Ag CPA said:

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This BBBY action is incredible.

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Really hope there isn't a single person on this board that held thinking more to go.

FJ43 said:

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Ag CPA said:

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This BBBY action is incredible.

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Really hope there isn't a single person on this board that held thinking more to go.

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I sold my 21.5 put this morning for a nice profit. I read up on $30k's theta decay warning and bailed. Then later bought 8/26 at 11 put when it was at $18. AH is in the money. Then for sheets and giggles a 9/16 at 6.

Don't look back, you made money and preserved capital. Holding those puts would have been playing with fire. Which is fun sometimes but if your first options trade was a 10 bagger you'd be in an alley somewhere sucking **** for expiring otm calls by the end of the year. And nobody wants that
Edit...nevermind you're farther along than i thought. Which alley you gonna be working in next week?

59 South said:

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I am inclined to agree. A test of the rising 50 day in the 4100s would make some sense. Would also set up an inverse H&S. Who knows, I'm just bantering although I do think 4600 is more likely before 4000.

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4100's as in to fill the gap. Would be painful to be right on the direction but ultimately lose the bet by 100 points if markets then rallied to 4600.

oldarmy1 said:

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59 South said:

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I am inclined to agree. A test of the rising 50 day in the 4100s would make some sense. Would also set up an inverse H&S. Who knows, I'm just bantering although I do think 4600 is more likely before 4000.

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4100's as in to fill the gap. Would be painful to be right on the direction but ultimately lose the bet by 100 points if markets then rallied to 4600.

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He would surely have a stiff upper lip about the whole matter. He may make a mess in his jumper, though.

AW 1880 said:

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Any thoughts on LEAPs on CVX or XOM?

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I was focused on XOM Leaps for a long time. The Leaps have fallen out of favor for me as I have not seen them rebound to a point where I'd consider them again,....yet. I shifted to $105 October 21st Calls because -
1. Today, I like the premium and the time period. I believe the premium gets juiced as we head to XOM dividend pay out date on Sep 9th. The total time period (today through 10/21) is long enough to ride up and then retreat heading to October. I think a market buying opportunity develops in late Sep to Oct. I'll either buy back the Calls on a dip or let them ride. After a dip/retreat, I doubt the XOM share price would recover fast enough to Oct 21st to reach the $105 Strike level. Losing my shares feels slim to none. I'm okay if the shares are lost. Just means I have to get off my butt and repurchase. Yeah, I'm lazy, but more so I'm allergic to work. Going forward, I'd wait until November and re-establish a similar position, likely a 3 month forward position to January or February 2023 Calls.
2.. XOM earnings will come out after Oct 21st expiration and Q3 results should be almost as good as Q2 (Q2 was a historic record). Q3 crack spread is tracking very close to Q2.
3. XOM usually announces a dividend increase in Q3 too. I expect XOM will increase the $0.88 quarterly dividend to $0.92.
4. Eventually, there will be a credit rating performed on XOM. If the S&P can't seem to get it done, then I guess it's safe to say the S&P lost its credibility too. It's pretty sad how XOM is being treated politically. If the S&P had any balls, they would invite XOM back to the Dow 30 and kick that POS called SalesForce to the curb. Energy is under-represented in the 30 for as important as it is to the U.S. economy.
5. After the retreat in late Sep/Oct, the fundamentals support energy long term (> 12 months). I think there will be better opportunities for Leaps later. The way the energy complex has coiled over the last 3 months, 2023 should be a very good year for XOM and CVX.
6. I am treating CVX the same as XOM with Oct 21st Options favored over Leaps. I'm looking at CVX $170 October 21st Calls. A $65 spread between XOM $105's and CVX $170's should put the position where it needs to be.
7. The approximate quarterly Option income potential outweighs the Leaps today based on fundamentals.
8. I want those XOM $105 October Calls sold somewhere between $2.63 and $2.97. <---- Last week had you read this you would have thought I was nuts. After today, maybe not so much.. 59 South's statement about S&P 4600 made me smile.
9. Share price action, XOM needs to reach the $95-$96 level. Then,.... There's a nice gap from $97 to $100 and I think the gap gets filled as XOM approaches dividend payout on September 9th.
10. Those SPR releases of crude should stop October 18th or 10 days later. Crude is not in a build mode in the S&D. The fundamentals for WTI are strong. NatGas is looking good too! XOM is the #1 producer of NatGas in the U.S. and #2 in the world. Blackouts and frozen butts in Europe will be a helluva signal moving into 2023....I'm not waiting for that signal as the S&D has been signaling a bull stampede for months. Russia will get blamed for anything energy related in the media. Throw in the unlocking of the Chinese economy who has not been using oil for many many many months and the S&D goes into shock. That's an understatement. We/U.S. Govt continues to take releases from the SPR and load oil for export to China. Terrible. China is building a crude inventory and the U.S. is depleting its inventory.

Grab the popcorn.

Hope this made sense and helps you.

irish pete ag06 said:

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Please tell me your venmo is really that.

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When I win, whoever has that venmo handle deserves the $100

Here we go:

• Rising 8 & 21 week ema, 8 about to cross over the 21
• Due some consolidation - sideways with back test of 4100ish to close the gap at 4137.30?
• 50 day sma is about to start rising fast as lowest days from mid June drop off
• A break up of the rising channel would be a recapture of the 200 day sma and the 50 week sma right around 4325-4340 setting up a potential true melt up scenario (not saying this is likely but always possible... go look at what happened in late May - early June 2020 the last time this happened, similar sentiment to now)
• Lots of fuel for a short squeeze... need to find the tweet and will post below....
• Rationality says we can't go higher short term - markets are rarely rational, although I'd say they can routinely be 'predictably irrational'
• Look at the symmetry! Could it fully cup? Earlier this year look at all the sequential red candles 10 of 11 weeks - now why couldn't we have green this time? By the same count we are only on week 5! Buckle up chaps!

59 South said:

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The ole Tilted Nessie formation. If 1-2 of the McInnises were around we'd already have that drawn up.

sts7049 said:

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futures not bullish this morning

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Green by 2pm - #permabulls