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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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PWestAg18 said:

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

If you're keeping score at home. An XOM refinery in France shut down yesterday/today....workers went on strike! Heck yeah! And the European hits keep on coming! You ain't seen nothing yet! (you know, that should be a line in a song..) Farmers Almanac states a long & cold winter this year across the globe. What does Farmer know? See what I did there?


Could it get started already? Sick of this heat here in Texas
Okay. Hover over the "Red X" just above South America. There's a chance for a hurricane in the Gulf from this storm. I'm trying to get you a weather change. I'm trying to get me a refinery(ies) shut down. GO XOM!!!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Chef Elko
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AG
How do we run OldArmy1 put/call strategy if we are poor? Go further OTM if we can't do 100 shares?
Towns03
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AG
I'm going to ask the dumb question: what will the shutdowns do for stock price??
SoTXAg09
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Danwell Home said:

How do we run OldArmy1 put/call strategy if we are poor? Go further OTM if we can't do 100 shares?

Gotta find your own lower priced stocks.
Red Red Wine
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$SAVA covered call question (on half my shares):

$60Call paying $3 expire 9/30/22

$80Call paying $6 expire 1/20/23

Or sell no covered calls at all.


I got burned on CLOV covered calls when it got squeezed for a day or two last year.

Just wondering what the more experienced options traders would do with something like this.

EDIT: Thanks, BKL
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I'm actively trying to sell my call spreads - anything with an expiry sooner than Jan 2024 and an upper leg over $50. I have no clue where this is going, but it could easily fit right back into that $50-55 range until P3 results are released. How that relates to your situation - I think it's wise to take some profits off of this up move. I don't think we get back above $100 without actual good news or results, but crazier things have happened. Maybe sell CC on 1/2 or 1/4 of your shares today and wait to see what next week brings?

Those Jan2023 $40/$50 call spreads I bought for $0.07 are looking very nice right now. Very, very nice.
irish pete ag06
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ME TOO. MY FIRST 10 BAGGER.

The wrong way.
Red Red Wine
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Ask me someday when I'm drunk about Linn Energy.


Ugggghhhhh....
I bleed maroon
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AG
You may want to consider buying protective puts. Well out of the money. Works like cheap insurance against a significant decline, and your shares won't be called away if the stock continues to rise.
Triple_Bagger
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SAVA is tough because it could go to $100 or $30 by next week. Neither of the options you listed would interest me because the premium is too low for what you might give up. The further dated option will take longer to drop if the stock price drops, so you'll be holding that for a while.

I haven't sold any CCs on this run up but I am looking at puts to lock in profits. That way if it goes crazy I don't have a ceiling on my shares, but if it goes back to $20-$30 I'll still have profits from this run up.

If you do sell a CC, I wouldn't go out too far and I'd buy a call with a higher strike price, just in case it goes crazy
Red Red Wine
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AG
Thanks everyone.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Towns03 said:

I'm going to ask the dumb question: what will the shutdowns do for stock price??
Not a dumb question. The current Administration wants you to believe there is a crude and refined products inventory larger than the 7 Seas. It's all artificial. To quote my favorite, "It's fake". The SPR releases of crude are being used to suppress gasoline prices at the pump until Mid-Terms Elections are over. So, why do we need to have SPR releases if there is so much inventory across the globe? Because there's not the perceived inventory available that they would like you to believe there is. So, shut down the refinery and let's see who is telling the truth - if there's a lot of inventory, no problem price stays level. But, if there really is no inventory, the price moves upward. Just means market stays supportive to WTI and refined products while XOM continues to print money and hold value. That's what it means for the stock.

Further,...

XOM, check the PE, XOM will pump out $14 earnings per share, has $60 billion FCF, pays a div, will likely increase the div in Oct, the 2023 forward pe 7 with $10 earnings per share from the same experts projecting $100 WTI barrel for 2023??? We haven't sustained $100 WTI in 2022 and XOM is going to crank out $14 earnings per share?...and those forward projections are legit? C'mon man!.. Breakeven at $41 per barrel. Who's kidding who? Is XOM undervalued - damn straight it is. And, before someone states, during a recession energy will come down due to slack demand. Well,....you better pray for slack demand, because energy sector has not invested/spent CAPEX in last 3 years to keep up with basic projected demand - they ain't gonna catch up either. OPEC+ is not coming to the rescue, they can't hit a single self imposed quota and throttle back production equal to the SPR releases. Saudi is no fool, they want $80 barrel floor, but want a $90 to $110 range. You can shear sheep every year, but you can only skin'em once. Saudi don't want to skin us, they just want to shear us. U.S. Big Oil told Europe last week they cannot help them. Got Energy?...and check the fridge for milk..
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Last one. Y'all have a great day. 39 degrees this morning here at the house. Winter is coming! German's are scared _hitless.

And,...another European hit.

Yep. Go ahead and cap that energy price to the citizens and let's see you pays for it in the end..

Of course government will run these operations more efficiently!

Get long energy.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/France-Prepares-To-Nationalize-Its-Struggling-Nuclear-Industry.html
irish pete ag06
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AG
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Last one. Y'all have a great day. 39 degrees this morning here at the house. Winter is coming! German's are scared _hitless.

And,...another European hit.

Yep. Go ahead and cap that energy price to the citizens and let's see you pays for it in the end..

Of course government will run these operations more efficiently!

Get long energy.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/France-Prepares-To-Nationalize-Its-Struggling-Nuclear-Industry.html
Farmer, what are your thoughts on OXY in this sector?
Bnels1323
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AG
Are you located in Germany? I am curious if you are getting a first-hand account of this.
Ag CPA
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Red Red Wine said:

Ask me someday when I'm drunk about Linn Energy.


Ugggghhhhh....
Ha, me too. Just couldn't look away from the dividend…
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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irish pete ag06 said:

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Last one. Y'all have a great day. 39 degrees this morning here at the house. Winter is coming! German's are scared _hitless.

And,...another European hit.

Yep. Go ahead and cap that energy price to the citizens and let's see you pays for it in the end..

Of course government will run these operations more efficiently!

Get long energy.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/France-Prepares-To-Nationalize-Its-Struggling-Nuclear-Industry.html
Farmer, what are your thoughts on OXY in this sector?
I don't track OXY close. Obviously it has had a great run. I see no reason for it to stop. I'd buy a dip and hold it. I don't see why the majors can't put on another $15 to $20 per share between now and June 2023, JMO.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Bnels1323 said:

Are you located in Germany? I am curious if you are getting a first-hand account of this.
I live in the U.S. I track/watch/read everything I can about what is happening there.
FJ43
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Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Dysfunctional-Futures-Market-May-Lead-To-Sharp-Energy-Price-Swings.html

Make of the above what you will. These governments and regulators wouldn't be trying to control in energy everything if everything was hunky-dory. The _sshole pucker is at negative pressure gradient and about to lose the vacuum. But hey, everything is fine..
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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SAVA.....doin' the dance..







Mom says I have to go.

Bye y'all.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Chop chop chop today. Painful. Pay me already!

I cut my protective call.
BaylorSpineGuy
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F'ing Fidelity. Freezes at the worst damn times.
Brian Earl Spilner
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We finishing green?
wanderer
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Finishing at 3770 cause it's resistance level and cause I have a fly pinned there.
Philip J Fry
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**** this market. Put a limit in case it crashed through the resistance at 3740. Sure enough, it dipped below that, cashed me out and proceeded to gain the rest of the day.
Triple_Bagger
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

We finishing green?
you jinxed it!
sts7049
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wanderer said:

Finishing at 3770 cause it's resistance level and cause I have a fly pinned there.
what a call
wanderer
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Looked decent until that last minute candle
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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SAVA finished above $50. A decent amount of $35-$50 calls would close in the money tomorrow if it holds. It'll be interesting for sure. Like I said, I don't think it's likely to move too far out of the $50-55 range without some other good news. But I've been wrong before!
wanderer
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Wouldn't give me that much credit, SPX was just at 3780 when I posted that.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Bob Knights Liver said:

SAVA finished above $50. A decent amount of $35-$50 calls would close in the money tomorrow if it holds. It'll be interesting for sure. Like I said, I don't think it's likely to move too far out of the $50-55 range without some other good news. But I've been wrong before!

Someone slapped the ask near close and paid 9.1 for a 1/19/2024 150c
Now I'm kinda glad my sell order on that spread didn't fill
Brewmaster
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

Bob Knights Liver said:

SAVA finished above $50. A decent amount of $35-$50 calls would close in the money tomorrow if it holds. It'll be interesting for sure. Like I said, I don't think it's likely to move too far out of the $50-55 range without some other good news. But I've been wrong before!

Someone slapped the ask near close and paid 9.1 for a 1/19/2024 150c
Now I'm kinda glad my sell order on that spread didn't fill
big order or we talking some degen?
Brian Earl Spilner
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Triple_Bagger said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

We finishing green?
you jinxed it!


Charismatic Megafauna
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I suppose it could have been a degen who just has to have a 2024 leap and the cheapest one was almost a grand? Not sure i can tell volume at a given price on options?
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