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ProgN
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New British PM Liz Truss announces a cap on energy bills to combat cost-of-living crisis

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/08/british-pm-liz-truss-announces-a-cap-on-energy-bills.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
BaylorSpineGuy
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Doubt it moves the markets much, but the Queen of England sounds extremely ill, and her family is apparently nearby. This sounds significant.

People on Bloomberg talking like she's already passed. Wow.
topher06
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Yeah that sucks for her as a person and for her family, but does she have any actual power or impact other than as a figurehead. I don't know much about whether the "royals" actually matter beyond women enjoying talking about them
Ragoo
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They are a tourist attraction for London.
AgCPA95
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Any time the Queen is mentioned I can't help think of scenes from Naked Gun.

topher06
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So it could have an economic impact. Don't worry, I'm sure Megan Markel will let the family grieve and will not try to make this about herself.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Rdr on crwd yesterday? Green pre

Clf green pre as well...me and tuberville finna get paid!
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I feel for Truss. Crappy situation. She is using a sensible approach. Taking the correct steps if they actually take them. The freezing of the consumers heating bill, that's the goofy one. Their gas and electricity suppliers for the country have no cap, someone will pay the difference. That someone will be the citizens in higher taxes or printing of money to cause inflation or both. That's why in my last post I stated they'll be paying for this over the next 10 years. You can cap a price to everybody; however, when the rest of the market has no cap, the difference will get paid at some point.

Monday it appears there was over 1.5 Trillion in margin calls due from EU energy companies that supply power to people. EU focus is an emergency package to keep these companies in business and not filing bankruptcy.

The French should make it through this winter pretty well because they didnt decommission the nuclear power plants but the French are operating them at under capacity and cant seem to get their act together heading to winter.

Germany, this is such a sad laugh. They are screwed unless russia extends an act of mercy. Cold showers, line dried clothes, no hot water in public settings sans schools and hospitals and the list goes on. Russia supplied Germany NatGas to a point where electricity was costing them $0.04/kwh and it's now $1.00/kWh. German manufacturing can not compete now and manufacturing companies are shutting, steel, fertilizer, etc. Autos appear next in line. Nat Gas storage is somewhere between 60 to 80 percent filled. At 85% they think they can get 2.5 months use. The G7 said no Russian price caps until Dec 5th. Add 2.5 months to Dec 5th and that gets you through most of winter. That assumes the Russians are sending gas in the pipe from Sep 8th to Dec 4th...and they're not. This one is a complete disaster. Putin is going to turn the valve off sooner than later.

The European Union may become the European Separatist.

Crude....EIA report comes out today (typically Wed, but delayed due to Holiday). API yesterday showed a build. Analysts expected a draw. But, as I have been preaching, subtract the SPR release and it's a draw. Again SPR releases stop in Oct. The manipulators can trash crude all they want but come October theres no where to hide. By then I'm sure the media will explain the S&D and how the SPR releases weren't sustainable. Brandon's Administration will see that America gets it's fair share of energy crisis. WTI:XOM spread is usually +/- $2 to $3, yesterday it widened to $14. Cvx:XOM spread is approx $66. Yesterday $60. All bodes well for XOM and shows a disconnection because it's a stronger play. Dems appear set to suppress crude to the elections and gas price at the pumps will be cheap. November forward gasoline prices should rise based on crude and no SPR releases to artificially keep a lid on prices. Nat Gas supplies here in US are adequate, about 10% less than a year ago at this time. Freeport being down is backing up supply. Analysts state Freeport to be at 100% export capacity by end of Nov. NatGas coming down in price only because we cant get it out of this country and ship to EU.
Spoony Love
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AG
That's some good solid info there. Keep posting here because it seems to make more sense when you do. Thanks.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

I feel for Truss. Crappy situation. She is using a sensible approach. Taking the correct steps if they actually take them. The freezing of the consumers heating bill, that's the goofy one. Their gas and electricity suppliers for the country have no cap, someone will pay the difference. That someone will be the citizens in higher taxes or printing of money to cause inflation or both. That's why in my last post I stated they'll be paying for this over the next 10 years. You can cap a price to everybody; however, when the rest of the market has no cap, the difference will get paid at some point.

Monday it appears there was over 1.5 Trillion in margin calls due from EU energy companies that supply power to people. EU focus is an emergency package to keep these companies in business and not filing bankruptcy.

The French should make it through this winter pretty well because they didnt decommission the nuclear power plants but the French are operating them at under capacity and cant seem to get their act together heading to winter.

Germany, this is such a sad laugh. They are screwed unless russia extends an act of mercy. Cold showers, line dried clothes, no hot water in public settings sans schools and hospitals and the list goes on. Russia supplied Germany NatGas to a point where electricity was costing them $0.04/kwh and it's now $1.00/kWh. German manufacturing can not compete now and manufacturing companies are shutting, steel, fertilizer, etc. Autos appear next in line. Nat Gas storage is somewhere between 60 to 80 percent filled. At 85% they think they can get 2.5 months use. The G7 said no Russian price caps until Dec 5th. Add 2.5 months to Dec 5th and that gets you through most of winter. That assumes the Russians are sending gas in the pipe from Sep 8th to Dec 4th...and they're not. This one is a complete disaster. Putin is going to turn the valve off sooner than later.

The European Union may become the European Separatist.

Crude....EIA report comes out today (typically Wed, but delayed due to Holiday). API yesterday showed a build. Analysts expected a draw. But, as I have been preaching, subtract the SPR release and it's a draw. Again SPR releases stop in Oct. The manipulators can trash crude all they want but come October theres no where to hide. By then I'm sure the media will explain the S&D and how the SPR releases weren't sustainable. Brandon's Administration will see that America gets it's fair share of energy crisis. WTI:XOM spread is usually +/- $2 to $3, yesterday it widened to $14. Cvx:XOM spread is approx $66. Yesterday $60. All bodes well for XOM and shows a disconnection because it's a stronger play. Dems appear set to suppress crude to the elections and gas price at the pumps will be cheap. November forward gasoline prices should rise based on crude and no SPR releases to artificially keep a lid on prices. Nat Gas supplies here in US are adequate, about 10% less than a year ago at this time. Freeport being down is backing up supply. Analysts state Freeport to be at 100% export capacity by end of Nov. NatGas coming down in price only because we cant get it out of this country and ship to EU.
I kept trying to explain to my pops why XOM was a better trade than CVX and he wasn't buying it (my info or XOM) but I think time will tell.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Here's a Talking Alpha article that is good XOM info.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539137-exxon-mobil-russia-sanctions-create-a-gold-mine?mailingid=28974104&messageid=must_reads&serial=28974104.1257368&source=email_must_reads&utm_campaign=Must+Read+September+7%2C+2022&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads
$30,000 Millionaire
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

Doubt it moves the markets much, but the Queen of England sounds extremely ill, and her family is apparently nearby. This sounds significant.

People on Bloomberg talking like she's already passed. Wow.


They're wearing black. She's dead.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
59 South
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:


The European Union may become the European Separatist.

You sir, are a complete gem. Farmer delivers once again - makes sense all around.

On the bolded part... can't find the link right now, but Spain a while back came out publicly against the Germans basically saying they made their own bed, and Spain would not be bailing them out in the name of unity. It may be a few decades, but I suspect the EU will die a slow death eventually, likely due to energy policy differences - and egos of course.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

BaylorSpineGuy said:

Doubt it moves the markets much, but the Queen of England sounds extremely ill, and her family is apparently nearby. This sounds significant.

People on Bloomberg talking like she's already passed. Wow.


They're wearing black. She's dead.
Sky News is certainly pointing out that its super unusual for all the royals to be rushing to the queen's bedside like this....
topher06
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Stopped out on my puts on that pop back up on SPY, now fully on team long (but not holding my breath on the day).
BaylorSpineGuy
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Anyone follow or have any FSLR? First Solar.

This stock is on a tear and has doubled in under 3 months. Looks extended now but curious to know more about this.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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That was a crazy drop in VIX compared to relatively minor move in SPX. Were OTM puts closed or were offsetting OTM calls opened?
$30,000 Millionaire
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No more time for trading but we gap filled and are now rejecting. We go below 3950 and this is puking.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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That reversal to the upside on SPX happened close to the model T from yesterday's range. Bulls need continuation above yesterday's high. Even an inside day feels bearish to me.
topher06
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Feels like this is about to go down but put premium is intense and I'm very biased towards wanting stonks/up.

EDIT: Well I suck, but happy
Golf1
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AG

wanderer
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BTU popped a few days ago to ~26.80 but has since fell hard. Has now bounced around it's recent model T. Seems to be struggling with the rest of commodities.

In Oct $30 calls (callout from OA) with plenty of time but probably needs to be cut around that $22 area.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Looks like possible high volume reversal candle on FSLR after a gap up today. May be a good short/put candidate soon…
Brian Earl Spilner
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Too early to call a June bottom?
Brian Earl Spilner
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topher06
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GOLD LEAPs have not sucked the last two days.
sts7049
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yes
Brewmaster
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Mancini saying 4030 is a magnet for this leg and major resistance

I should clarify, 3920/3940 support must hold if we retest it.
Chef Elko
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Gotta reload on CIDM every time it hits $.50
Brewmaster
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what a puke!
Brian Earl Spilner
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She dead?
FJ43
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Sure hope y'all played the SPY chart I posted. Right into red major SR then pulled. I went short at 400.50s for next week.

They are up 60% already but set a trail. Driving and trading.

Next trade.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

sts7049
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choppy chop chop. not picking a direction just yet, touching 4010 was a key level so maybe a pullback there is no big deal. as long as we keep holding 3960
FJ43
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FJ43 said:

Sure hope y'all played the SPY chart I posted. Right into red major SR then pulled. I went short at 400.50s for next week.

They are up 60% already but set a trail. Driving and trading.

Next trade.


Trail triggered. This was a scalp trade not a hedge. You can look at a chart and time stamps as to the buy and why trail triggered.

Still holding VIX calls.




Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

topher06
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This has been pretty wild chop today
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