I've traded uso quite a bit and I'd say it's far more "rational" than stonks, there are waves and retracements etc but at the end of the day its a real thing that's being produced and sold, and purchased and used, so the "real" value tends to get fleshed out pretty quickly. In addition to less influence due to market sentiment there are fewer, and well defined inputs that affect price, price tends to adjust fast after those come out (eia report, opec announcements, etc). Because of all this i think it's tough to really trade oil futures without gambling, but no problem investing on longer term (quarter, maybe) trend hypotheses