of october 2011 spy was up 20% before a pullback and another run taking it up 30% then resuming the bull market. Pretty sure everybody is going to deny the bottom 5 times before looking back and realizing it's behind us.
If not, whatever, it's 50 bucks
I ended up buying a whole bunch of these down to like .42 then realized how stupid this was, and finally trimmed the last of them today at .83
The downward channel on the daily is pretty hard to argue but October seasonality could bring us to the top of the channel before we decide if the bear market is really over.
I'm going to buy nov2 410 spy calls at the next cool off
agree, I'm in Oct 10th 385'sCharismatic Megafauna said:
I got a couple expiring spy 383s, i think we gap up again
I've seen kool aid pickles... this is a first!ProgN said:
Just saw this at my store and gonna add a shot to my bloody Mary's and pickle spear
Flash on 3580 had been looked for forever. I saw Mancini had it a little lower but I wanted to be buying into it just in case.
Big money set up the retail investor. CREDIT SUISSE ON THE BRINK, NUCLEAR WAR, NORTH KOREA FIRED A MISSLE.
When markets ignore news you feel is huge be a buyer.
Big money set up the retail investor. CREDIT SUISSE ON THE BRINK, NUCLEAR WAR, NORTH KOREA FIRED A MISSLE.
When markets ignore news you feel is huge be a buyer.
Best 2 days for the S&P 500 since March 2020.
so your'e betting we get back to 410-ish area on SPY by the end of the year. The problem is we're in a downtrend since January.Brian Earl Spilner said:
Plus considering it's leveraged, the hole really isn't as big as it seems on paper. Once we bounce back to mid September level I'm already in the black.
If you don't think we bounce well beyond that before the end of the year I think you're more bearish than most.
basically we have to get there in the next 4 or 5 weeks or the top of the downward trend is below 410. Then we'd have to break out of the downtrend, flipping this market from bear to bull or at least peak out of the trend.
You fancy program chartists run the chart on META. It's one I bought 10k shares of as it crossed $140 and every $3 lower.
I see it making a good move above $150 but if markets simply consolidate and then continue, I see it completing that cup back to $170.
I see it making a good move above $150 but if markets simply consolidate and then continue, I see it completing that cup back to $170.
I mentioned neither 410 nor SPY.
oldarmy1 said:
Flash on 3580 had been looked for forever. I saw Mancini had it a little lower but I wanted to be buying into it just in case.
Big money set up the retail investor. CREDIT SUISSE ON THE BRINK, NUCLEAR WAR, NORTH KOREA FIRED A MISSLE.
When markets ignore news you feel is huge be a buyer.
matters not, I was simply pointing out the top. So 311 on your Q's. Same downtrend, also very bearish trend since January.Brian Earl Spilner said:
I mentioned neither 410 nor SPY.
We're quite obviously in a bear market.
Am I betting on QQQ hitting 311 before the end of December? Yes, I am.
Am I betting on QQQ hitting 311 before the end of December? Yes, I am.
Brian Earl Spilner said:
We're quite obviously in a bear market.
Am I betting on QQQ hitting 311 before the end of December? Yes, I am.
QQQ rallied 23% from 270 to 333 in a span of two months, from June to August.
It seems odd to me you don't see another much smaller bear rally being possible in the next 3 months, especially with seasonal charts very much supporting an upward trend in these months.
Only needs +16% from last week's bottom of 267, and +10% from current level.
It seems odd to me you don't see another much smaller bear rally being possible in the next 3 months, especially with seasonal charts very much supporting an upward trend in these months.
Only needs +16% from last week's bottom of 267, and +10% from current level.
Looks like you layered in some 11/4 SPY puts since we rallied to 3785 at the end of the day (after your post)? And you'd go big into puts once we hit 3850? (Model T from 9/12 & 9/30 is 3851.71 as you know)
SPY 370p? 365p? 360p?
SPY 370p? 365p? 360p?
3785 $SPX sets up as resistance point. But these bull squeezes can take them out and trap in a hurry, so I like first Put options scaling in out to Nov 4th. Won't get as much negative decay or movement even if $SPY rallies to the 3850 area, where I'd go big.
— Freedom Costs More Than Being Concerned... (@oldarmy1) October 4, 2022
Good choices. And yes. However we had some fun with calls expiring tomorrow on the same thread. $1.28 in sell 25% at $1.75 ($1.73 avg), sell another 25% at $1.95 and then sold all but 10% at $2.34.
Kept 10% to balance the longer term puts.
Kept 10% to balance the longer term puts.
To add to this... 50% retrace (model T) from the high on pre Jackson Hole to now is 3851.71irish pete ag06 said:
The 50 is right at 4000 almost.... That seems like a great spot to be slapped back down based on previous inflection points up top.
So the 3850 spot is a huge one. If we get through there 3908 is huge... with the next fib right above it.
Upon further review, 4000 would be a hell of an achievement.
Good charting!
Thank you! Means a lot coming from you!
OPEC meeting tomorrow. Is that Farmer @ and his oil drum I hear in the distance???
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Brian Earl Spilner said:
Am I betting on QQQ hitting 311 before the end of December? Yes, I am.
Is that because it's got grass roots?
Leaked White House talking points say an OPEC oil cut would be a “total disaster” & propose threatening OPEC members.
— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) October 4, 2022
A U.S. official said the White House is “having a spasm & panicking.”
All to avoid more domestic oil production.https://t.co/PhuMFt7jZY
Farmer! Where are you?!
Brian Earl Spilner said:
QQQ rallied 23% from 270 to 333 in a span of two months, from June to August.
It seems odd to me you don't see another much smaller bear rally being possible in the next 3 months, especially with seasonal charts very much supporting an upward trend in these months.
Only needs +16% from last week's bottom of 267, and +10% from current level.
logic does not compute.
good luck
Bookmarked.
Honestly just trying to think ahead… this is setting up to be yet again a rally into a Fed that's getting it's feelings hurt that the stock market thinks their bluffing and they bring the hammer on rates again and send us to 3200.
Hope we continue the rally. I made a bit of money on puts but more than offset in losses in my real accounts. That said JPow does appear to be hellbent on raising rates without seeing what the effect prior raises have on inflation, so I lean toward this being correct
It does seem the market just shakes off whatever J-POW says or does.irish pete ag06 said:
Honestly just trying to think ahead… this is setting up to be yet again a rally into a Fed that's getting it's feelings hurt that the stock market thinks their bluffing and they bring the hammer on rates again and send us to 3200.
I'm in this camp as well. We will have down days but I'm optimistic that this could be a reversal. 2022 has been **** and like an earlier post said, the MM were buying while sowing fear for retail, think Bill Ackman during the early days of covid. I wouldn't be loading puts at this time due to too much uncertainty. However, if the fed deviates at their next meeting and only raises .25-.50 basis points instead of their Volker rhetoric, then I think the markets will jump and FOMO will drive it higher. We'll just have to wait and see if I'm right. The fed is now taking a ton of criticism about being late to the party and now over shooting. IMO, the effects of the first .75 point increase is just now trickling down to main street and negative data now is only the beginning. I think the MM might be thinking the same. The first 3Qs have sucked so fund managers have to show results for their bonuses and not losing investors because they suck.topher06 said:
Hope we continue the rally. I made a bit of money on puts but more than offset in losses in my real accounts. That said JPow does appear to be hellbent on raising rates without seeing what the effect prior raises have on inflation, so I lean toward this being correct
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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techno-ag said:It does seem the market just shakes off whatever J-POW says or does.irish pete ag06 said:
Honestly just trying to think ahead… this is setting up to be yet again a rally into a Fed that's getting it's feelings hurt that the stock market thinks their bluffing and they bring the hammer on rates again and send us to 3200.
Other countries reversing course or giving more stimulus boosts US markets even more as everyone is looking for safe places to allocate their money. I also wouldn't rule out an October surprise in the form of a big run or Fed concession.
Y'all be careful getting too bullish, we are still in a downtrend, and counter-trend trades, carry very high risk. Keep decent stops to protect yourself. We all know everything going on in the world, we are always one headline away from a limit down. The guys who taught me to trade, are expecting much more downside. That said, you have to be able to play both directions these days. And we might be in this kind of trading environment for a while. Just look at SPY last 5 days.
Do think we have to be in for some consolidation soon. Futures aren't ripping one way or another for now, down a little bit.
I think we peak round 10,then average thought the week
lobwedgephil said:
Y'all be careful getting too bullish, we are still in a downtrend, and counter-trend trades, carry very high risk. Keep decent stops to protect yourself. We all know everything going on in the world, we are always one headline away from a limit down. The guys who taught me to trade, are expecting much more downside. That said, you have to be able to play both directions these days. And we might be in this kind of trading environment for a while. Just look at SPY last 5 days.
https://f5s-img.s3.amazonaws.com/000/3d/6f/3d6fb5e480060cb95193b5ab78c34626f5208749_22176_u89865.jpg
Someone has been drinking the beer candles!
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
I just try to help a little here and there, one of the best trading threads around thanks to OA1. I would rather we keep ripping.Heineken-Ashi said:lobwedgephil said:
Y'all be careful getting too bullish, we are still in a downtrend, and counter-trend trades, carry very high risk. Keep decent stops to protect yourself. We all know everything going on in the world, we are always one headline away from a limit down. The guys who taught me to trade, are expecting much more downside. That said, you have to be able to play both directions these days. And we might be in this kind of trading environment for a while. Just look at SPY last 5 days.
Someone has been drinking the beer candles!
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