Are you all expecting the market to react in the early morning hours or wait until after the fed meeting?
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It may react in the morning... but nearly every time the first move is a fake out.Bnels1323 said:
Are you all expecting the market to react in the early morning hours or wait until after the fed meeting?
My guess is Fed meeting. Usually trades sideways for the hour before the meeting.
Pros might take a deep OTM SPX call and put 0 DTE. Would be big risk but it usually moves quickly in both directions and if timed well, can bank. I don't think I can pull it off tho.
Pros might take a deep OTM SPX call and put 0 DTE. Would be big risk but it usually moves quickly in both directions and if timed well, can bank. I don't think I can pull it off tho.
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irish pete ag06 said:It may react in the morning... but nearly every time the first move is a fake out.Bnels1323 said:
Are you all expecting the market to react in the early morning hours or wait until after the fed meeting?
This x1000! There will likely be tons of failed setups and crushing reversals tomorrow morning. That or extreme low volume slow climb. Even after the rate hikes is confirmed there is likely to be wild swings as the market digests all of the implications.
You don't have to trade every day you know.
BaylorSpineGuy said:
My guess is Fed meeting. Usually trades sideways for the hour before the meeting.
Pros might take a deep OTM SPX call and put 0 DTE. Would be big risk but it usually moves quickly in both directions and if timed well, can bank. I don't think I can pull it off tho.
Pros will wait for direction or will sit out while the machines battle each other.
This!$30,000 Millionaire said:
You don't have to trade every day you know.
"It's better to not play the game. How about a nice game of chess?"
Only the olds will know where that quote is from.
Quote is actually "The only winning move is not to play." Great movie! (And I'm not an old hah)
Impressive and you're correct sir.
Aren't we all old as hell here now? Do we have any youngsters?
ProgN said:This!$30,000 Millionaire said:
You don't have to trade every day you know.
"It's better to not play the game. How about a nice game of chess?"
Only the olds will know where that quote is from.
So old he doesn't remember the exact quote.
Buck Compton said:
Quote is actually "The only winning move is not to play." Great movie! (And I'm not an old hah)
Once Upon a Crime? A fantastic film and one of my favs!
Or you're referring to WarGames?
Putin declared partial mobilization to get half of the catalysts set in motion early.
Now will Powell settle for partial "mobilization" his own self?
Now will Powell settle for partial "mobilization" his own self?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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M4 Benelli said:
Putin declared partial mobilization to get half of the catalysts set in motion early.
Now will Powell settle for partial "mobilization" his own self?
...and Brandon drained 1/3 of the SPR for votes, this will come back to bite us. XOM and CVX up nicely this morn. Europe,...what a mess and it's just starting. Have a great trading day and make a bunch of money. Better think-inside-the-box today. It's always safer to think inside the box. You dont get head blown off thinking inside the box.
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Folks, gas prices are now back to levels they were at in early March.
— President Biden (@POTUS) September 20, 2022
That means nearly all of the increases since the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine have been wiped out.
Posted to watch Farmer's head explode. I do think we'll see those oil prices spike this winter when demand for heating oil rises plus we stop adding to the supply from our reserves.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Last one for the day. They need oil & gas to come down in price "to fight inflation". SPR mismanagement management can only go so far. Last night I would have bet 75 point move today. This morning I'm leaning to 100 point move today. Europe and U.S. went all in on Green Energy Steal and now they're getting margin calls from Russia and OPEC. U.S. Big Oil got banished to the corner in time-out for a low ESG score. Short sanity and Long insanity only yields volatile chaos. GOOGL, sub 100, anyone?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Dude,...you're not nice.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:M4 Benelli said:
Putin declared partial mobilization to get half of the catalysts set in motion early.
Now will Powell settle for partial "mobilization" his own self?
...and Brandon drained 1/3 of the SPR for votes, this will come back to bite us. XOM and CVX up nicely this morn. Europe,...what a mess and it's just starting. Have a great trading day and make a bunch of money. Better think-inside-the-box today. It's always safer to think inside the box. You dont get head blown off thinking inside the box.
He also drained the bath tub of leg hair evidence after showering with Ashley. But that's neither here nor there. Not trying to be political. :X
Edit- OT, been accumulating GOOGL at these lows, will buy more at sub 100 and try to sleep easy at night.
President poopy pants now needs to explain diesel and jet aviation fuel prices.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Last one for the day. They need oil & gas to come down in price "to fight inflation". SPR mismanagement management can only go so far. Last night I would have bet 75 point move today. This morning I'm leaning to 100 point move today. Europe and U.S. went all in on Green Energy Steal and now they're getting margin calls from Russia and OPEC. U.S. Big Oil got banished to the corner in time-out for a low ESG score. Short sanity and Long insanity only yields volatile chaos. GOOGL, sub 100, anyone?
Energy is something like 9% of CPI if I recall. Gas certainly down but LNG and electricity are up.
Rent/home price contributes very heavily. Inflation may become a secular trend and not easily reversed. Not sure what percentage rent is in CPI calculation but it continues to climb, although seemingly at a slower pace for now.
Redfin Reports Asking Rents Climb 11% in Aug, the Smallest Gain in a Yr
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 21, 2022
Redfin: Rent Growth Is Likely to Keep Slowing as Rising Interest Rates Continue to Cool the Economy
Redfin: National Median Asking Rent Was Up 11% Yr Over Yr to $2,039
I know Prog is a fan of SE, so just passing along.
$SE Insider Files to Sell $16.6M in Stock
— Kaushik (@BigBullCap) September 21, 2022
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Only 9% directly. However it is a massive piece related to costs of goods. Goods and end products have to be delivered, materials have to be delivered, it takes energy to manufacture, energy for offices and retail, etc., etc. By artificially holding energy prices down they've been artificially holding inflation down. We'll feel the full force of that late this year, coincidentally just after mid terms.
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Couldn't help myself.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Dude,...you're not nice.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Futures up slightly even after the number is out, we still won't have a direction, IMO. The comments, specifically what peak rate the Fed is targeting and when, will matter as much or more than how much they raise now. I am not trading today at all and have nothing open in my trading account.
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You're good people. Just jackin back with ya. Crew sayin get off the phone. Later
Overnight futures dipped on the Putin speech, but quickly recovered. I wonder if that geopolitical nuke threat reduces the chances FOMC does a 100pt hike. Perhaps Putin escalation spooks demand enough for Powell to continue the tough talk aimed towards inflation expectation mgmt vs tough action to crash markets. I think 100 was unlikely and now very unlikely.
ITUB has been popping up on my radar, some call option activity as well.
We're all gonna be millionaires!
#inflation
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) September 21, 2022
“So what, we’ll just print more money”
Dan Aykroyd on SNL (1978)
pic.twitter.com/xUvN6l9gQG
He's bullish again, talked to a bunch of Twitter guys at Dreamforce looking for jobs so he's determined that the labor shortage has reversed and inflation has been solved.BlueTaze said:BlueTaze said:$30,000 Millionaire said:
New lows coming. Cramer just said we would end the year well.
We do end year well, but after Cramer capitulates in the 3800 range, sells his longs, and reverses his prediction to year end doom.
So Cramer is now super bearish. Says more downside to come due to aggressive fed and corporate media fud.
TQQQ with some big swings already this morning.
I just personally prefer to sit out these days.
Do you guys actually believe that people with significant skin in the game don't have ways of knowing what the FOMC announcements will be before they're made? I'm sure those FOMC guys make pretty good money, but a clerk for a liberal justice leaked a supreme court decision with the intent of threatening violence against supreme court justices and there were no repercussions... can't imagine someone wouldn't leak something less impactful with money as an incentive.
topher06 said:
Do you guys actually believe that people with significant skin in the game don't have ways of knowing what the FOMC announcements will be before they're made? I'm sure those FOMC guys make pretty good money, but a clerk for a liberal justice leaked a supreme court decision with the intent of threatening violence against supreme court justices and there were no repercussions... can't imagine someone wouldn't leak something less impactful with money as an incentive.
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