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25,108,987 Views | 233839 Replies | Last: 51 min ago by El_duderino
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Investor / professional persona here for a second:

Snapchat is a one-trick pony and they have yet to really innovate meaningfully beyond the original exploding message use case of their platform. It's not first choice for communicating for really anyone and they got their lunch money stolen by TikTok. People will use Facebook properties (IG, FB, What's App), LinkedIN, TikTok, Signal, or even Nextdoor before they'll use Snapchat. I can't remember the last Snapchat message I sent or received.

Google is a many-trick pony, but they are obviously heavily reliant on their cash cow ad business. The key thing with their ad business and why it's recession proof is that it is incredibly valuable for a business to come up first in a search, therefore they will pay for it. Google has a gigantic advantage over the other players because they have so much data and they have so much practice leveraging it to make money. They're also a legit head to head player in the content space (YouTube), the cloud space (GCP), and mobile (Android). I'll save hardware stuff for another day, but let me say that I think $QCOM is underestimated and everyone should own it.

The future of IT is not useless dogshiet like Roku, but it is entities that will differentiate through 1) monetizing data, 2) compute and XaaS capabilities (this includes current buzzwords AI/ML, SASE, and edge computing), and 3) meaningful cyber security capabilities - SIEM, advance threat protection, etc. Almost every software application in the world is now hosted on some type of public or private cloud. Almost anything requiring compute capabilities of any kind will run over one of the three hyperscalers. When there is more ubiquitous M2M capabilities like V2X for connected vehicle to connected vehicle communications, their reach will be even greater. If I were forecasting, I think these businesses will eventually be declared monopolies or be more heavily regulated once less stupid people are in congress. But that will not be anytime soon.

Tl;dr own $GOOGL and $MSFT not $SNAP
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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#3 in my missive above
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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I talked to a PE partner from a major firm today about taking an advisory position with some of their equities. They wanted some info out of me. The entire conversation was about Infrastructure as a Service, SIEM, SASE, and advanced threat protection. Look for unicorns in this space. It's where the next "Amazon" will come from.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Thriller
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

I talked to a PE partner from a major firm today about taking an advisory position with some of their equities. They wanted some info out of me. The entire conversation was about Infrastructure as a Service, SIEM, SASE, and advanced threat protection. Look for unicorns in this space. It's where the next "Amazon" will come from.
This is the stuff my oldest kid is talking about during his summer home. He's a CS major and looking hard at focusing on security when he has to start specializing.
cjo03
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

I talked to a PE partner from a major firm today about taking an advisory position with some of their equities. They wanted some info out of me. The entire conversation was about Infrastructure as a Service, SIEM, SASE, and advanced threat protection. Look for unicorns in this space. It's where the next "Amazon" will come from.


I'd prefer you just tell us which one to buy.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Smart choice. He needs to move to CA, Seattle, or Austin after graduation.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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cjo03 said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

I talked to a PE partner from a major firm today about taking an advisory position with some of their equities. They wanted some info out of me. The entire conversation was about Infrastructure as a Service, SIEM, SASE, and advanced threat protection. Look for unicorns in this space. It's where the next "Amazon" will come from.


I'd prefer you just tell us which one to buy.
Hashicorp
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Brian Earl Spilner
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I'm pretty much planning on dumping about $8k or so into GOOGL if it touches $108 or so. Already grabbed 20 shares at $111.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Smart choice. He needs to move to CA, Seattle, or Austin after graduation.

Then maybe that's a bad choice.
CC09LawAg
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Anyone have any thoughts on NextNav, Inc (NN)? Basically they're working on GPS along the Z axis to give first responders an exact location.

Seems like useful tech that is securing some important contracts with some good future use. Price is down.

Any thoughts?
austinAG90
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Wild Ride in Rates.... Bond Prices SOARING IN EUROPE... Treasuries New Low Yield

If you thought that this hot summer Friday was going to be a snoozer, you are wrong... It is wild times in the rates markets globally... European PMI flashed RECESSION THIS MORNING, with PMI's below 50... 51 was expected, 49.6 and 49.4 were delivered... This caught European government bonds short by fast money, after the ECB surprise 50 basis rate rise yesterday... The shorts are feeling massive pain...10 YEAR EGBS ARE BETTER BY 20... 5 YEARS BY 26...2YRS BY AS MUCH AS 30... Again rates volatility globally is crushing equity volatility... Now lets look at treasuries

10 year went from a high yield after the ECB announcement yesterday of 3.08 to 2.79 now... That is 30 basis points in less than 24 hours.. The rally overnight started around 3 am when the PMI's came out from Europe... The US YIELD CURVE IS STEEPENING AS RATE HIKES ARE BEING BUILT OUT OF FED EXPECTATIONS... IT NOW LOOKS LIKE NOVEMBER WILL BE THE LAST RATE RISE ACCORDING TO WIRP AND THEN EASING STARTS IN 2023.. Based on our analysis of WIRP, you have 75 next week, 50 in September and 25 in November...AND THAT IS IT... That leaves EOY rates at 3%... The front end of the yield curve loves that, but 2/10 still remains inverted by 19 basis...5/30, after inverting yesterday at minus 2 ,is now out to 14.. Crazy times... The full rate space is now below 3%... Hey Mortimer, weren't 2 years at 3.26 yesterday morning, and you are telling me that they are at 2.99 now?... crazy

What is driving this?... Shorts? Fears of recession?... So we are back to bad news is good for bonds... Does it mean it should be good for equities?... If equities fears are higher rates and 10 year is now at 2.80, should not equities rally?... We are seeing the best week in months in the HY sector

Credit... IG has had a great week, with 42.65 billion coming to market after a shut out last week... Only 15-20 were expected... Yesterday we only saw one issuer of 2 billion, all with good optics... US junk bonds are headed to their best week in 2 months with a 2% gain...CCC's are posting the biggest return since May ... Yields fell this week 49 basis to 13.12%.. Junk bonds as a whole dropped 39 basis this week to 8.17%... Will equities catch up?

Today is about rates... After breaking our resistance of 2 this morning we have the next objective of 2.74, which was the high of two weeks ago... 2.71 remains the line in the sand for legacy shorts... It does seem achievable but the Fed WILL NOT BE HAPPY TO SEE THAT BEFORE THE MEETING...Nonetheless 10 year break evens have gone from 2.78 high in June to 2.31 now.. Meaning that the bond market, who we think is more forward looking than the stock market, is predicting that inflation is going to recede in the coming months... And that the Fed will stop hiking much quicker than many expect... Expect a wild ride in rates today, but most of the move is already in for today... Have a great weekend
Brewmaster
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irish pete ag06 said:



What are yal's thoughts on this idea.
I think in general it's a great idea, but you have to remember we could rally another whole week (if just talking seasonality).
Brian Earl Spilner
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We actually going to 4020 this week?
TecRecAg
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irish pete ag06 said:



What are yal's thoughts on this idea.
I would, but more than 5DTE and ATM/ITM
Charismatic Megafauna
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If anybody's looking for friday lottos i think crwd is gonna dip and rip
tailgatetimer10
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Thriller said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

I talked to a PE partner from a major firm today about taking an advisory position with some of their equities. They wanted some info out of me. The entire conversation was about Infrastructure as a Service, SIEM, SASE, and advanced threat protection. Look for unicorns in this space. It's where the next "Amazon" will come from.
This is the stuff my oldest kid is talking about during his summer home. He's a CS major and looking hard at focusing on security when he has to start specializing.


Let me know if you need connections...
BaylorSpineGuy
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Fidelity just shafted me. Bought calls with B/A 1.68-1.69. I chose a market order and got filled at $2.03. WTF?!?
Charismatic Megafauna
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austinAG90 said:


If you thought that this hot summer Friday

I think he's back in Austin!
Charismatic Megafauna
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

I chose a market order

Wtf indeed, why would you ever do that?
BaylorSpineGuy
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Because there is lots of vol and OI. If B/A is a penny apart, why would the contract get purchased at 30 cents above the ask?!? Not sure I understand that
bmoochie
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

Because there is lots of vol and OI. If B/A is a penny apart, why would the contract get purchased at 30 cents above the ask?!? Not sure I understand that
Remember whatever you are buying, someone is selling. So someone had a Sell order for $.30 above and you were the lucky one to get it filled.
wanderer
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Hard to be upset at the platform. You're at the mercy of anything when you elect to use market orders, especially on options.
BaylorSpineGuy
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That's a $100 painful lesson. Not sure I get it in all details like why fidelity wouldn't get their customers something at the ask, but whatever. Lesson learned. Thanks
Brewmaster
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remember the ask is constantly changing, even if you see what looks like 1.69 -- someone could drop in a $2 (selling covered calls for example, they walk away from the PC hoping to get a fill at some point today). Voila! they got filled.
Charismatic Megafauna
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What ticker? I wouldn't expect that to happen on near the money spy but those sept 2 crwd spreads and last trades are really weird lately
Charismatic Megafauna
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Looks like a pennant going to complete in spy in about 15 minutes. Rocket?
BaylorSpineGuy
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SPY 400C expiring Mon when price was about 397.80 or so. There was about 36K volume on the day when purchase was made.

Lesson learned but painful. I cut for a small loss.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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BREwmaster said:

remember the ask is constantly changing, even if you see what looks like 1.69 -- someone could drop in a $2 (selling covered calls for example, they walk away from the PC hoping to get a fill at some point today). Voila! they got filled.
Money statement above.

Specific to Vanguard: If you have a Vanguard account, my opinion, don't ever enter a market order there. Second, when placing an Option order at Vanguard, have another screen session open at some other firm to check the Bid/Ask. Use the other systems B/A to make your determination on price to enter.

I have some super premium priced GTC Leap Call orders in the system now. I hope some day I see a fill confirmation hit the inbox. Sometimes the fish are biting..
Charismatic Megafauna
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That seems weird to me but i guess those dudes can move fast and one of my frustrations with fidelity is that the quotes are frozen when you have the order page up, you have to keep clicking refresh on the quote until you submit the order. Did you have the order up for a while before you committed?
Brewmaster
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well that escalated quickly. I was about to scalp calls, but Nope!
Charismatic Megafauna
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Still a higher low...seems like a lot of shaking going on, hopefully some shorts getting unwound?
BaylorSpineGuy
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Not sure. I'm shaking it off and moving on. Appreciate all the insight. The forest is full of wild animals. including the f'ing brokerage firms. The goal is to not get eaten in the forest. Now I've learned to camouflage myself better.
Brewmaster
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entered a very small put position, SPY

really need to lose 3980 though
Brewmaster
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out for a quick 20%! made enough for a nice dinner with Mrs. Brew.
consolidating around 3980 now
Charismatic Megafauna
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

If anybody's looking for friday lottos i think crwd is gonna dip and rip

Dip, and dip...
Max pain is 180, looks like they're going for it
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