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BaylorSpineGuy
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4:10p, 9/22/22
Market dumps at end of day? No one ever states that it's the "longs" covering.

Only short covering rallies, not long-covering dumps.

Just sayin'….
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BlueTaze
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4:17p, 9/22/22
I assume he means June not May. Interesting juncture...

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irish pete ag06
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4:41p, 9/22/22
AG
Wanna see something crazy...


$500 DCA'ed into TQQQ from it's inception to now.



By no means am I suggesting anyone should do this. Just thought that was a wild chart.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 4:50p, 9/22/22
irish pete ag06 said:
Wanna see something crazy...


$500 DCA'ed into TQQQ from it's inception to now.



By no means am I suggesting anyone should do this. Just thought that was a wild chart.


Incredible power of leverage in a bull market! Will be curious to see this a year from now.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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4:51p, 9/22/22
AG
I think now is a time to have a cash based strategy. Invest in clear uptrend, sell when uptrend breaks. Wait for next move.
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Philip J Fry
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5:04p, 9/22/22
AG
Really hard when it's so choppy. Almost have to buy/sell at the end of each day. The last run up was wiped out with a single red candle.
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BlueTaze
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5:12p, 9/22/22
I think I am going to read this Adam Mancini quote each time before day trading SPY.

Quote:
As a trader, the goal is not to catch every move, nor is it to catch the entirety of every move. If I can catch a piece of 1 or 2 moves a day that correspond with one of my setups, I am more than happy. Trying to catch everything leads to FOMO, and losses - market is moving all day every day, and there will always be another trade.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 5:13p, 9/22/22
Bob Knights Liver said:
SAVA finished above $50. A decent amount of $35-$50 calls would close in the money tomorrow if it holds. It'll be interesting for sure. Like I said, I don't think it's likely to move too far out of the $50-55 range without some other good news. But I've been wrong before!


SAVA.....continues the dance tomorrow






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BaylorSpineGuy
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5:34p, 9/22/22
COST posted a double beat and promptly went down 12 pts. Pricy stock but always watch this one closely.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 6:00p, 9/22/22
AG
wow, skills. I wonder if they translate to the... okay nevermind, haha
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irish pete ag06
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6:02p, 9/22/22
AG


Sorry if this was posted. Made me lol
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 6:03p, 9/22/22
irish pete ag06 said:


Sorry if this was posted. Made me lol


Careful posting this. We don't Prog to develop an aneurysm.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 6:05p, 9/22/22
The fact that we have a Congressman openly pushing against energy with no viable alternative is disgusting to me.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 6:26p, 9/22/22
Bob Knights Liver said:
The fact that we have a Congressman openly pushing against energy with no viable alternative is disgusting to me.


I lived in Michigan for several years: Grosse Pointe and Ann Arbor. Very familiar with the Dearborn area. She very well may be the least talented person in that district. They could do so much better than her.
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AgOutsideAustin
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 6:42p, 9/22/22
AG
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Bob Knights Liver said:
SAVA finished above $50. A decent amount of $35-$50 calls would close in the money tomorrow if it holds. It'll be interesting for sure. Like I said, I don't think it's likely to move too far out of the $50-55 range without some other good news. But I've been wrong before!


SAVA.....continues the dance tomorrow








That one likes to ride I guarantee ya.
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Ag CPA
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 6:58p, 9/22/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
COST posted a double beat and promptly went down 12 pts. Pricy stock but always watch this one closely.


I think that they also warned on increasing vendor and labor costs.
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irish pete ag06
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7:44p, 9/22/22
AG
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FJ43
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7:57p, 9/22/22

Possible one for y'all to set some alerts on.

VALE

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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8:51p, 9/22/22

Don't know about yall but I want to see capitulation and fear move so I can get my damn money in.

Don't get me wrong I'm having a blast trading but enough is enough.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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ranchag04
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:59p, 9/22/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Bob Knights Liver said:
The fact that we have a Congressman openly pushing against energy with no viable alternative is disgusting to me.


I lived in Michigan for several years: Grosse Pointe and Ann Arbor. Very familiar with the Dearborn area. She very well may be the least talented person in that district. They could do so much better than her.


She very well may be the least talented person in the country.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to FJ43 • 9:16p, 9/22/22
Unfortunately, I don't think we are that close. Lol but I'm loaded to the gills in puts in case this thing wants to hurl tomorrow!
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to FJ43 • 9:18p, 9/22/22
I've started moving back in stocks in my long-term account. I don't think this is the bottom necessarily, but it's enough for me to start locking in incremental shares earned in this downturn.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:27p, 9/22/22
AG
I'm on my tablet, so can't post pictures (too lazy to move from PNG to JPG. Side note to staff: can't you allow PNG?).

I spent some time looking at the weekly chart for the S&P. We had an 8/21 weekly EMA cross in January, and here we are 8-9 months later. I was looking for comparable situations and we haven't had a prolonged 8/21 cross like this since the 2007-2009 one. It was November 2007 to May 2009. For all of the other ones in between, there has been climatic action to end it. This wasn't true in the financial crisis. It mostly just grinded its way down with that waterfall in September - October 2008. The taper tantrum, the end of the Obama administration, and Covid all had quick, big moves. I don't think we will go down as much percentage wise as we did then.

The conditions that were true for the last 40 years, though, have changed. We could face a Japan like situation where there may need to be a correction in time vs. price while all of the inflation and interest rate stuff plays out. That could be years of range bound action. You'd want to find out performers or be a dividend hustler in those conditions.

I kind of think the highest the near-term low could be is 3600. I don't know. The market will tell us when it has bottomed. Just projecting a guess, I think we don't bottom out until Q1.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:36p, 9/22/22
One of my patients is a lady who used to do some regulatory options stuff for JPM insiders. Approving and reviewing stock trades from some of the higher ups in the DFW area.

She said something similar recently. She felt like the market may dip as it is now, but felt like it would grind it out through Xmas and dump in January or February. I still think we take this leg down a bit farther maybe mid 3500's over next 2 weeks then rally towards Xmas.

I read somewhere tonight that next week is typically the most bearish week of the year in the S&P.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:54p, 9/22/22
AG
basically what Mancini is saying we test soon...

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D-Fens
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In reply to FJ43 • 10:36p, 9/22/22
I dont post here but....Man I really struggle with the big picture here. Yeah we all see the TA, trendline break, June retest, capitulation near term....but then what?

Housing crash and debt heavy balance sheet ch11 bankruptcies wouldn't hit fan till late 23' or 24'. So are we expecting a near-term bottom, then rally to new highs, then the real economy stock market crash?

Or do we think the logistical supply chain issues rebalance and Fed can then pivot and inflation is solved with a "soft landing"? Powell body slams inflation expectations and its over?
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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10:59p, 9/22/22
Two thoughts on how low can we go:

1) Remember that these are inflated dollars we are pricing SPX with. If we take end of year 2019 prices around $3300 and apply two years of 10% inflation, though many think it's significantly higher than that, it would be $4000. Our economy is worse, but how much worse? If we look at it from a P/E ratio standpoint, we are just under 23, which is back to in line of where we'd been for a few years before COVID.. Taking it down to the worst month of 2018/2019 would get us to $3300.

2) I think we will get into "where else are you going to put your money" situation. Once the market stops going down people won't want to sit outside with cash and watch high inflation cut them. Bonds and foreign stocks will be just as bad, if not worse. Real estate will likely go through an unstable period. At some point just sticking your money back in US stocks is the easiest thing for people to do. So buyers will come back.

I think we're likely to test June lows and it wouldn't surprise me to see 3500 again, but I don't think we'll get substantially lower on a percentage basis.
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sts7049
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4:23a, 9/23/22
AG
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FJ43
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 4:23a, 9/23/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Unfortunately, I don't think we are that close. Lol but I'm loaded to the gills in puts in case this thing wants to hurl tomorrow!
I don't think we have seen a low yet. I suspect we have more of the same grind through midterms and into 1st qtr. SPX 3505 (3505.24) looks to me to be a magnet. How quick who knows. Grind, micro rally, sell, rinse and repeat. Capitulation at some point. Hard to go nuclear short here. But also hard to go long here IMO.

Long term investors Im with 30k. Dividend hunting value, deploy option strategies on shares, etc., etc.. If you're a 401k person youre dollar cost averaging over time with monthly flows. I am not. I work to avoid drawdown. If you can be active follow OA on Twitter. He is working the system like a rib. He's a Pro so soak it in.

Im largely cash and trading this market and have been since the last 420s mark. Managing longs per the above. Most charts look like trash so not grabbing my rabbits foot for good luck and a ouija board to predict the future. Cash is a position.

I actively trade and am not passive. Cash flow small weekly gains and managing risk. Alerts are your friend.



Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to FJ43 • 4:40a, 9/23/22
Love it. You've been nails as always. I've got plenty of cash on sidelines but have felt this is a good time to be a Bear, so I went short yesterday with a sizable position dated out to 10/14. Didn't time the position well (clinic!) but felt more confident with that nasty close.

Should be green this morning and will trim as the charts move but next week is historically most bearish week.

Your 3505 is just about Model T from COVID low to ATH, no?
If so, that's the destination. Maybe a spot bounce there back the 3850, then cycle down like you describe.

What convinces that capitulation is far away is that I bought AAPL in March 2021 for $120ish, and we are nowhere close to that. And that wasn't even the bottom.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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6:24a, 9/23/22
Sounding super bearish on Bloomberg this morning. Even discussing if "bearish is bullish" literally as I type.

Careful treading but don't fight the Fed!

Britain spiraling today.

Let's make money!!
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$30,000 Millionaire
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6:27a, 9/23/22
AG
This looks like climatic action.


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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 6:29a, 9/23/22
Yep. There were like 3 red waterfall days in June. Could play out similarly. Next week is a big red week by history.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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6:44a, 9/23/22
AG
Normally you can blindly buy calls when you get to this point and it will work out for you within 2-3 days.

I'm not going to though. We could see a new yearly low today.
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59 South
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7:05a, 9/23/22
AG
So here's what I got... green lines are decades long trends, thin orange one down around 3000 is bottom tick 2009 / 2020 trend.

If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!

Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
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