It's rally time today with interest rates tanking

$1400 on the day
Headed to the ranch tomorrow for guys weekend. 10 college buddies from A&M. Met in 2004 and been best friends since.

Triple_Bagger said:

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It's rally time today with interest rates tanking

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The 10-year does not seem done pushing upward. We need to see 3.50 again if there's any hope for downward relief to be underway. Otherwise, this might merely be short term relief before the next push up to 4.25.

Remember, the FED reiterated over and over their commitment to crushing inflation at any cost. 50bp is the minimum for the next raise while 75 is on the table. And the market has now been surprised (stupidly.. it's like they listen to CNBC every morning who continually tells them we've seen peak inflation and the FED is going to pause - ALWAYS WRONG) 3 times. The market will price in 75 and might even go over.

And that's not all. If the 2 year is still higher at that point, the 10 year can extend upward.

The good news is, there will be relief at some point. After the next rate increase by the FED I fully expect a 1-2Q pause, especially since crude oil prices will be exploding upward again in the coming European winter of death. The FED will have no choice but to pause and "let the market soak it in".

During that period, equities will show some strength. But I do fear winter 23/24. Lots to play out until then. Follow the beer candles. Follow the trend. Bet with the trend. When someone tells you they are going to swing at the next pitch, the only reason you throw a strike is if it's a 3-2 count in the bottom of the 9th with the bases loaded in a tie game. So unless you are about to retire and have nothing to your name but your cash equities account and have all of your chips sitting in cash with no ability to trade margin and short things, you believe them and get the easy out.

If I were me, I'd probably try to determine what happens after the oil & dollar correlation brakes. The decouple will happen.

I'm still banging on my (oil) drum all day....can y'all hear it yet?

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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If I were me, I'd probably try to determine what happens after the oil & dollar correlation brakes. The decouple will happen.

I'm still banging on my (oil) drum all day....can y'all hear it yet?

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I (Heine) ken hear it.

I'll see myself out.

If you hadn't heard, Germans took to the streets protesting green energy and wanted relations mended with Putin so Nat Gas would be available this winter....only to learn later that their pipelines were blown up. Got riots yet?

2 pipelines go down and one comes up - all on the same day. As they say, timing is everything!

Greenies are pretty serious about sticking to the plan, but I think Putin will destroy the NWO all by himself.

Go XOM!

<rim shot>

Prayers for all of our folks in South West Florida today. Watching a live weather feed right now of Hurricane Ian making landfall. Going to be a rough next 24 hours for that state. And then recovery long after.