I think this is understated. With gas and food prices spiking this year, people are blowing through credit cards and mounting debt rapidly (after paying back record amounts during COVID!). Car repo's are up and I imagine home mortgage defaults or payment delays won't be too much farther behind.
Stock Markets
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Last: 10 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
Beyond inflation I'm watching first hand the spending frenzy of many different people. And I know their income levels. It's just math.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
I live in a predominately lower income, very rural, mostly agriculture workers town. There is no way some of these folks out here are spending the way they are making the income they do. It's about to start crashing down.
When I see them swapping out vehicles in shorter time frames, they are extended.
When I see them swapping out vehicles in shorter time frames, they are extended.
I would go end of October, the hammered those today. Popped over her downtrend line today and pulled back. AAPL always the least to good, but usual Sept-Oct weakness should come. I am in 165's December though, got in today.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Did AAPL show a reversal candle today? Model T retracement time? Maybe 160P (gap below 160) like 2 months out? Am I warm?
OI is interesting. Volume increasing. Dec expiry.BaylorSpineGuy said:
What expiration are those puts? Pretty serious volume there.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
It's like gravity. They will come down for those who tried to defy reality.Spoony Love said:
I live in a predominately lower income, very rural, mostly agriculture workers town. There is no way some of these folks out here are spending the way they are making the income they do. It's about to start crashing down.
When I see them swapping out vehicles in shorter time frames, they are extended.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
All I want is a VIX move to 25 in the next 2 weeks. Momma FJ needs spending money.lobwedgephil said:I would go end of October, the hammered those today. Popped over her downtrend line today and pulled back. AAPL always the least to good, but usual Sept-Oct weakness should come. I am in 165's December though, got in today.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Did AAPL show a reversal candle today? Model T retracement time? Maybe 160P (gap below 160) like 2 months out? Am I warm?
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
irish pete ag06 said:
Great minds. I entered a 155 Dec put today.
I feel like it's holding up the whole market and when it flushes it will be blood time.
I know I'm still relatively new to the stocks game, but there have got to be easier ways to make money than betting against AAPL.
Ok here's one I'm watching for a possible trade.
SPY breaks 422.93 and I'll look at a Friday lotto downside (on an intraday attempted reversal) or to next weeks expiry (420P possibly ) for the short.
FJ out for tonight. 2:30AM rise incoming. Y'all have a great evening.
SPY breaks 422.93 and I'll look at a Friday lotto downside (on an intraday attempted reversal) or to next weeks expiry (420P possibly ) for the short.
FJ out for tonight. 2:30AM rise incoming. Y'all have a great evening.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
It was a small position and I have a bad habit of being too early on things. It showed a tad bit of struggle with that trend line. If it shows solid continuation over it, I'll cut it loose.
Also potentially can see some seasonality.
And, I'm a current bear who thinks this thing is about to crap the bed again.
Also potentially can see some seasonality.
And, I'm a current bear who thinks this thing is about to crap the bed again.
I'm long VIX too. When I saw your posts a while back about it I was fired up that I had seen the same thing.
irish pete ag06 said:
Also potentially can see some seasonality.
All that's showing is that it goes up basically all year. The only noticeably fall prior to Dec expy is in Nov.
I generally agree. AAPL is also a hard one to figure. Sometimes even when flow shows up it doesn't run when it should.Brian Earl Spilner said:irish pete ag06 said:
Great minds. I entered a 155 Dec put today.
I feel like it's holding up the whole market and when it flushes it will be blood time.
I know I'm still relatively new to the stocks game, but there have got to be easier ways to make money than betting against AAPL.
I traded puts on MARA this week to decent gains. It was extended and is typically quite volatile. TSLA is a good short this week too (scalp puts or go long SARK on run ups). I'm still long some SARK.
very nice. so once it breaks the trend line you go short.FJ43 said:
Ok here's one I'm watching for a possible trade.
SPY breaks 422.93 and I'll look at a Friday lotto downside (on an intraday attempted reversal) or to next weeks expiry (420P possibly ) for the short.
FJ out for tonight. 2:30AM rise incoming. Y'all have a great evening.
Brutal. pic.twitter.com/kP7JHCxF2A
— Ivan the K™ (@IvanTheK) August 17, 2022
I know we were discussing some setups last night but don't think anyone has mentioned it but this week is OpEx, so there may be some premium killing moves (just to consider).
Yesterday was VIXperation as well - no idea quite the significance of this one though. Carsan usually mentions a "window of weakness" once the VIX expires but others who are more knowledgeable in volatility trading could provide more depth.
Yesterday was VIXperation as well - no idea quite the significance of this one though. Carsan usually mentions a "window of weakness" once the VIX expires but others who are more knowledgeable in volatility trading could provide more depth.
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Spoony Love said:
When I see them swapping out vehicles in shorter time frames, they are extended.
Like instead of trading in when they need new tires, now they're doing it when it's time for an oil change?
Buying $CVX commons premarket.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Any reason leading to why?
Crude looks ready to rally and CVX has broken out of its downtrend. This is a good R/R spot.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
NVDA looks to be bouncing off that $181 range. Would love to see it drop back down to that at market open and get a couple $190 calls
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For those of you that trade commodities, do they tend to follow similar TA principles as stocks? If yes then do oil prices, specifically, tend to follow those similar TA or is it a bit of a different animal?
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CVX has its Ex-Eff or Ex-Div today. If entering in Pre-Market should be able to capture a little bit more of some share adjusted price. I bought more CVX last week at $156.60. I bought CVX because my XOM is overweight.
Regarding WTI crude, welcome aboard! The S&D doesnt lie and it's been telling the truth for months. EIA data this week shows a draw versus a build. LOL! It's been a draw for months when the SPR releases are subtracted from supply. Releases should stop around Oct 18th. This Administration may try to drag out releases passed Oct 18th if they dont meet the total release quantity by the stop date. Anything to keep the pump price down until Mid-Term elections are over. Regarding the conspiracy side of the 2 missing EIA reports in July...nothing balances within reason since. The numbers are jacked but the truth will surface.
After all the above is said and done, I figure WTI will hit $120 in 2022 and average $105 in 2023. Get ready for $5+ gasoline.
Going back to beatin' my (oil) drum all day.
GLTA! and PTLA!
Regarding WTI crude, welcome aboard! The S&D doesnt lie and it's been telling the truth for months. EIA data this week shows a draw versus a build. LOL! It's been a draw for months when the SPR releases are subtracted from supply. Releases should stop around Oct 18th. This Administration may try to drag out releases passed Oct 18th if they dont meet the total release quantity by the stop date. Anything to keep the pump price down until Mid-Term elections are over. Regarding the conspiracy side of the 2 missing EIA reports in July...nothing balances within reason since. The numbers are jacked but the truth will surface.
After all the above is said and done, I figure WTI will hit $120 in 2022 and average $105 in 2023. Get ready for $5+ gasoline.
Going back to beatin' my (oil) drum all day.
GLTA! and PTLA!
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I've traded uso quite a bit and I'd say it's far more "rational" than stonks, there are waves and retracements etc but at the end of the day its a real thing that's being produced and sold, and purchased and used, so the "real" value tends to get fleshed out pretty quickly. In addition to less influence due to market sentiment there are fewer, and well defined inputs that affect price, price tends to adjust fast after those come out (eia report, opec announcements, etc). Because of all this i think it's tough to really trade oil futures without gambling, but no problem investing on longer term (quarter, maybe) trend hypotheses
That's what it feels like
SAVA round #2 today.
AUSTIN, Texas, Aug. 18, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Cassava Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: SAVA), a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on Alzheimer's disease, was recently informed by the Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer's Disease (JPAD) that there is no convincing evidence to support allegations of data manipulation in a 2020 paper on simufilam co-authored by the Company's personnel and its science collaborators.
AUSTIN, Texas, Aug. 18, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Cassava Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: SAVA), a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on Alzheimer's disease, was recently informed by the Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer's Disease (JPAD) that there is no convincing evidence to support allegations of data manipulation in a 2020 paper on simufilam co-authored by the Company's personnel and its science collaborators.
My strategy today is really for tomorrow. If we see an inside day, and that would be a big if, I'm adding some puts for a lotto tomorrow at close. Not sure about the strike but probably well OTM.
If it breaks to the down side, I have a trading zone between 419-424 and I'll be looking for longer puts from there.
I don't see the advantage for calls yet.
If it breaks to the down side, I have a trading zone between 419-424 and I'll be looking for longer puts from there.
I don't see the advantage for calls yet.
I sweated out an early run, then bailed out on a dip at $4.20 on my $2.52. I'll take it.FJ43 said:I'm a redneck addicted trader......but....take your money.HtownAg92 said:
Okay, BBBY continues to sheet the bed hard afterhours, but my option sell price isn't moving I guess because I wasn't in the money at close. Surely I can wait until open tomorrow for my option price to catch up and correlate with opening share price and then sell it? And if there is no sign of the wsb's moving it back up, let it tank some more?
Singles, doubles and the occasional home run. But manage risk and take gains.
Thanks for all the guidance, guys.
More from the discussion last night. Thought about this while listening to Bloomberg this morning.
If you guys are looking for an interesting play, consider ITB. I'll be watching this one close. Below $60, it'll be a good put buying candidate. Home buying ETF. Has been in a bear flag/rally last couple months, but further rate hikes may really bring this ETF down. Worth watching at least.
If you guys are looking for an interesting play, consider ITB. I'll be watching this one close. Below $60, it'll be a good put buying candidate. Home buying ETF. Has been in a bear flag/rally last couple months, but further rate hikes may really bring this ETF down. Worth watching at least.
21EMA and mean ATR is right at 154.71. Stop loss right under that?$30,000 Millionaire said:
Buying $CVX commons premarket.
ENVX looking ready to dump again.
I suspect it will see next support at $20
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Super boring inside day today, face rip tomorrow
Any questions on $CVX, amateurs? I locked in the profits with an ITM covered call.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Straight up garbage manipulation. This thing should be selling off as it is over extended.
I think it sells off tomorrow. Crushing premium today.
I'm watching SPY for what it's worth.
I'm watching SPY for what it's worth.
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