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24,634,766 Views | 233281 Replies | Last: 32 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
Heineken-Ashi
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Sorry for the lack of an update. Too many Heinekens.

https://assets3.cbsnewsstatic.com/hub/i/r/2011/06/30/6923e8da-8ba1-11e2-9400-029118418759/thumbnail/620x465/ab35d352686ba50ebec294a9eb5a488b/passedoutdrunk_iStock_000014886350.jpg

On Friday we had a "slow down" beer candle. Remember that beer candles open at the halfway point of the body of the preceding candle (the average of the open and close) and close at the average of the high, low, open and close of the current period. It's an average of the period you are looking at. And we've been watching daily beer candles with our money invested at the confirmation of the start of the trend and waiting for a confirmation of reversal to sell. So a slow down is noted with the blue arrow. We didn't quite hit our resistance point, but got close enough. And for the second candle in a row, the body was smaller than the preceding one despite no lower wicks and continuation of uptrend. We did not sell. But we start to get cautious.

For today's update, we have out FIRST lower wick of the trend. While not always a sign of reversal, more times than not, it is the first signal. See the left pointing red arrow at today's candle and the up pointing red arrow showing a lower wick'd green candle during an uptrend. We do like that this one was small. Might be consolidation. We are not sellers yet. But we are watching very closely now. What we want, for us to stay invested, is the body of tomorrow's candle to go higher than the top of the body from the highest candle in this trend, which is Friday's candle. That would signal confirmation that the uptrend is more likely to continue than not. If it doesn't get there but also refrains from having a lower wick, we stay invested but stay cautious. If it doesn't get there and DOES have a lower wick, we get up on our toes and ready to exit in case of emergency. And if it finishes red we bail. Because even if the trend continues, a red candle is a massive signal of a reversal of trend.

With our long term resistance line and our short term resistance channel still not being hit, it is likely that we will either continue upward until one is hit, or continue upward at a decreasing pace until reversal. A break of both resistance lines with no lower wick will be the most bullish confirmation we can get. And we might even add to our position.

https://i.imgur.com/WAV3R7e.png

https://i.etsystatic.com/6958638/r/il/ef850b/921859168/il_1140xN.921859168_ompr.jpg
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Brewmaster
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AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:

This is why I largely don't accept the "priced in" phenomenon. If this recession that is brewing is priced in and already accounted for, AMZN/COST/TGT/WMT/HD wouldn't have all dropped 2-5% AH tonight.

It's simply a script for the media to follow.
ding ding ding! Yeah bear markets don't price anything in quickly. I'm paraphrasing Mancini, but basically he has said before, bear market rallies can be strong, multi day or even multi week rallies, followed by continued downtrend (usually slow grind down).
Dan Scott
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AG
Overnight reaction post Walmart is interesting. The dollar is losing steam and oil is up.
cptthunder
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I might be way over my skis on this but with the extreme heat, lack of rain, high cost of fertilizer, high diesel cost is there a projected shortage in hay for the coming winter?
If there is would it be significant enough to cause a decrease in beef production resulting in increased beef prices? I have zero back ground in this area but figured this would be a place to throw out the idea. Anyone know a etf such as $CORN or $WEAT for cattle?
All I have found at this point is $COW
Txducker
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AG
Dan Scott said:

Overnight reaction post Walmart is interesting. The dollar is losing steam and oil is up.
I agree. Recession definitely was not priced in based upon that big drop in price. There must be a lot of fear not priced in the market already. This makes me wonder if I should be loading up on sqqq before tech earnings this week based upon the response to walmart.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Big couple of days here!
BaylorSpineGuy
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Bob Knights Liver said:



Big couple of days here!


MSFT and GOOG report this afternoon.
austinAG90
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AG
Treasury Inversion Flashed Recession.Walmart/UPS Slowdown Increasing..Fed Awaits

The Fed meeting starts in 2.5 hours at 10.30 this morning... They will be discussing inflation versus a clear slowdown... Equities overnight were negative as Walmart surprised investors with the dramatic slowdown in volumes and earnings... Consumers, certainly at the lower end of incomes, are struggling with higher gas prices (down 20% recently) and higher food prices... UPS said that shipping was off as people are buying less... Not all are bad, GE came out good earnings... But back to markets...

Treasuries bull flattened as the inversion 2/10 reached negative 25 (now 24)... This puts it between the most inverted since 2000... In 2006 it got to negative 20 while in 2000 it got to negative 51.. These are very different markets than those two markets... But even 3 month bills to 10 years are inside 30 basis... Only a matter of time before that inverts based on momentum...10 YEARS HAVE STRONG RESISTANCE AT 2.71 TODAY... We thought it would get there before the Fed meeting... That is the line in the sand for the next move...if 2.71 breaks, the next level could be 2.50 and this would start the Fed to rethink future rate increases... To be perfectly technical and using 10 year futures, CTA's start to cover their legacy shorts at 120-19, which was the July 6 highs... And start to go long above 121-13... Currently 120-04... With Wall Street muted due to regulations and years of Fed manipulation, along with the Fed on the sidelines with QT replacing QE, the next BIG MOVE in rates will be a battle of the big flow traders... CTA's versus HF's and volatility players...2.50 would be the next stopping point...THE FED DOES NOT WANT THAT...

The Fed... Meeting starts today at 10.30... We still see 75 basis point tomorrow, which we think will be the last of the 75 numbers for a good while... 50 in September, then 25 in November...after that we expect to see a continued slowdown in the US and globally, with lower inflation... We would be happy to see top line inflation numbers start to move towards 5%... We don't care about 2% until we get much lower... Will this stop the Fed?... Depends on a lot of things... We still do not see a recession, but the bond market is clearly building it in... The stock market is not there yet which continues to give fuel to the bears, like Wilson of MS...

Credit... 6 issuers came to market with 13.5 billion yesterday...some of the Floater issuance was canned due to lack of demand..spreads are wider as HY CDX has moved from 477 on Friday to 508 today... But bonds are still getting placed and there are buyers for the properly priced bonds... US corporations are in good financial shape...

Outlook... Which Jay Powell will show up tomorrow??.. The right leaning Hawk fighting nothing but inflation or the Dovish Governor who is equally worried about recession and the health of the consumer... Our colleagues at Citi see the Dove...WE DISAGREE... WE SEE A HAWK TOMORROW..Powell's window of opportunity is closing... If he really wants to fight inflation he has to take it up a notch... He does not want financial conditions to get loose again... He needs higher mortgage rates and the 10 year back above 3%... Even if inflation drops in half it is still too far away from the Fed objective of 2%....the markets will only give him a limited window to raise... If he raises too much, and that is what we think, the markets, rather than the Fed , will take away the Fed's punch bowl as the markets build in a strong recession... Then the Fed window is closed... The more the Fed raises, the higher the chances or severity of recession. The higher the severity of recession the lower long rates go... Lower long rates reduce mortgage rates... Lower mortgage rates give rise to continuing strength in housing... With 18% of GDP in housing, the stronger the markets... The stronger the markets, the bigger bid in equities... Treasuries and equities still have large short bases... And that will continue into the GDP and month end re-allocations... It should be a wild next 48 hours...
Brewmaster
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AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:

Bob Knights Liver said:



Big couple of days here!


MSFT and GOOG report this afternoon.
yep those 2 alone will decide the market direction, or honestly it's already been decided. We will find out!
BaylorSpineGuy
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Good morning! A question for you: you talk about QT replacing QE, but the Fed balance sheet is actually up since June if you look at the nyfed SOMA website.

Is this an accurate source for the Fed balance sheet? Seems they aren't tightening at all despite the language…

Would appreciate your insight.
texagbeliever
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AAPL is Thursday
texagbeliever
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My canary tech stock i look at is MSTR. It had a red day yesterday and is opening up to a 18 point drop potentially (7%).
BaylorSpineGuy
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Looks like HD may open down 7-8 pts. Major reversal Friday with some distribution and short covering late yesterday.
Colt98
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AG
Sndl??
cryption
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10:1 reverse split
Txducker
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AG
Amazon taking the walmart news hard. Down this morning.
ProgN
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I stole this from Rocky the Dog but it was funny
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I look for continued trappy, tricky action today
with Fed talks and ahead of big earnings and the big Fed news tomorrow. Tread lightly.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Closed my HD puts. 1.7 > 4.25. 150%. Will take it.
FishrCoAg
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AG
cptthunder said:

I might be way over my skis on this but with the extreme heat, lack of rain, high cost of fertilizer, high diesel cost is there a projected shortage in hay for the coming winter?
If there is would it be significant enough to cause a decrease in beef production resulting in increased beef prices? I have zero back ground in this area but figured this would be a place to throw out the idea. Anyone know a etf such as $CORN or $WEAT for cattle?
All I have found at this point is $COW


Hay is scarce and many cows are being sold off due to drought. Means lower numbers of fat cattle coming
Txducker
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AG
ProgN said:



I stole this from Rocky the Dog but it was funny
Very funny and inflation has been affecting polling data for a long time.
texagbeliever
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CRWD looks to have broken down from its upward channel looking at dailies in early may.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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**** me! What a ****ty tape. I'm down about $350 bucks. I should have walked away with the little profit from TSLA puts early.
Lake08
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Txducker said:

Amazon taking the walmart news hard. Down this morning.


Very unfair. AMZN is so much more than what WMT does…
texagbeliever
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Lake08 said:

Txducker said:

Amazon taking the walmart news hard. Down this morning.


Very unfair. AMZN is so much more than what WMT does…
SHOP news has to be hurting them as well. Basically their CEO admitted ecommerce market retracted post covid which he didn't expect.
texagbeliever
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2nd dump incoming? MSFT looking weak again needs to hold 254. AAPL losing 152. TSLA losing 790...
LMCane
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austinAG90 said:

Treasury Inversion Flashed Recession.Walmart/UPS Slowdown Increasing..Fed Awaits

The Fed meeting starts in 2.5 hours at 10.30 this morning... They will be discussing inflation versus a clear slowdown... Equities overnight were negative as Walmart surprised investors with the dramatic slowdown in volumes and earnings... Consumers, certainly at the lower end of incomes, are struggling with higher gas prices (down 20% recently) and higher food prices... UPS said that shipping was off as people are buying less... Not all are bad, GE came out good earnings... But back to markets...

Treasuries bull flattened as the inversion 2/10 reached negative 25 (now 24)... This puts it between the most inverted since 2000... In 2006 it got to negative 20 while in 2000 it got to negative 51.. These are very different markets than those two markets... But even 3 month bills to 10 years are inside 30 basis... Only a matter of time before that inverts based on momentum...10 YEARS HAVE STRONG RESISTANCE AT 2.71 TODAY... We thought it would get there before the Fed meeting... That is the line in the sand for the next move...if 2.71 breaks, the next level could be 2.50 and this would start the Fed to rethink future rate increases... To be perfectly technical and using 10 year futures, CTA's start to cover their legacy shorts at 120-19, which was the July 6 highs... And start to go long above 121-13... Currently 120-04... With Wall Street muted due to regulations and years of Fed manipulation, along with the Fed on the sidelines with QT replacing QE, the next BIG MOVE in rates will be a battle of the big flow traders... CTA's versus HF's and volatility players...2.50 would be the next stopping point...THE FED DOES NOT WANT THAT...

The Fed... Meeting starts today at 10.30... We still see 75 basis point tomorrow, which we think will be the last of the 75 numbers for a good while... 50 in September, then 25 in November...after that we expect to see a continued slowdown in the US and globally, with lower inflation... We would be happy to see top line inflation numbers start to move towards 5%... We don't care about 2% until we get much lower... Will this stop the Fed?... Depends on a lot of things... We still do not see a recession, but the bond market is clearly building it in... The stock market is not there yet which continues to give fuel to the bears, like Wilson of MS...

Credit... 6 issuers came to market with 13.5 billion yesterday...some of the Floater issuance was canned due to lack of demand..spreads are wider as HY CDX has moved from 477 on Friday to 508 today... But bonds are still getting placed and there are buyers for the properly priced bonds... US corporations are in good financial shape...

Outlook... Which Jay Powell will show up tomorrow??.. The right leaning Hawk fighting nothing but inflation or the Dovish Governor who is equally worried about recession and the health of the consumer... Our colleagues at Citi see the Dove...WE DISAGREE... WE SEE A HAWK TOMORROW..Powell's window of opportunity is closing... If he really wants to fight inflation he has to take it up a notch... He does not want financial conditions to get loose again... He needs higher mortgage rates and the 10 year back above 3%... Even if inflation drops in half it is still too far away from the Fed objective of 2%....the markets will only give him a limited window to raise... If he raises too much, and that is what we think, the markets, rather than the Fed , will take away the Fed's punch bowl as the markets build in a strong recession... Then the Fed window is closed... The more the Fed raises, the higher the chances or severity of recession. The higher the severity of recession the lower long rates go... Lower long rates reduce mortgage rates... Lower mortgage rates give rise to continuing strength in housing... With 18% of GDP in housing, the stronger the markets... The stronger the markets, the bigger bid in equities... Treasuries and equities still have large short bases... And that will continue into the GDP and month end re-allocations... It should be a wild next 48 hours...

these are the exact same prognosticators who LAST WEEK CLAIMED THERE WOULD BE NO RECESSION.
LMCane
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

Good morning! A question for you: you talk about QT replacing QE, but the Fed balance sheet is actually up since June if you look at the nyfed SOMA website.

Is this an accurate source for the Fed balance sheet? Seems they aren't tightening at all despite the language…

Would appreciate your insight.
You mean the Fed is saying one thing to the public but doing the opposite in private?

I'm in shock!!
HoustonAg2014
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AG
cryption said:

10:1 reverse split


Does this mean that I can't sell calls on this anymore? Because I don't see options on Robinhood or fidelity for SNDL. Just my current calls that expire in 3 days…
Chef Elko
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AG
Take it or leave it. I find the daily updates from austinAG90 insightful.
wanderer
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You won't be able to sell as many because of the reverse split. The option chain hasn't updated in ToS yet either. give it a few days and I'm sure the chain will be updated to reflect the higher prices.
cryption
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give it a couple days to update chains, but also do you still have enough shares to sell CCs?
Saltyag15
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AG
ASO is getting beat down pretty good today after WMT guidance. Continuing to watch it, as I plan to add more shares when/if it falls back down into the $30s.
Brewmaster
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AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:

Closed my HD puts. 1.7 > 4.25. 150%. Will take it.
well done doc!

n'm I'm a dumbass
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:

Good morning! A question for you: you talk about QT replacing QE, but the Fed balance sheet is actually up since June if you look at the nyfed SOMA website.

Is this an accurate source for the Fed balance sheet? Seems they aren't tightening at all despite the language…

Would appreciate your insight.


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