Brokerage:

Guess I'm technically net free on TQQQ now?

Hit my stop at $29.35 on 250 shares (took a $400 loss), which puts me +$8,635 ytd on TQQQ.

Cost basis on my remaining 200 shares is $6,476, so I guess that counts as net free shares now. Was hoping it would hit $30.50 and I'd be close to net free on 300 shares rather than 200, but hey. Can't complain too much.

Ugh. Already bouncing. This is what I get for being too conservative. I upped my stop from $29 to $29.35 this morning and it bit me in the ass.

this is where mancini's levels and approach really helps. 3930/40 was a key level and the reaction there showed it holding.

i went short at the level too, but my mistake was going in too quick instead of seeing the reaction first. i should have waited for the level to show failure before buying MES short. i bailed quick for only a small loss.

This is what I still need to really work on.

I thought I had set it at just about the point where it would have failed that support, but I guess I put it just a little too high. I can't see the levels as easily as you guys can.

Just 15 cents lower on the stop would have saved me.

Yo, you're doing great with those moves. Don't get frustrated and keep working levels.

The leveraged play gets dicey, nice job making it work but don't get greedy. I made good money with TVIX (rip) and then lost about 1/3 in a few days bc of stupid moves.

What do we think of SPY reaching for 396 again? It has rejected those levels several times now.

Me neither. You can thank me for this with that heavy put bet.

Feels like it may need to fill the gap to 400, then back down we go.

Yeah, it seems fishy to me. I think we are about to see a fall after these earnings that is going to hurt a lot of folks.

We keep getting economic data indicating a recession coming. Once it's confirmed is when I think we will see a falling due to confidence in the market. These days ripping are the last bits of hope in the market IMO.

Wholesale prices came out today and still increasing, layoffs keep being reported, and just look at the drop in mortgage applications. It's coming, and I'm betting soon. The WH is not smart enough to manipulate the data sufficiently to avoid reporting a recession.

Hitting the gap up to 400 would be a good start to a downward trend.

TSLA was smart enough to manipulate their cash.

your analysis is too emotional. trying to predict where you think it should go isn't going to work.

I agree with emotion angle for sure. Trying to keep a clear head and manage expectations.

this is just July doing July things gents... seasonality don't give a damn about low volume:

I saw the news that Biden has Covid. They pulled it back a bit on that news, loaded up retail shorts, then ripped it. Dirty! We may get 4000 soon.

yeah I don't disagree with you, but listen to STS. I rarely pay attention to any of the news anymore and outside of yesterday, I'm doing tons better - just playing levels and scalping mostly.


side note, approaching premarket high. edit: broke it hard!

Man do I wish I had those 250 shares of TQQQ back.

So what would y'all see as a good entry for SQQQ right now? Or is it a bad idea at this point? It looks like QQQ just broke through a channel so the rally might continue...

4020ish is a big level, so if we're heading there now i wouldn't do anything until you see how it reacts there. seems likely to have some pullback around there.

59 South said:

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AgEng06 said:

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sts7049 said:

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who are you?

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Right? I thought trading tips and beer ads were 59South's game.

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Bullish trend set up, don't fight it. Maybe bear market rally, maybe not. Maybe bottom in, maybe not. Lots to be made either way here with swings and selling premium. No time for this middle aged lad to take advantage.

West Africa's finest this week.

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Is it any good? I wasn't impressed with the Portuguese beers

I've started a small position in SQQQ in my Roth. I'm gonna add to 400 on SPY little bits here and there.

If we move hard past 400, I'll cut it loose.

GreasenUSA said:

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Seeing many folks trying to find shorts over the last few days. Friends, we just closed over the 50 day moving average for the first time in 3.5 months earlier this week. I get it, we had to run a long way to get there, so it's natural to think a pullback should occur. But in cases like this (on this side of the 50 day moving average), the easier trades are going to be buying dips instead of trying to time shorts.

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Yeah, that's me.

irish pete ag06 said:

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GreasenUSA said:

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Seeing many folks trying to find shorts over the last few days. Friends, we just closed over the 50 day moving average for the first time in 3.5 months earlier this week. I get it, we had to run a long way to get there, so it's natural to think a pullback should occur. But in cases like this (on this side of the 50 day moving average), the easier trades are going to be buying dips instead of trying to time shorts.

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Yeah, that's me.

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Yeah, I get cute and try to outsmart the market all the time. I've paid dearly for it, and I'm sure I will continue to pay for it. But sometimes, it really is that simple.

I know my blow up 2 days ago is old news, but that's what was so frustrating after the fact.

Every fiber of my brain was telling me the bulls had control... the movement over the 50 day was a big part of it. But my emotion over ruled it.

GreasenUSA said:

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Seeing many folks trying to find shorts over the last few days. Friends, we just closed over the 50 day moving average for the first time in 3.5 months earlier this week. I get it, we had to run a long way to get there, so it's natural to think a pullback should occur. But in cases like this (on this side of the 50 day moving average), the easier trades are going to be buying dips instead of trying to time shorts.

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No one KNOWS if this is a bear market rally or a definite reversal, but charts are becoming more bullish. Just because you 'believe' it's gone to far, doesn't make it so. Just don't fight a trend, especially if you lost buying calls on the way down because 'it can't go any lower'. JMO

Yes it's a 1 minute chart but tyhat was a half a million volume bar testing out the demand zone. Going there again now.

demand zone reconfirmed

Actually pretty decent. Never had a Portuguese beer but the wine is very underrated

would have to think it's very similar to Spanish

I highly don't recommend Wadadli. It's the national beer of Antigua (went there in Med school and again for honeymoon). It tastes like Miller Lite.

Had some good beers when I lived in Michigan. I remember a peanut butter and raspberry beer that was just right!