Watching for the test of the 10DMA may come in to play for me today if we can't get beyond 410. If below that until after lunch hour, I would think we see a dive toward testing the 10dma. You're right, supply is low.

Pelosi's plane landing safely caused VIX to drop 1.2 points so far.

Irish 2.0 said:

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This market has every reason to go lower, but the ****ng Fed keeps propping it. This is only delaying the inevitable and the 'soft landing' rhetoric is going to **** a lot of people

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I don't even see how the Fed is propping up the market. I know QT isn't happening very quickly like it should, but the interest rate hikes have only just begun if you ask me.

WIRP is basically saying the market doesn't believe the Fed has the stones to get inflation under hold and force a recession. Only 3 hikes priced into Treasury markets right now. There will be no soft landing here--we were so propped up for so long, that the fall is inevitably going to be hard.

irish pete ag06 said:

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This is just a bear market rally, and it has a long way to go to not be one. If you zoom out on the weekly, still not even close to showing a full reversal yet.

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Agreed. I was just saying I don't agree that it's the Fed "propping it up". The market is propping itself up until the Fed kicks the other crutch away and it drops again.

Mathematical potential is certainly there for the scenario presented but PE has been staying above 15 since the 90's, and what I would consider a modern market. I think PE stays above that long term barring any intentional destruction of our economy (although this admin is certainly trying)

More investors today then ever before and that usually keeps PE high because everyone is sharing risk and now willing to take on a little more. Just my opinion of course.

Fed's Daly Reset the Tone on Fed Hawkishness... 2.71 10 Years Back in the Mix


We knew that the Powell dovishness of last week was misplaced... We said as much yesterday as inflation numbers are much too high for where the revised "after Powell" market was thinking... Daly reset that tone this morning with an Uber Hawkish speech... 10 Years, which had gotten down through our 2.55 resistance, to 2.51 are now back to above 2.70... A 19 basis point move... So much for 2.375 10 years... She also crushed the curve where 2/10 got to minus 34.6... Now that is back to just above 30....Equities are still working off a different narrative... Question is where do we go from here?... Lots of new longs have gotten smoked after the shorts got smoked in the post Fed trading days... But jolts numbers are showing some small weakness... And we think the employment number could be a market mover on Friday... The Pelosi trade has lost some legs but the Chinese response has gone from immediate to stepping up Military exercises... 2.71 should have a magnet effect on where legacy longs and shorts have some room to move... But for now Daly has reset the narrative

Yuge volume spike on $U

Close enough to 4140. I'm exiting some runners I had and waiting for a reset

Can someone smarter than me explain that ticker HKD that Baylor mentioned yesterday? I am not in it but I am very confused how a stock can run from $12 to now $1,455 in a few weeks on basically no volume. Today's volume alone is barely over 200k shares traded and its up over $700 as of this post. I just don't understand how that is possible.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Hard spot here. I think SPX probably gets up to 4140 area today. When sell comes, it will be fast and unexpected. This is boring / dull market territory. You don't want to be short a dull market.

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spot on

Decay said:

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EVERYONE BUY GME BEFORE IT GOES OFF AGAIN

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Don't forget AMC

Irish 2.0 said:

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This market has every reason to go lower, but the ****ng Fed keeps propping it. This is only delaying the inevitable and the 'soft landing' rhetoric is going to **** a lot of people

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****ing FINALLY!! Mester is who was needed to blow the whistle I guess. Give us a nice inverted hammer and lets have a repeat of June. RIP OFF THE ****ING BANDAID!!!!

Plankton account problems, was out of buying power right before that knife... wanted to load puts so bad.

Things finally looking up for my inverted plays. Had one more set of trailing stop buys for SQQQ and SPXU that hit right as the downturn started. A little more here and I'll be at break even and ready to see some green.

Unfortunately I also bought some UPRO in my Roth as a hedge, but whatever. Feel much better with my UPRO bleeding than my SPXU.

Down to 390 again over next two weeks?

Triple_Bagger said:

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Bob Knights Liver said:

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Triple_Bagger said:

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SAVA Degenerates; there's some unusual volume on this weeks C20. They're supposed to announce Q2 earnings this week so they might give an update on the clinical trials. Might just be shorts hedging, but it's a cheap lotto ($30).

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I've mentioned before that I opened a bunch of GTC SAVA 1/2024 call credit spreads at various stokes, that would Mac out at 100:1 payout. The five $120/$150 spreads executed this morning. There's something going on with SAVA. It may simply be earnings anticipation, but something is up.

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Most of those weekly C20s were day trades yesterday. Over 3,000 in volume and only 800 OI today. I sold mine for $52 this morning (+73%). Still holding shares and 1/2024 C120/150 spreads.

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Those C20s are $124 now (+300%)