Towns03 said:
I'm going to ask the dumb question: what will the shutdowns do for stock price??
Not a dumb question. The current Administration wants you to believe there is a crude and refined products inventory larger than the 7 Seas. It's all artificial. To quote my favorite, "It's fake". The SPR releases of crude are being used to suppress gasoline prices at the pump until Mid-Terms Elections are over. So, why do we need to have SPR releases if there is so much inventory across the globe? Because there's not the perceived inventory available that they would like you to believe there is. So, shut down the refinery and let's see who is telling the truth - if there's a lot of inventory, no problem price stays level. But, if there really is no inventory, the price moves upward. Just means market stays supportive to WTI and refined products while XOM continues to print money and hold value. That's what it means for the stock.
Further,...
XOM, check the PE, XOM will pump out $14 earnings per share, has $60 billion FCF, pays a div, will likely increase the div in Oct, the 2023 forward pe 7 with $10 earnings per share from the same experts projecting $100 WTI barrel for 2023??? We haven't sustained $100 WTI in 2022 and XOM is going to crank out $14 earnings per share?...and those forward projections are legit? C'mon man!.. Breakeven at $41 per barrel. Who's kidding who? Is XOM undervalued - damn straight it is. And, before someone states, during a recession energy will come down due to slack demand. Well,....you better pray for slack demand, because energy sector has not invested/spent CAPEX in last 3 years to keep up with basic projected demand - they ain't gonna catch up either. OPEC+ is not coming to the rescue, they can't hit a single self imposed quota and throttle back production equal to the SPR releases. Saudi is no fool, they want $80 barrel floor, but want a $90 to $110 range. You can shear sheep every year, but you can only skin'em once. Saudi don't want to skin us, they just want to shear us. U.S. Big Oil told Europe last week they cannot help them. Got Energy?...and check the fridge for milk..
